Zogby poll to be released tonight will have Obama up 50-45 (+1 for both).

[Drunken Irishman]

Or so says Drudge.

The real numbers are 49.9 to McCain's 45.1. McCain gained a total point, Obama gained about .5 points.

[Curtland1015]

1. Meh. Typical weekend junk poll.

I expect it to be back to +7 or +8 by mid week.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. If anything, it shows Obama isn't losing ground.

For like three days straight Zogby had Obama losing points.

[BlooInBloo]

3. That's nice.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

4. Obama had a bad da in Zomby yesterday

He will improve in two days when that day gets off the average. In any case, Zomby has equal number of republicans and democrats in his sample, so Obama +5 should really be interpreted as Obama +11 or +12.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Obama had to have had a good day today to reverse the trend and gain nearly a point.

[Quixote1818]

7. Doesn't he weight his polls according to % of party affiliation?

How would his poll be scientific otherwise?

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Yes, based on 2004's numbers.

Which makes it very suspect.

[Quixote1818]

12. Then he is pathetic. At least Gallup has two models to go by. nt

[Quixote1818]

5. This just means Obama is winning by 15 in the blue states 5 in the swing states

and losing by 10 in the red states. These nationwide polls are a waste of time when Obama continues to build leads in states like MO, NV, CO, VA, MT, ND, OH, GA, and IA.

[pnwmom]

9. I don't think the "real numbers" should be stated with a decimal point

because that implies a level of precision that doesn't exist. Remember the margin of error is about 3 full points.

[Drunken Irishman]

10. True, but it does indicate Obama bounced back in the poll.

Since he was losing ground the past three days.

[pnwmom]

14. That's only if you believe he ever dropped! I don't, since the differences

were all within the margin of error.

[Trajan]

11. I have been thinking about a game of Texas Hold'M, like WPT style ...

You know: You get two hole cards ..... And each hand is assigned a probability percentage based on the possibility of improving the hand to win ....

Then you get the flop: And the percentages for each hand changes depending on what cards are already out and which cards remain .... If the loser doesnt improve, his percentage drops ....

Then the turn card: Again: If the losing hand doesnt hit, his percentages drop again, while the percentages for winning hand improves ....

If, at the River; He doesnt hit: It is game over .... Winner is 100% .. Loser = 0%

McCain HAS to improve his hand .... EVERY day that goes by and HE doesnt gain AND Obama doesnt decrease: McCain's percentage drops ....

It gets harder and harder to make up the difference as we approach election day ....

I read today that Obama is at 97% and McCain is at 3% ....

When Obama goes up: McCain's percentage drops, even if he increases by the same amount ...

The fact that BOTH sides improved shows a possible solidification of support .... McCain cannot win if the numbers stick .. He needs to dislodge Obama's numbers ....

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Look for Obama to again build a lead throughout the week.

Saturday through Tuesday seems to be McCain's best polling days, but once Wednesday rolls around, Obama solidifies his lead.