Arizona: McCain 44% - Obama 40%

[arcos]

Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Likely voters

McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40

Early voters (34% of the sample)

McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/25/191756/56/488/642266

[tekisui]

1. A statistical tie on grampy's turf?

The race IS tightening!

[Lasher]

2. Ha ha, that would be a nice smackdown.

RCP has McLoser up by 11.3 without having taken this poll into account. But importantly, their most recent poll sample was from almost a month ago.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/az/arizona_mccain_vs_obama-570.html

[machI]

3. It will be a smack down, McCain is losing big time, even in Arizona

Anything less than a 15% win by mCcPAIN in his home state is a pure referendum by the people.

[TlalocW]

4. Obama should spend some resources there

Even if his internals say it's not worth it because it would unhinge McCain by making him believe he could lose his own state.

TlalocW

[arcos]

5. kick! nt

[Desertrose]

6. Another Obama kick from AZ

:woohoo:

I agree..wish Obama would give AZ some more love. ;)

[AzNick]

10. Yes.. 10EVs are worth it...

We wish we had had a rally here but we understand...

[AzNick]

11. Yes.. 10EVs are worth it...

We wish we had had a rally here but we understand...

[azmouse]

7. I've been seeing as many Obama signs as McCain signs.

I think AZ will be close.

[progressivebydesign]

8. Am I missing something? The sampling numbers are stupid.

"The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent." So many new people have moved into Arizona in the past 5 years, how could this be accurate with repubs and independents (which tend to be more repub) over sampled???

[Drunken Irishman]

9. Don't get your hopes up.

McCain will win Arizona by 9-10 points.

I generally don't take too much stock in party sponsored polls, as they clearly lean left/right by quite a few points most of the time. Obama isn't within four of McCain there and the only way I'll believe this is if a more known pollster (SurveyUSA, Rasmussen) backs it up.