About Palin 2012... from perhaps the most obsessed Palin Watcher

[Essene]

As some of you know, i've been keeping track of about every major thing about Sarah Palin, put together the big "http://palin-factsheet.blogspot.com/2008/10/sarah-palin-factsheet.html">Sarah Palin Factsheet" and generally obsess over every little drama regarding her. I truly think she's the closest thing we've seen to a fascist personality in american politics. She's a crazy theocrat who's slowly showing her true colors.

This woman... has no chance... of running as a major contender in 2012. Thank god.

1. She's a liability on the national stage.

She maxed out with a national approval rating of about 52% right after the GOP Convention. Within the first week, that dropped 10 points. It's continued to drop like a rock. She's barely got a 1/3rd of the nation who see her favorably.

She's also become symbolically connected to the darkest side of the Republican base: the total disregard for ethics & the law; the hate mongering; the nasty smears; the fascist, divisive anti-america nonsense; the militias; the culture war politics; the theocratic self-righteous religious right wing.

Politicians don't easily shake off such negative perceptions. She's a liability.


2. The GOP have stronger social conservatives with better political skills

Showed up in Philly wearing a NY Rangers jersey, then went to a Philly Flyers match. This is a woman who has insulted all big city folk as "un-american." She is hopelessly provincial, clueless and insensitive. While she's disturbingly charismatic, she's just out of her league at the national level.

Her record is one myth after another, and a true fiscal conservative will see that her record in Welfare Alaska is more befitting an ultra-leftist. She cannot compete with other Republicans after all of this.

The GOP have folks like Huckabee and Romney who are infinitely more credible than her... both being former Governors who actually accomplished stuff. She cannot go toe-to-toe with these guys or with folks like Jindal.


3. She has multiple scandals brewing in Alaska and has pissed off the local GOP there

Trooper-gate is just scratching the surface. She stabbed a very popular Mohegan guy in the back, but then stepped on GOP toes. That committee was a Republican committee she initially said she'd cooperate with. Once she became the VP candidate, she started blowing them off. Lawyers from DC were flown in to mess with them. They basically tried to derail the investigation, refused to cooperate, called it politically biased, etc. These Republicans clearly did not appreciate it. The report to them indicated the depth of her insanity and her abuse of power. It also showed how her redneck husband was a dangerous, rogue force behind the scenes.

She rose to power by attacking the Alaska GOP (that made her) and calling them unethical. They want her head now.

In her 1.5 years as a governor who got elected on a platform of anti-corruption, she's already made a complete mockery of herself. With the Ted Stevens conviction looming large, her snide commentary about the corruption in the Republican Party up there is going to set her up for her own political death.

There are serious questions about how her house got built, which will drag her into the wake of the Ted Stevens conviction.

The story about her misusing the state police's emergency plane is not going to be forgotten.

Her use of public funds to support that pentecostal church and to travel to churches... wont go over well.

Using public funds for her children to travel around the nation with her... wont go over well.

Not even being concerned with paying taxes on the $17000 extra she got to work from home... wont go over well.

All the stuff about the tanning bed and her real history back in Wasilla is coming out... and wont go over well.


She will not be a viable 2012 contender

Her approval rate in alaska has already dropped 20 points. When she goes back to being "just governor" the folks back home will see her in a new light, having embarrassed herself and alaska. For the next year, she's going to be up to her eyeballs in negative news and investigations. The myth behind her will vanish. The "most popular governor" title will be gone. Her charms have been ridiculed.

EVEN IF she survives all of that... there's no way she'll be a viable contender in 2012... not against somebody like Romney who will have no trouble absolutely destroying her in the first debate. He's an evil man who will ENJOY it. Once folks no longer feel compelled to defend her fiscal record and to maintain the myth, it's over.

These are her 15 minutes of national fame.

Be happy... because if she had hidden in Alaska these years and came to the national stage with more experience, more sophisticated national policy skills, etc... she'd have been a very scary contender. Thankfully she's been exposed early.

[Wetzelbill]

1. In a GOP primary, when they don't have to suck up and fall in line

to defend their presidential ticket, her opponents will crush her. Her record is too awful not to rough up. Obama and Biden had the luxury of not having to rip her up too much, they focused on McCain, stood back and let her hang herself. But in a GOP primary, she's not second fiddle anymore and is open to direct attacks and does she ever have tons of material to work with.

[Essene]

2. exactly... and imagine huckabee allowing her to say all that stuff about "god's will"

alaska is the #1 pork-per-person state.

