After reviewing the polls from the closing weeks of 2004, why did we think Kerry was going to win?

[scheming daemons]

He was uniformly behind in almost all of them, including the state polls in swing states.


I think many of us, myself included, thought the undecideds would break overwhelmingly for Kerry - but they didn't (Osama's tape had something to do with that, I believe).


In any case.... RealClearPolitics poll summaries from that time show Bush ahead from 3 to 5 points in the final week. And he won by 2.4.


Therefore... I'm feeling pretty good about the 5 to 8 point lead that Obama has right now. Even the polls on the "low" side still have Obama winning.


It's weird how revisionist history kicks in and everyone, DUers and Freepers alike, has a "memory" of Kerry leading in the polls going into the election.....when the fact of the matter is, he was behind - by just about the amount he ended up losing by.

[HeraldSquare212]

1. I thought it was the exit polls that had everyone convinced. For some time on Election Day

all eyes were on Boston.

[scheming daemons]

5. Exit polls during the day only show those that voted early.... most working people vote when they

get home from work.

This is why NO exit polls should be released until polls close.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Well that's a different matter.

And it in retrospect, we shouldn't have been all that excited for those exit polls, since most were leaked with hours to go until the first polls closed. And most of the important states were so close, that at any moment a shift of voters -- workers getting off at five -- could have flipped it. That is exactly what happened.

[sandnsea]

24. Yes, that's true

I think Virginia and North Carolina had exit polls for Kerry. If that were true, then it was a given for the rest of the swing states. But...

[azmouse]

2. I think it was disbelief that America would want Boosh back for 4 more years.

It was a giant :wtf: moment.

[Uzybone]

19. Exactly

I couldn't believe 50% of our citizens would actually put Bush back in office.

[FLyellowdog]

23. That's what I thought at the time. Boy, was I wrong!

:spank:

[ncteechur]

76. We completely underestimated the stupidity of half the nation.

"...can't get fooled again." GWB

[Drunken Irishman]

3. We did what McCain supporters did.

Went through a shit load of polls and picked the most favorable as proof Kerry was going to win. Since the race was tighter, a few (not many) had Kerry up, though only by the smallest of margins.

It was false hope.

Myself? I didn't think Kerry would win. I thought it was too close to call, but I just didn't feel comfortable believing he could carry Ohio or Florida, which he was banking on.

[gatorboy]

4. I think it was a case of the DU hoping a majority would come to their senses eventually.

But I'm not near as worried this election, as far as the polls go.

[TheDonkey]

7. yes, Kerry was slightly behind in thefinal week. A lot of us had HOPE

that sheeple would wake up but the Osama tape and election fraud ended that dream.

[jobycom]

8. Wanted to.

Gave us all a reason to run around screaming "They stole it again!!" rather than "Damned fucking idiots."

Also, there was the usual looser's chorus of "The polls are all wrong! It's a conspiracy, man!" because we here are all better gauges of the mood of America than some silly pollster.

[Mojorabbit]

68. There were

plenty of shenanigans going on in Ohio. I am still not entirely sure he did not win.

[Downtown Hound]

9. It was widely believed that the undecideds would put Kerry

over the top. In an election where there is a sitting president, 85% of the undecided vote historically goes to the challenger.

[slampoet]

10. Here we go with everybody going over the 40 implausible things you need to believe ......

to think the election wasn't stolen.

[scheming daemons]

11. No... the point is to show how much of a better position Obama is in this time

He's 10 points better nationally than Kerry was at this time

[ieoeja]

14. Belief in polls is implausible? n/t

[slampoet]

34. But breaking towards incumbents is.

[ieoeja]

53. Go to any open discussion page.

Search for "undecided". 99% of the time the next word is "but" followed by a long string of rightwing talking points.

RWers love to pretend they are undecided because they believe that gives them more legitimacy in the eyes of the truly undecided voter. And they have been using this technique for a dozen or so years now.

So expect undecideds to break heavily for McCain this year for that simple reason. A lot of them are simply faking it right now.

[slampoet]

55. Nice idea but election data for the last 60 years doesn't back you up. ESP. during fair to bad econ

[ieoeja]

61. Ignore pre-Limbaugh era. This is something that Limbaugh introduced to the rank-and-filers. n/t

[GOTV]

70. There's a Salon article that backs your idea

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/10/27/undecideds/

[gypsylud]

12. Thanks for posting this

I wasnt online back in 04, and didn't have cable. I couldn't remember what the polls said back then. This makes me feel better. For some reason I thought he (Kerry) was ahead in Ohio. But it just may be wishful thinking imprinted upon my long term merory.

