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Can someone please explain these Ras CO numbers?

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nyccitizen Donating Member (309 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-27-08 11:21 PM
Original message
Can someone please explain these Ras CO numbers?
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

Ras has Obama +4 in CO. But look at what is reported in the internals:

-Among those who have already voted, Obama leads 57 to 42.

-Among those who have yet to vote, McCain leads by 11.

For those numbers to reconcile, 75% of CO would have to had voted already for Obama to be up 4. Surely that cannot be correct.

Can someone explain these numbers to me?

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writes3000 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-27-08 11:27 PM
Response to Original message
1. It's not really clear without being able to see the crosstabs.
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RagAss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-27-08 11:28 PM
Response to Original message
2. More Cowbell.
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FLyellowdog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-27-08 11:34 PM
Response to Reply #2
4. Exactly my thinking.
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justiceischeap Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-27-08 11:31 PM
Response to Original message
3. Ras Prediction for CO
Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a 85.0 % chance of carrying Colorado on Election Day. At the time this poll was released, Colorado is rated “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.
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DaveinMD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-27-08 11:41 PM
Response to Original message
5. Colorado has vote by mail
so a very large portion of the voters may have already voted.
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VMA131Marine Donating Member (15 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Oct-27-08 11:46 PM
Response to Original message
6. By my calculation
For this set of numbers to be self consistent 53% of those polled should have voted
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