1/3rd of the jobs depend on federal money.

it's swimming in cash from corporate taxes on oil.

her entire record from mayor to governor has been about spending and taxing.

she's very much a "big government" type with a strong theocratic instinct. the stuff she's said about god's will would be SHREDDED by a guy like huckabee... who's a former pastor and very humble on church/state. this crazy lady has implied that her policies are god's will and that getting elected is also god's will.

imagine romney and huckabee allowing her to get away with that.

she's toast.

[Wetzelbill]

9. the corruption stuff is hurting her

Plus the little seemingly petty criticism, like about her makeup and her wardrobe. Nobody likes a hypocrite, especially a blatant one, and she's crusaded on being a reformer while engaging in abuse of power and living it up high on the hog with Republican donors money. That all adds up.

[K Gardner]

3. I agree with you on this, and thank you for your diligent Keeping Track. I know that

doing those "fact sheets" gets tiring. I did my own on Bush for a very long time after he stole office. When you get tempted to give up because its such a burden, and it is, remember the past eight years. We will need your Facts at some point, I'm certain of it. Because the American voter has sometimes a short term memory. Thank you !

[Essene]

6. credit belongs to ADN, blumenthal, talbot, etc

anchorage daily news has been extremely vigilant in telling the truth about her record.

all the journalists who investigated the real palin story deserve the credit. im just tracking it.

[K Gardner]

13. Well, that's the hard part tho: keeping the DATA all in one place :-)

[Essene]

15. yea...

ive been burning out on it, but you've made me want to make at least one final big update to it :)

[Window]

4. K/R.

:kick:

[WeDidIt]

5. I think she'll be the 2012 nominee

Teh nutbags are making it clear that she is their loyalty litmus test. They will purge the rational wing of their party and forever relegate tehmselves to obscurity.

[yardwork]

8. Then they'll be looking at a minority representing about 30% of the electorate.

I don't believe that ambitious Republicans like Romney will let that happen. They will eat Palin alive and serve her to the sharks.

[Essene]

11. She cannot beat folks like Huckabee and Romney for the lead of social conservatives

wont happen.

white evangelicals have moved center and are now more defensive of the separation of church and state.

she's completely out of touch on all of that stuff.

her flag waving, pro-america, god-wants-me-to-win nonsense just wont fly against other contenders.

[yardwork]

16. I agree. She's got nothing.

She will be a despised footnote.

[Wetzelbill]

12. She's too nutty

She horrifies the elite Republicans, people like David Brooks, for example.

The Republican Party freaked out when Huckabee won Iowa, they like to cultivate Christian extremists for electoral purposes, and have for decades, they never really felt the party would be consumed by them or one might actually get elected president. Huck scared them enough to where they fell in line behind McCain, because at least he doesn't believe the earth is a few thousand years old. Well, Huckabee is actually a pretty reasonable guy on lots of issues, he's a bit of a yokel to the elite GOP, but compared to Palin, he's alright. No way in hell would the majority party elites want Palin to have any real power. She's their religious Frankenstein coming back to destroy them.

[Essene]

14. her religious beliefs are way way way too extreme for mainstream evangelicals

it's fine for her to rally some support from the religious-right against a person like obama, when most of that base thinks he's a closet muslim.

she cannot pull it off against other republicans.

the witchcraft stuff? the complete violation of church/state separation. the comments about everything she does being god's will.

her comments about prophecy???

the fact that she spent 37 years in a church that speaks in tongues... AND THEN LIED about being non-denominational????

her fringe pentecostal church is way outside the mainstream evangelical base.

pentecostals represent the wackiest theology for most evangelicals. faith healing. holy possession. gnosticism. prophecy.

this is HERESY for many evangelicals.

[yardwork]

18. I don't have as much confidence as you in many of the fundies. They still love the chimp.

They're crazy. However, they represent a minority of the country, including a minority of Christians. W had the support of the old-time business Republicans and the neocons. Palin has neither.

[Essene]

24. She wont be able to compete against other religious-right contenders

It's not about "confidence" in how many fundies there are or whether they are crazy.

It's that they will have better options. Huckabee is a former-paster and a very humble former governor. He's genuinely funny, charismatic and able to talk faith without talking theocracy. Fundies in america DO NOT LIKE PENTECOSTALS. She's been granted leniency on all of that stuff because she was running only against Obama.

Fundies wont support her when they have other viable options.

She cannot... will not... be viable against other social conservatives on the national stage.

Research on white evangelicals has clearly shown a move towards the middle since 2006 and a growing trend of support for the separation of church and state. She's from a fringe church that's HERETICAL by most fundie standands. She's way out line and just cannot compete.

