The Daily Widget, Fri 10/24 – O-387, M-151 – Four Red States Move Left; 10 Million Lead?

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Fri Oct-24-08 06:33 AM
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The Daily Widget, Fri 10/24 – O-387, M-151 – Four Red States Move Left; 10 Million Lead?

1. ANALYSIS

Twenty-seven new state polls were released yesterday, and although this was a lean-blue batch of polls, four red states move left today.

Ohio had been hovering within the margin of error all year long, but two new polls conducted in the first half of this week now show Barack Obama leading John McCain in Ohio by greater than 10 points with less than two weeks remaining. Ohio moves from the Lean Obama to the Weak Obama column today, and is now polling on average at Obama +6.2.

Indiana spent a couple days painted blue back in late June and early July, but since then it had been a lean-to-weak red state. Public Policy Polling showed Obama leading there by 2 points in a poll conducted over last weekend. A brand new Big Ten Poll is now showing Obama leading by 10 points in a survey conducted on Wednesday. Indiana moves from the Lean Obama to the Weak Obama column today, and is now polling on average at Obama +6.

The race in Georgia has been tightening over the past couple weeks. Rasmussen is now showing Obama trailing by only 5 points in Georgia, after a Democracy Corps poll showed him trailing by 2 points a few days ago. Georgia moves from the Weak McCain to the Lean McCain column today, and is now polling on average at McCain +3.5.

And finally, a new poll for Montana is showing Obama leading by 4 points there. Ron Paul is garnering 4% of the vote in Montana, while Naderbarr teams up to grab another 2%, leaving 10% undecided. Montana moves from the Weak McCain to the Lean McCain column today, and is polling with an ultra-small lead for McCain of +0.1. Any new poll showing Obama leading there will tip Montana blue on our map.

Wasn’t it just a couple days ago that Obama’s popular vote lead crossed the 8 million mark? We flew past the 9 million mark yesterday, and now Obama is 140,000 votes shy of leading McCain by 10 million votes nationwide. This is without even considering how Undecideds will vote, so Obama’s lead could very well be higher than this.

A 10 million vote lead, with only 11 days left!

2. NEW STATE POLLS

Scale:

Strong Obama (10% or greater)

Weak Obama (5% to 9%)

Lean Obama (0% to 4%)

Lean McCain (0% to 4%)

Weak McCain (5% to 9%)

Strong McCain (10% or greater)

Arkansas

Obama 36, McCain 51 (University of Arkansas, 10/11, +/- 2.5, 1500 RV)
California

Obama 56, McCain 33 (Public Policy Institute of CA, 10/19, +/- 3.0, 1186 LV)
Florida

Obama 49, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac University, 10/21, +/- 2.6, 1433 LV)
Florida

Obama 49, McCain 42 (St. Petersburg Times, 10/22, +/- 3.5, 800 RV)
Georgia

Obama 44, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Illinois

Obama 61, McCain 32 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Indiana

Obama 51, McCain 41 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Iowa

Obama 52, McCain 39 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Kansas

Obama 41, McCain 53 (Survey USA, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 613 LV)
Louisiana

Obama 41, McCain 57 (Rasmussen, 10/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine

Obama 56, McCain 35 (Critical Insights, 10/19, +/- 4.7, 443 LV)
Michigan

Obama 58, McCain 36 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 50, McCain 40 (National Journal, 10/20, +/- 4.9, 405 RV)
Minnesota

Obama 57, McCain 38 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Minnesota

Obama 56, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Montana

Obama 44, McCain 40, Paul 4, B1, N1 (Montana St U, 10/20, +/- 5.0, 403 RV)
Ohio

Obama 52, McCain 38 (Quinnipiac University, 10/21, +/- 2.7, 1360 LV)
Ohio

Obama 53, McCain 41 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 51, McCain 41 (National Journal, 10/20, +/- 4.9, 405 RV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 53, McCain 40 (Quinnipiac University, 10/21, +/- 2.6, 1425 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 42 (Morning Call, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 52, McCain 41 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)
Pennsylvania

Obama 53, McCain 41 (Survey USA, 10/22, +/- 4.0, 620 LV)
Texas

Obama 44, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 10/21, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Washington

Obama 54, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 10/22, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wisconsin

Obama 53, McCain 40 (National Journal, 10/20, +/- 4.9, 405 RV)
Wisconsin

Obama 53, McCain 40 (Big Ten Poll, 10/22, +/- 4.2, 575 LV)

3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.

^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)

^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.

4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT

^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.

^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.

^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.

5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN

^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.

^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.

^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.

6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE

^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.

^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.

^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).

^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES

Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes

EARLY VOTING RESULTS

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