Why McCain WON'T: For those of you freaking out about this Newsweek article...

[Vektor]

http://www.newsweek.com/id/165657/output/print (Newsweek - Why McCain Won?)

Please don't.

Obama is doing better than merely "flirting" with several of the key swing states mentioned in the article.

He is 7 - 9 points ahead in New Hampshire, depending which polls you're looking at, and 6.5+ ahead in Colorado and Virginia. New Hampshire is SOLID Obama, and he's doing a lot better than "flirting" with Colorado. He has very healthy leads in New Mexico, (+8.4) and is rock solid in Pennsylvania (+11.2).

He's ahead anywhere from 1-3 points in Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana. McCain will not win all of those states. The article is written from the most pessimistic and unlikely angle one can possibly muster.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/#data

It's absolute puckey to believe that independents are going to break in huge numbers for McCain. His campaign is a joke, and nobody but the most frothing, mouth-breathing rabid right wing of the Republican party are big on Palin, and would want to risk a Palin presidency. I have a sneaking suspicion that indy's will come out for Obama in big numbers. We'll just have to wait and see.

Most importantly, let's consider the "6 points that he will lose because of race..."

While that's a generous estimate (generous for Republicans) let's not forget the African American population who are mobilized, (and other people of color) and voting (not just "staying home" if they are in the 18-24 age group) but VOTING - all ages. They are showing up in record numbers for early voting, and are registering to vote like never before. I seriously doubt that they are going to stay home this time. Those who haven't been able to take advantage of early voting will show up on election day. 2008 is an entirely different ball-game.

This election cycle is VERY, VERY different from past elections, and the energy surrounding it is something entirely new.

Perhaps many African Americans have never felt like their voices were being heard, or their votes being counted. Maybe they watched year after year, election after election as "old white guys" fought for the presidency, and thought "what do they have in common with me?"

I am not speculating here. I live and work in a very culturally diverse area, and I talk to my colleagues quite a bit about this election. I have heard many people of color say they are "getting out there" for the first time and are voting for the first time, because they feel like the political landscape is finally opening up to include more people, from different walks of life, and they want to be a part of it - they want to cast their vote. Many already have, and it wasn't for McPasty.

So, while I realize that it's a Republican's wet dream that racists and Reluctant Floridian Jews are going to be the demographic that decides this election, that is bullshit. There are far more more people in this country who will show up and cast a vote for Barack Obama because they CAN identify with him than there are those who will not vote for him because he is black.

Think about it.


Inspired by Barack Obama, African Americans, and other people of color are realizing that one of their own may very well become President, and that their vote is important - that they can help make it happen. They are the OTHER side of the "percentage point difference that race is going to make."

Sure, some bigoted a-holes might refuse to vote for Obama simply because of his dreamy mocha skin, (their loss!) but MILLIONS will vote for him BECAUSE OF IT. (And, of course, because he is an awesome leader, with an amazing platform, and high hopes for this country.)

Please DUer's...don't let a miserable pessimistic article get you down. While I never advocate getting TOO confident, this article is way too one sided, way too unlikely.

Is my opinion exact science? No, but it is the observation of a keen observer, just reporting what I see on the ground, what I hear around me, and of course, what is actually going on in the polls right now.

I thought it might be worth it to mention that there IS another way of looking at the election besides the nay-saying manner in which Newsweek laid it out in the above mentioned article. We have a lot going for us here, guys. We need to GOTV like never before, and keep working our butts off until it's all said and done...but are we doing pretty good?

I think so.

[quiet.american]

1. Thank you. nt

[Vektor]

3. You're welcome!

And while I know it's never a good thing to be over confident, I firmly believe that there is no way McCain is going to come up from behind and just sweep every state.

That's just way too out in left field.

[ThatsMyBarack]

2. Thanks for clarifying this, Vektor!

:patriot: :hi:

[Vektor]

5. You are very welcome!!

I think that article was waaaay too over the top negative.

I just wanted to counter it with a little more optimism, even if I do not believe in being over confident. Cautiously optimistic is more like it. :-)

[BlueIdaho]

4. MSM in full blown Republican Support Team Mode - Let them know what you think.

Time to email the usual suspects - call bullshit on them and remind them they need to have a future after all the Democrats sweep into office on November 4th.

[Hardrada]

8. They will have a future. Hopefully in those secret camps which

we can use to re-educate them. Oh, I wish.

[BlueIdaho]

17. Don't get me started... nm.

[Patiod]

24. But McLaughlin said the MSM were "in the tank" for Obama!

I'm so confused

(actually, I agree that they really want a tighter race, to keep us glued to our teevees)

[FloridaGrl]

6. The proof is happening right before us

-look at the early voting statistics. I don't even care about polling anymore, I can see that the country is energized and eager for a new direction. I totally agree that we have to get those who haven't voted already out to vote.

[Vektor]

9. Yep,

The early voters have us off to a great start...we just need to keep encouraging everyone else to get out there and be heard.

:hi:

[iceman66]

7. The scenario outlined in the article is entirely plausible.

I'm not saying it's the most likely scenario, but it could happen.

At the moment, I think we are in a much better position than the other side, but having been burned twice before, I have a hard time being more than cautiously optimistic.