[Wetzelbill]

21. And she said that whacked out stuff about humans and dinosaurs

That she saw a human footprint inside a dinosaur one. Oh wow, I didn't even know what to think about that.

She'd be a disaster. Imagine her giving full on interviews like Huck, Romney, McCain, etc etc did in the Republican primaries this year. She's had to be kept hidden as much as possible and the few times she ventured out she practically sunk McCain. Let on her own to do interviews for her own campaign, hahahaha. Good luck with that one. She'd be under full assault from the media and her opponents, she's actually gotten a largely free ride this time around, at least considering all the material that could be used against her.

[Essene]

25. her pentecostal stuff is heresy to most evangelicals... and way out on the fringe

She just cannot compete on a national stage against somebody like Huckabee or Romney.

[calmblueocean]

26. Huckabee really isn't reasonable on the issues. I still like him, but he's not.

Huck has a terrible policy agenda. FairTax (would destroy the economy), Human Life Amendment (would make even seeking an abortion a federal crime by making all fertilized eggs, blastocysts, zygotes, embryos, etc. into "persons" under the Constitution), absurd border policy (rounding up millions of illegal immigrants to deport) and so on.

Still, he can be an extraordinarily compelling speaker. He often speaks in a language that decent Christians know well, and the Republican party has forgotten -- the language of caring for the poor. That's what makes some of us here a little more sympathetic to him than, say, Palin.

[Essene]

28. I'm not pro-Huckabee... im just saying Palin cannot compete with him

And i think you got some of his policies wrong, but it doesnt really matter.

I'm just saying that in a field of many contenders, she just cannot compete seriously.

[calmblueocean]

35. Huckapalin

Heh, I know you're not a Huck supporter. But I didn't get any of Huck's policies wrong. For what it's worth:

Huckabee on the FairTax: http://www.motherjones.com/news/update/2007/12/huckabee-fair-tax-fallacies.html

Huckabee on the Human Life Amendment: http://www.denverpost.com/ci_8360651?source=rss

"Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee on Monday endorsed a proposed Colorado Human Life Amendment that would define personhood as a fertilized egg. The former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister also supports a human-life amendment to the U.S. Constitution. "

Huckabee on deporting all immigrants who don't leave after his 120 day notice: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/08/us/politics/08campaign.html

"in detailing his plan for stepped-up enforcement, he said immigrants who failed to register within 120 days and then leave the country would be deported and barred from re-entry for 10 years."

I don't disagree at all with your analysis that McCain won basically because the elite Republicans had a Huckabee freakout, and that Palin will likely suffer the same fate as Huck in 2012. (My money's on Bobby Jindal.) I just disagreed with the idea that Huck is a "pretty reasonable guy on lots of issues" and "alright" compared to Palin. Policywise, he's as extreme as they come.

[Essene]

42. interesting...

i didnt remember him taking "federal policy" positions on some of that stuff in the primary. He worked hard to convey a more moderate approach on issues of religion.

He seems to be reacting to Romney's hard-right shift.

[Essene]

10. These same people are trying to hang Palin. Their interest is in minimizing fragmentation

sorry, but this is all cynical political maneuvering.

THERE IS NOT A SINGLE DAMN PERSON AT THE WHITE HOUSE WHO TRULY IS DEFENDING HER. :)

They are attacking Brooks, Gergen, Noonan, Parker, Buckley... for questioning social conservatism, not for questioning Palin.

The RNC wants scape goats and to minimize the fragmentation of the party. It is in their interest to make both of them appear out of synch with the party. Mccain gets painted as having betrayed principles. Palin gets painted as being a rogue who caused the most negative aspects of the campaign. Mccain gets blamed her her. She goes back to die in Alaska. He is marginalized. The RNC starts the new year having hung both of them.

The GOP/conservative diehards will continue to circle the wagons and try to attack the mutinous moderates.

It's a poor decision, because this approach is what got them in this mess. The mutiny is much deeper than that... and the desperate attempts to maintain a "base" driven by social conservatives is itself the litmus test.

[yardwork]

22. Here's the Republicans biggest problem - they stirred up the religious fanatics.

They can't put the genie back in the bottle. Three decades of nurturing this insane "base" of religious fundamentalist fanatics, and encouraging them to home school their offspring, and providing them with fake colleges and law schools that are nothing but diploma mills for religious extremists - have created an entire class of people who are appallingly ignorant of the reality of the world, and actually believe all the insane religious extremist rhetoric.

What are the Republicans going to do with the monster they have created? It's a millstone around the party's neck.

[Essene]

27. Here's how i see that...

The religious fanatics are actually being fairly disinterested this year compared to 1996, 2000 and 2004.