[uponit7771]

16. +1, I thought Kerry was up too. I think now there's more publication of poll averages

[alcibiades_mystery]

13. We didn't

(or at least I didn't).

[ieoeja]

20. The second he pulled out of Missouri (or was it Arkansas?) I figured it was lost.

The second McCain pulled out of Michigan, I figured this election was won.

[Drunken Irishman]

58. It was Missouri and I had a similar thought.

It happened early, too, like in September of 2004.

That was a very bad sign, since Missouri is an important swing state.

[smoochpooch]

15. We believed the "cell phone only" voters would give Kerry the win along with

young voter turnout to rival the early '70s. Oops.

[uponit7771]

18. I remember this, cell phone voters weren't polls and that's why a lot of people thought Kerry would

...get the undecideds

[sandnsea]

17. We thought we'd squeak OH & FL

The rest of the so-called swing states were comfortably Kerry, the polls were trending Kerry, until the tape.

[uponit7771]

22. We did, Kerry lost Ohio by 86k votes but for SOME reason 50% more blacks in Ohio voted for

...Bush in 04 than they did nationally (national avg. = 89% in Ohio it was 86%)

I don't believe that for a second, Blackwell had a LOT to do with Ohio.

[sandnsea]

29. As it relates to the OP's question

regarding polls and what people thought - on election day, before the exit polls, we thought we'd squeak Ohio and Florida. Why we didn't is another story entirely.

[InvisibleTouch]

21. I did think he had a good chance of winning...

...but wasn't convinced of it. I felt more scared than good going into election day. This time around I feel more good than scared. I'm not under any delusion that something might not still go wrong, but everything feels so much smoother this time around, like the energy and momentum are flowing well.

[Schema Thing]

25. It's that goddamn hope, I tell ya. It'll be the end of us all!

[mrcheerful]

26. Republicon trickery also played into it by republicon voters claiming to vote Kerry

then add in the Blackwell and Diebold teams and poof there went Kerry's win. Remember also in states like michigan in minority districts and democratic districts voting booths and ballets were lower then they should have been which meant folks stood for hours to vote.

[uponit7771]

31. The most 'trickery' happened in Ohio, 04 was stolen no doublt

[SweetieD]

27. I thought the election was in the bag for Kerry. Now when I look back at it, I don't know how I ever

thought that.

[LibraLiz1973]

46. me too. I think I thought it mostly because Bush was so terrible

it seemed INCONCEIVABLE that people would vote for him again.

Election Day exit polling had me believing Kerry had it- until about 8:15 that night.
I was the first (in my circle of friends) to see it wasn't going well.
By 11 that night I was in disbelief and mind numbingly depressed.
I turned everything off in the hopes that when morning came, something else would have occurred
that would make it a win.

[Liberal_in_LA]

28. We had hope, we were delusional, we clung to a few polls that showed a tie,

[pnwmom]

30. Because undecideds typically break against the incumbent. n/t

[Jennicut]

32. Think about this, we had some hope about Kerry but McLame is even further behind then Kerry was

So he really needs to make up some ground. Kerry made many states close, including Iowa and maybe it was stolen in Ohio. The point is, McLame has to make up a lot more gorund then Kerry did on election night. I don't see how he does it. All battlegound states AND PA? I think CO and VA will go for Obama. He is on the ropes and it may not be "close enough to steal".

[Alter Ego]

33. I didn't have the confidence in Kerry that I do in Obama.

[featherman]

35. Here's a link to RCP's pre-election '04 map and swing state poll averages

This is the way it turned out except that Kerry won Wisconsin. I think our theory at the time was that undecideds would break for the challenger and that Kerry would win Ohio were one or two polls were moving his way.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Final.html

[scheming daemons]

37. Wow.. RCP got 49 out of 50 states correct? That makes me feel AWESOME for this year...

[gypsylud]

45. this makes me feel even better but

I still don't trust the American People. I don't trust people who voted for Bush. Twice. I don't trust the Republicans to hold a fair election. All it takes is a few crooked election judges in some back country counties in VA or OH, and we're done.

I hope they prove me wrong come election day. I hope I can believe that our democracy works.