[Vektor]

10. I think the scenario in its entirely is not plausible.

That's just waaaay too speculative. Could it happen to some degree, with some people? Sure, but it won't happen in every state.

I too have a hard time being more than cautiously optimistic. That's the exact term I used in a prior post.

I fear election fraud more than I do the entire country turning on Obama at once and actually voting for McCain. That's why I cannot stress diligence and GOTV efforts enough.

Any "gains" McCain makes between now and Nov 4th will be ill-begotten ones due to e-voting, not the people rising up, en masse, to suddenly embrace his unique form of idiocy.

Only by theft will they "win."

[iceman66]

12. Election fraud, if successful,

would result in a scenario much as described in the article - McCain would achieve the narrowest of victories, and it would be explained away as all of the variables simply swinging his way.

I don't think Obama would lose a fair election, I'm just not sure we're going to get one!

[Vektor]

16. None of us are sure...

But man, we will try like hell to make it NOT close enough to steal.

Also, someone posted earlier today that they had written to the Obama campaign about their fears regarding e-voting and fraud, and they got back a very encouraging and detailed letter letting the author know that the campaign was well aware of the issues, and they were all over it.

The Obama campaign even acknowledged "knowing what had happened in past elections" and said "not this time."

[progressivemom]

11. The media is trying to make it look like it will be close....

because ratings > truthful reporting. It's not close, but we need to keep working until the very end just the same.

[Vektor]

18. Very true, plus the media LOVES a close race.

More people tuning in to watch the drama unfold. If it's TOO obvious who's winning, nobody bothers paying attention to the news.

[FVZA_Colonel]

13. I think he's doing a bit better then 1-3 (maybe not much) in those states,

and that doesn't take into account Ohio, where he is starting to establish a lead. McCain simply can't win all the states he needs to, given the time and resources he has.

[Vektor]

21. Right - was actually giving a conservative estimate...

Of his lead in all those swing states - since I didn't want to swing too far on the pendulum to being TOO generous.

All that said, he has a healthy lead in most of the swing states, and an excellent chance to hang on to most of them.

[progressiveforever]

14. That is great! Good writing and reasoning, Vektor!!

:-)

[Vektor]

28. Thanks!

Some of it was pure logic, some of it was a hunch, but all in all, I think the Alter article was just way too out in left field, and I had to counter it with SOMETHING.

:-)

[PCIntern]

15. I agree with you 100%...

I work in Philly and I have NEVER seen anything like this.

[scarletwoman]

19. I've got another reason not to freak out over this article:

Jonathon Alter is an egoistic asshole attention whore. He's just trying to generate some buzz to puff up his sense of self-importance.

sw

[Vektor]

23. Ah yes - there IS that!

:-)

"egoistic asshole attention whore" :rofl:

[gratefultobelib]

20. Thank you so much! We are just programmed to worry, you know!

[Vektor]

25. Worrying is good, to an extent...

Keeps us on our toes and working hard. ;-)

[nolabels]

22. It's better that people think it's possible that McCain could win........

the people who own M$M are only shooting themselves in the foot by saying it's all still in play.


Nothing like the smell of fresh landslide :woohoo:

[Hippo_Tron]

26. Alter's scenario is HIGHLY improbable because the trends don't show it

What Alter is suggesting is that Obama's voters are fickle enough to change their minds a day or two before the election and that's just highly improbable barring an October surprise of extreme magnitude. They may be fickle enough to change their minds two weeks before the election but the polls over the past week have been trending for Obama, not for McCain. So if we see serious movement in McCain's direction in the last week, yes he could win. But in order for that to happen, McCain would have to somehow turn things around and I don't see how they do that, especially given that Obama has purchased that 30 minutes of TV time.

[Vektor]

27. Obama would have to scream "KILL WHITEY!" and eat a kitten in church while McCain...

was simultaneously pulling a newborn baby and her 89 year old grandmother from a burning building in order for public opinion to sway THAT much.

[Withywindle]

29. Thank you thank you thank you.

From what I see around me, my observations jibe with yours, very much.

What I see is that Obama's supporters are fired up, hopeful, passionate, energetic, motivated. Even those of us who, being Democrats, are kind of like a pet that's been abused might act in a new home - wanting so very much to be able to trust and love, but maybe not quite there yet. Been kicked too many times before. But Obama is reassuring us, because he's just that good.

McCain's supporters...not so much. Very few of the ones I've met even seem to like him. They're not happy. I think they're FAR more likely to be the ones who manage to talk themselves into blowing it off if the weather is sucky.

[Vektor]

30. They definitely are not happy.

It seems that if one's natural inclination is to be pessimistic, negative, defensive, angry, and miserable, then their inclination is also to be a Republican.

The two go hand in hand.

[Withywindle]

31. That's why this election is getting so bone-ugly

That's why they're falling back on racism, xenophobia, etc. (Red-baiting? How retro!) The only energy they have is negative. Hate and fear are powerful motivators in the short term, and it's all they've got. They're beyond caring how destructive it is. They'd rather go out in a "blaze of glory" (ew ew ew ew) than accept a loss and learn to compromise.

Scares the hell out of me, but I hope they'll prove ineffectual in the end and just crawl back under their rocks.