In 1994, the republicans basically dropped the Reagan-era "conservative coalition" that brought in moderate democrats.

They replaced that approach with a new identity, a new "revolution" and coalition that was very much based in the Culture Wars. They assaulted the media. They assaulted the universities. They assaulted mainstream culture. They assaulted secular society. They crafted this fairly new idea of "liberal" as the enemy... and framed it in warfare terms, as if real america was under siege and its survival was at stake.

That stuff got them a majority in Congress... and was very much driven by intellectual arguments which could leave room for some debate among the old school Buckley-style conservatives. Goldwater types and the Religious Right could come together in a new Republican Identity... one driven by social conservatism.

They planted the seeds of their downfall, by effectively disowning the center and marginalizing fiscal conservatives (and classical liberalism). The new identity of the GOP implicitly rejected the notion of a "purple america" and headed down a path that inevitably would lead to the fascist claims about some areas and people being anti-american.

Bush was a confusing moment. The Party didnt care about the contradictions because all that mattered was gaining power. The Party had become solidified around social conservative agendas and leadership. Putting the tiny group of neocons aside, the Party had learned to basically rally the wagons no matter what... to put party loyalty above principle.

They were unable to adapt in 2006, when the religious-right started to lose credibility and its focus.

The Party ended up with Mccain of all people... the polar opposite of their collective identity, simply because Romney and Huckabee split the wider social conservative vote. They forced Mccain to play all sides while mostly pandering to the social conservatives. They again put party first and engaged in the most disgraceful campaign imaginable merely to maintain power.

America has rejected their revolution, their coalition and it's pure thirst for power...

The 1994 coalition and revolution is over. The very identities of "conservative" and "republican" are open to debate as we've seen the base completely fragment. Social conservatives have lost considerable credibility with Palin and the pathetic campaign ploys... the anti-american stuff, the fear mongering, the muslim lies, etc.

The economic meltdown has been the final straw for the sincere fiscal conservatives and has highlighted how out of touch and petty the Party has become.

The social conservatives will regroup... and the moderates will do the same. It will be interesting to watch.

[yardwork]

34. You're making a lot of good points....but somehow Palin ended up on the ticket.

I hope that Palin was an anomaly - a fast one pulled by the religious right on a demented old man who wasn't paying attention. But it worries me that they managed it.

[Essene]

41. She wasnt fully vetted because she wasnt a top tier contender

They pulled her out of a hat out of sheer desperation and because Mccain apparently was so keen on 1) having a maverick story and 2) having lieberman.

He obviously resisted Romney, and the group of pro-Palin advocates just won the day.

[yardwork]

52. But if such a bizarre thing happened once at the top of the ticket it could happen again.

What I'm trying to say is that the Republican Party is seriously out of control. It's veered into insane behavior, but even so, approximately half the country seems to be willing to put on the blinders and go along with it.

It's very frightening when one of only two parties controlling the country that spends more on its military than the rest of the world combined is out of control. We're in Dr. Strangelove territory.

So, yes, I agree with you that no reasonable person would think that Sarah Palin could survive in politics. Yet, here she is.

[Virginia Dare]

51. Then we will be looking at a very strong third party candidate..

it will split the repub party in two, I actually wouldn't mind seeing that happen.

[yardwork]

7. Palin is scum. A lying, stupid, hateful psychopath.

If she were a Bush, I'd worry that she will end up as president. She's not much different from the chimp.

Because she's a woman from nowhere with no significant connections, she will be dropped by the Republicans as soon as the smoke clears after the election (unless they steal it).

I use your Sarah Palin fact sheet often. Thank you for doing this service.

[TheZug]

20. That's why she's so dangerous:

She has no qualms about cultivating the support of other psychopaths. These poor people could be manipulated and whipped into a frenzy during an Obama presidency if the economy takes a long time to recover. Someone with no scruples could take advantage of this.

I do think there are cooler heads in the Republican party, much as I don't like them. But I also think it's possible Palin could outwit them all and build an army of brownshirts.

This woman is EXTREMELY dangerous, and we should not let up on her for one second. And if the Republicans don't want their party to give birth to something far more horrible than anything we've seen to this point, they will nip this movement in the bud quickly as well.

[Essene]

29. if it's not her... it will be somebody else

Let me put it in darker terms.

Scared, alienated, angry whites from Palin's "pro-america" areas... are responsible for most terrorism over the last 30 years in america.

This has been around for 30 years. It will increasingly become a major problem in the 21st century as America simply cannot maintain it's influence, power and living standards forever. These people feel under siege and don't really understand the world too well. It's perfectly understandable how a small fringe will grow in this reality. They are scared of the future.

