Gallup - Interesting Article Today On Historical Election Upsets - McCain's Chances

[Median Democrat]

I know most of the attention is given to the gallup poll, but this article is perhaps more interesting, because it covers election upsets and close calls. Frankly, I think the Reagan example is closer to Obama, since Reagan was the unknown quantity being portrayed as extreme and won a debate with Carter. Likewise, Obama is being portrayed as extreme, and won all three debates leading up to the election.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111451/Late-Upsets-Rare-Happened.aspx

/snip

There have been only 2 instances in the past 14 elections, from 1952 to 2004, when the presidential candidate ahead in Gallup polling a week or so before the election did not win the national popular vote: in 2000 (George W. Bush) and 1980 (Jimmy Carter). And in only one of these, in 1980, did the candidate who was behind (Ronald Reagan) pull ahead in both the popular vote and the Electoral College and thus win the election.

/snip

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[Drunken Irishman]

1. Jesus, could you imagine DU in 1992 with Clinton only clinging to a 3 point lead?

PANIC!

Oh man, that'd be crazy.

"We're gonna lose! Clinton can't close the deal! What the hell is wrong with America?"

:D

[mohc]

5. You forgot

They're going to steal it!!!

[Stagecoach]

2. Something they don't report about 1980

Reagan and Carter had their one and only debate exactly one week before the election. And that's why things were able to shift in Reagan's favor.

[Drunken Irishman]

3. dupe

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Plus, look at the numbers.

Carter was barely at 45%. For an incumbent to be at 45% with a week left in the race is not a good sign. You want to be at 47-50 to have a real chance and as it proved, Carter slipped, Reagan rose and he lost in a landslide.