The recent PA and NH polls make it seem virtually certain that Obama will win all the Kerry states, and the recent polls make it seem virtually certain that he will win Iowa and New Mexico. That leaves him with 264 electoral votes- 5 short of the 269 needed to tie and throw the election to the Democratic House of Representatives. Under that scenario, it seems almost certain that Obama would win the national popular vote (considering his huge inroads in states like Georgia, NC and Indiana, even if he doesn't win them), and it is hard to see how, in an electoral tie, a faithless elector or the House of Representatives could give the race to the candidate who lost the popular vote. Especially after what happened in 2000, our entire democracy would be an international joke. So basically, a tie is almost certainly an Obama win.
Obama will have his tie/win if he can carry Nevada's 5 electoral votes, even if he somehow loses in Florida, Ohio, NC, Virginia, Missouri, Indiana, and Colorado. So even if we have a crushing election night with narrow loss after narrow loss, Nevada remains there as our Alamo- we regroup there and defend it, and we tie/win.
With that in mind, these articles from the last few weeks look pretty encouraging:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/24/massive-democratic-advantage-early-voting-nevada/After six days of early voting in Nevada (5 electoral votes), Democratic turnout exceeds Republican turnout 57 percent to 27 percent.
When the early walk-in vote is combined with mail-in absentee vote, the Democratic advantage is 54 percent to 30 percent.
The Democratic vote margin in early and absentee voting (after six days) is 39,000 votes. On Wednesday, the early vote breakdown was 12,475 Democratic ballots to 6,961 GOP ballots.
In the state's most populous and Democratic county - Clark County - 20 percent of active (otherwise known as likely) voters and 16 percent of registered voters have cast ballots.
This activity strongly suggests an Obama victory in Nevada as his campaign has feverishly stoked early voting throughout the state and has had union muscle in Las Vegas encouraging in tandem.
John McCain's campaign is already looking at the prospect of loses in Colorado and New Mexico.
Combined, these three states account for 19 electoral votes - all of which Bush carried in '04.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/oct/09/mccains-absence-troubles-nevada-pols/The McCain camp won’t say how many paid staff members are in Nevada. Rogich said he did not know the exact size of that staff, but said it is “close to 30.”
The Obama campaign has about 100 paid staff members in the state.
A few Republican operatives, who declined to be named, offered blunt criticism.
The McCain campaign is “a joke,” one said. “There’s not a campaign in Nevada. A couple of guys, running around, being incompetent. Or even worse, arrogantly incompetent.”
The consultant said there was no discernible McCain ground game, which is political jargon for the massive effort needed to find likely supporters and get them to the polls.
He did hedge a bit, saying that if some earth-shattering event were to occur, McCain could still win in Nevada. Otherwise: “There’s not one single positive note for Republicans. I couldn’t be more pessimistic.”
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