Palin's rhetoric became neofascist at times this election.

We all know about the nativist streak in parts of this country. We know how powerful patriotism and fear mongering can be when God loving politicians stir up anger at declared enemies. When a politician is implying that rural white bible thumping america is "real america" and everybody else is anti-american... pro-terrorist... dangerous... you're really looking at the roots of FASCISM.

I'm somebody who mocked the hyperbole in using that term against Bush/Cheney... but it really does apply to Palin's politics.

She's going to fade away, i believe, but this underlying problem will not.

I expect to see Romney tapping into the same emotions, but just not with the fascist rhetoric.

[Clio the Leo]

17. Thank you, I need constant reassurance. NT

[Essene]

31. me too lol

:toast:

[Matariki]

19. I agree. She has delusions of grandeur, but I predict we won't hear much about Palin after November

Except I think she'll have some continuing legal trouble in Alaska before she fades into obscurity.

[calmblueocean]

23. I'll be kind of bummed if she isn't the 2012 nominee. She's just what we need to finish them off.

She's a know-nothing hick with bad instincts. If she runs against Obama, she'll fire up so many racists and violent looney-toon Republicans that she'll scorch their party into the dirt. New candidates will refuse to run as Republicans because they won't want to be associated with the Party. They'll run as independents and Libertarians. And the Republican party will be no more.

[tosh]

30. K&R. Thank you, Essene. I appreciate the depth of your knowledge

on the inner workings and dynamics of the repug party.

You confirm what have been my gut feelings on Palin's future.

[JNelson6563]

32. Not to mention

These more qualified and skillful politicians mentioned in the OP are PISSED about being passed over for this whack-job. If/when they get a chance to go after her (i.e. a primary in 2012) they will be very vicious.

Here's hopin' it happens! :toast:

Julie

[Essene]

43. Very good point.

A lot of contenders and their supporters were insulted by this.

They wont let it go.

[nichomachus]

33. Two words

Dick Nixon

Nixon rose from the ashes not once but twice.

[amborin]

36. her 15 mins of national fame are soon up, she'll NEVER be seen again on the nat'l stage

she's a radical, extremist, whacko, evil, cunning but moronic, shallow, dangerous narcissist, whose minutes in the spotlight are ending

[yorkie]

37. maybe even more scandals will come out

I can only hope. It probably won't be before election day, but I am sure they are lurking.
There may be some info about her family and cover-ups, the Alaska Independence Party, and who paid for her plastic surgery and was part of it paid for by the State of Alaska, unknowingly-that cost a pretty penny, trust me. Seems like the GOP has done a good job stopping info from getting to us, but hopefully in a few days they won't have much power.
And Alaskans have really started to turn on her-they just did not know her well before. I gather the oil company money all Alaskans get paid every year has accounted for her popularity, but that money may be decreased since it depends on the price of oil.
Mudflats is a very good blog out of Alaska-I just discovered it a few days ago.

[Essene]

44. im 100% sure her affair will be proven and she'll have more scandals

I admit it... i absolutely believe the National Enquirer about that affair story. lol

[mrsadm]

38. I love the picture in your Fact sheet

of her sitting on a dead bear.

Where is the source of the 20 point drop in her approval rate in Alaska?

[Essene]

40. 82% dropped to 68% by end of september... latest figures are a guess

That poll was from late sept., before a lot more nasty stuff came out and the trooper-gate stuff. I'm cautiously saying she lost another 6% and would bet it will be a LOT more when the next poll is done.

just google "sarah palin 82% 68% approval"

[themaguffin]

39. She won't be viable, but it's good for us anytime she is out there

[blue_onyx]

45. I do think she's considered viable to a small number of people

But she won't survive a primary. I think Romney will be the 2012 nominee, with maybe Huckabee giving him a fairly good fight. Palin is a Fred Thompson type candidate. A candidate that sounds good and gets a lot of hype until you actually examine the person closer.

[Essene]

47. i agree. she might even try to run if she survives alaska for 2 years

[redqueen]

46. I don't care... I want to see her debate other repubs.

That will be hilarious.

[Essene]

49. i assume she'll have a GOP challenger for governor

[redqueen]

53. Hardly the same visibility...

and hardly the same caliber of challenger.

[FatDave]

48. She's intensely popular to one (insane) faction of republicans.

But they are too small to ever carry a primary, let alone a general election.

[Myrina]

50. ... which is why she'll get her own talk-show on Faux

:puke: and be the 'media darling'/journalist she went to college (sic) to be ....