[shraby]

36. Kerry was projected to win it..even Bush

was told by Karen Hughes in the evening that he was losing...until Rove got on the phone..there are photos of him in the white house working the phones. No one can ever convince me that Bush won 2004 any more than they can convince me he won 2000.
What I'm looking at in this thread is called revisionist history.

[scheming daemons]

38. See the link above showing the final poll averages.....

[4_Legs_Good]

39. I think things were close and slightly trending our way

and there were tons of states that looked really close. Up until the actual numbers started flowing in, I thought we had won it.

I was on electoral-vote.com every day, calculating how we could/would win it. I thought we really had a shot.

This time, I'm more calculating how we can lose it, and, while I'm still nervous as hell, it's actually going to be pretty hard to lose, unless they pull something out of their asses.

David

[Smuckies]

40. Excellent question. We were suppose to win Ohio.

[WeDidIt]

41. We deluded ourselves.

Seriously, we deluded ourselves. IT was, however, close enough for Kerry to come from behind and win, though the Osama tape sunk that idea.

this year, the Freepers are far more deluded than we were, though.

[LibraLiz1973]

43. Fix that for typo

You said Obama tape, not Osama.

But in any event, I agree with you 100%

[WeDidIt]

49. D'oh! Thanks!

:blush:

[LibraLiz1973]

51. Ha ha, I did it last week and someone caught it.... but too late for me to fix.

:blush:

[progressivebydesign]

42. I've been thinking about that lately.. As I compare it to where we are now.

I think many of us were worried, but we also felt that Ohio was going to push it over the edge for us. And we all know how THAT worked out!

That's why many of us are very supersticious or cautious about those champagne threads.. cuz it was just a horrid scene here when the exit polls hit Mr. Blackwell's machinations.

[karynnj]

44. There was hope that the polls were missing the young who had just cell phones

and there was a trend upward for Kerry in the early part of the last week. Kerry and Shrum have both said that that trend changed when the OBL tape came out. The hope was caused not just because a few polls had Kerry ahead in enough swing states, but because it was close enough that it could come down to turnout. Before the tape came out, the talk on cable was that it looked like Kerry might be pulling it off. (I remember Matthews and Fineman speaking - where they said this in near incredulous voices.) The issue getting most play was that Bush's people did not guard the known ammo bases - Kerry spoke of how that ammo was in the IEDs killing "our kids". This was effective as it made many accept that Kerry's criticisms were not political, but truth.

On election day, the excitement was due to the magnitude of the Kerry margins in early and mid - day voting. There was also the turnout numbers - the Kerry campaign exceeded all their targets in every state in terms of the number of votes. There were 8 million more than in 2000 - the problem was that the Bush team had a phenomenal turnout as well (which they didn't see.) Every poll includes a likely voter model - I would bet that as they saw the turnout, they had reason to think that the likely voter model underestimated the vote. I'm sure within the campaign, they were convinced they won because of both of these factors.

As it was it was an extremely narrow loss in Ohio - where the vote was suppressed. The loss was SO close that you can assign hundreds of things as potentially making the difference - and the OBL tape is one of them.

This year is incredibly different - this is a year where the liklihood of the Democrat winning has been far higher than the Republican since before our nominee was known. In December 2003, Bush beat generic Democrat by double digits. In Nov 2004, less than half the people said the country was going in the wrong direction - now it is nearly 80%.

[BootinUp]

47. People see so many polls and read things into them

until they can't remember what they read into them.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

48. yes

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[CANDO]

50. I keep checking back to the daily polls of '04 on electoral-vote.com

I think the cell phone only people were supposed to be way under polled and I know that's what was going on in my head. And also the undecideds usually going with the challenger. Hard to believe how gut wrenching it was watching it all taken away election night.

[lancer78]

52. Kerry was the anti-bush candidate

That is all that needs to be said. In 2004 I voted "against" Bush. In 2008 I voted "for" Obama. Big mental state difference there. John Kerry, being a decent man, just did not generate the enthusiasm that Barack Obama is. Check this link from 2004,

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct28.html

And now this one from 2008

http://electoral-vote.com/

In 2004, on this date Kerry only had 88 strong electoral votes. On the same date 4 years later Barack Obama has 260.

[Kaylee]

63. Wow...I'm feeling more optimistic already!

[karynnj]

75. i had more confidence in Kerry's ability to lead in 2004

than I did in Obama's - until Kerry made the case for him. I may be wrong but I think Kerry was the first to speak of Obama as a transformational President - and long before Kerry endorsed him - he spoke of the person who became President having the potential to be a President of FDR greatness.

