Obama Is Trading At 87.7 And McLame Is Trading At 12 At Intrade

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.intrade.com/

Hmmm , McLame is a 7-1 underdog... The Chiefs have a better chance of winning the SuperBowl...

[Awsi Dooger]

1. Lots of places have odds now

Believe it or not, the Intrade price on Obama is the lowest. Other fixed odds places make you give 1/10 or 1/15 or even higher on Obama.

Here's one link with various odds. They have fixed odds on the states, plus other stuff like margin of victory. I don't have an account with the joint that has McCain at 1/2 in Georgia. IMO, that's a bargain. I think my friend can get down on it there:

http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/usa/

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Would You Put Ten Or Fifteen Dollars To Win One On Obama?

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[Awsi Dooger]

3. I'm glad I don't have to ponder that

I played Obama in September, averaging even money.

Your question is interesting. If I were going to do it, I'd wait until the absolute last minute before the betting closed. When you are investing with that type of risk you need to make sure the variables are all but gone and the time lag is next to nothing, essentially quick interest. Even at that point, at 1/10 minimum odds I think I'd want at least a 5 point lead in the national average to feel safe. The higher the odds the more margin for error you need.

I've made that type of wager before, but not in the last few cycles. There used to be aggressive offshore books that put up too low fixed odds on lopsided political races in the late '90s and 2000.

In sports I've played extremely high money lines in the first round of the NCAA tournament, like 1/30 or higher. Caesar's Palace used to allow parlays so I'd play 5 or 6 together and invest several thousand, to win maybe $800. I was always first in line as soon as they stuck them up, because those money lines went straight up.

If you want a short answer, yes I would do it, but only on election eve with a big lead. There is a proper price for everything and at that point Obama would be greater than 1/10 likelihood. Some gamblers have set rules ("never do this, never do that") but the smartest sportsbook manager I worked for was incredibly astute. He said any price can be a bargain, depending on the circumstance.

The one time I got burned on a huge favorite was Roy Jones being disqualified after hitting Montel Griffin while he was kneeling. Gad, that one still stings. I gave something like 1/6 and I think I lost about $4800. I'd bet Roy his whole career so I wasn't ticked at him but it was so shocking the way it unfolded. I still have that ticket somewhere...:(

[Awsi Dooger]

4. Now that I think about it

There are many states with similar 1/10 or 1/15 odds in which I'm certain of the outcome, equal or more than Obama winning nationally, but I haven't invested. So that probably indicates I don't look to make that type of wager.

Parlays would be awesome. That's what gamblers like to do in that situation, huge favorites, as I hinted at in the other response. If I could parlay Obama to win many different "safe" states and turn a bunch of 1/10s into a single 1/2, that would be a terrific investment. That is available in sports because they are unrelated outcomes. But that doesn't apply to politics so they don't allow it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Putting Up Five Thousand To Win Three Hundred Or So Bucks Doesn't Interest Me

But I would feel confident putting that bet on New York, California, Massachusetts, Illinois, Rhode Island, Hawaii, and some others...

[WeDidIt]

6. Yeah, now the proppers are doing individual states

They've flipped Indiana back to McCain.