Latest polls:

[Nicholas_J]

Newsweek: Bush 52, Kerry 41, Nader 3

Time: Bush 52, Kerry 41, Nader 3

Zogby: Bush 46, Kerry 43, Nader 3

ARG: Bush 47, Kerry 47, Nader 3

Rasmussen (9/5): Bush 48, Kerry 46

State Polls:
NM: Bush 45, Kerry 42, Nader 1

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/index.html


But Todays Rasmussen tracking polls has Bush and Kerry polling equal again, with Bush dropping several points over the last few days:

Election 2004

Presidential Ballot

Bush 47.6%
Kerry 46.5%
Other 2.4%
Not Sure 3.5%

RasmussenReports.com

[autorank]

1. & they can't even contact people on cells or swing shifts. n/t

[DaveinMD]

2. that doesn't matter

as long as the poll is weighted properly.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. there's the rub

we won't know till the election whether the weighting was 'proper'.

[autorank]

6. It might very well...

(1) There is a whole class of people 18-26/27 who rely entirely on their cell phones. They are off the telephone company grid entirely. If you can't get to them, you miss a noticeable portion of the electorate. The 'off the grid' practice is spreading to adults at a slower pace but among this group, its rampant. They carry their phones everywhere, they rerely if every listen to voice mails; they live on synchronous calls and text messages.
(2) Swing shift folks (3pm - 11pm and 11pm - 7am) are another interesting and real demographic. They're either at work or asleep when the pollsters call.

These are not mega demographics but they are significant groups that must be included for polls to be valid. I don't know how you weight for this if you don't know what it is? In the case of the cell creatures, there is no population data.

[DaveinMD]

3. that doesn't matter

as long as the poll is weighted properly.

[MallRat]

5. Time & Newsweek weren't, according to Rasmussen.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x757356

[Nederland]

9. Agreed

Zogby's the one that does it right and has the record to back it up.

[Teaser]

7. Bush will have a larger lead in Rasmussen tomorrow

Saturday's sample was *very* pro Kerry. Unless today's sample was too, Bush's number will go up tomorrow.

Still, no worries. Bush is still trending down in that poll.

[Demi_Babe]

8. the latest from MSNBC

If the presidential election were held this week, who would you vote for? * 630030 responses


George W. Bush
47%

John Kerry
52%

Ralph Nader
2%

[oasis]

10. That's a more realistic poll. James Carvelle predicts the same #s in Nov.