Kerry's history and eloquence make him one of the best leaders we have in this party. You can be happy and enthusiastic with Obama - but you might want to consider he wouldn't be where he is had Kerry not given him the speech in 2004 --- and possibly had Kerry not given him the early endorsement and the excellent back up as a surrogate that he did.

[frogmarch]

54. I thought Kerry would win because

I thought the vast majority of Americans were fed up with bush, and also because Kerry was (and is) intelligent and articulate and had the better plan for America by far.

[DarienComp]

56. The Al Qaqaa story broke a week before the election.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Qaqaa

[Forkboy]

57. I love the guy, but I never once felt he was going to win.

[TheKentuckian]

59. I'd infinitely prefer our position now

than anytime since 96 and certainly McGollum is in worse shape than anyone since Mondale.

McGollum has to steal PA and win about every battleground state and Obama has paths to 270+ that don't require Ohio, Florida, and you can even work it without Pennsylvania.

[budkin]

60. I didn't care for Kerry all that much but I loathed Bush with a passion.

[wildflower]

62. Yard signs, newspaper endorsements, Zogby's polls, huge rally crowds,

cell phone users not being polled, and a lot of anecdotes of people who knew someone switching from Bush to Kerry or undecided to Kerry.

These are most of the reasons I recall, anyhow, being on DU, and I got caught up in it as well. Then there is the very real matter of election fraud and voter suppression.

Zogby's statement near the end that Kerry would win it had a big effect on me. I still remember it.

[wishlist]

64. Kerry was trending upward, seemed to be catching Bush until Bin Laden tape came out

Bush and Kerry's poll numbers were extremely close with Kerry having upward momentum until the terrorism scare was resurrected by the inflammatory Bin Laden tape on the Friday before election which stopped Kerry's momentum and gave the advantage to Bush.

[Blondiegrrl]

65. I didn't think he would win. I was hoping for a miracle, but based

on the polls I figured the Dems were screwed.

Forunately, the polls this time around look MUCH better.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

66. No.

There's really no comparison between this race and last.

[tritsofme]

67. DU became an echo chamber for the Kerry campaign.

All his missteps were ignored and dismissed.

If you even suggested that Kerry was not running a superb campaign or that toward the end it seemed likely he would lose, folks around here would be gunning for your head.

[Overseas]

69. We only won by three points in the end.

And then the intense peer pressure to concede ensued, pushing Kerry to concede before all the votes had even been counted. Then tortured discussions were broadcast about how the world renowned exit polling organization used to judge the fairness of elections in other countries could have been so wrong. The exit polling data agreed with vote totals 51 K / 48 B up until around 11 pm and then the vote count diverged SIX POINTS after that-- Bush up three and Kerry down three. That is statistically so improbable that it those were results from another country, we would have questioned the fairness of that election. But instead, the exit poll data was ADJUSTED TO MATCH the vote counts and then the torturous discussion of how we could blame polling companies ensued. (And there are some that are clearly partisan.)

Followed by preplanned broadcast media discussions of Guns God & Gays as the reasons Kerry "lost."

I am glad we've got much bigger leads in more states this time. And we've caught some of the voter suppression methods being used again.

And that far more people have actually read the evidence from various sources about methods the Republicans have used in recent elections to depress the Democratic vote count and are paying more attention this time.

Let's hope they are more open to looking at the evidence in this election, rather than being in such a hurry to shove those of us questioning the results aside with dismissive comments about conspiracy theories.

The footage of election night 2004 in "Stealing America: Vote by Vote" was chilling. I remember watching that wonderful 51 K to 48 B and being so happy. Then the torturous pretending began and was sustained through lots of moderate Democrats shushing up people who complained of voter suppression and the several different techniques being used. Each one was fairly modest-- a few hundred to a few thousand votes-- so it was "too small to change the outcome." And yet when they were added up later, those "little glitches" amounted to millions disenfranchised.

www.stealingamericathemovie.com

[votetastic]

71. As I remember it, it was the massive voter registration drive by the Dems

The theory was that these people were not being polled, and there was a much greater margin of newly registered Democrats.

[OnionPatch]

72. I was hoping for a good turnout.

I couldn't fathom that there could be so many Bush supporters, let alone *enthusiastic* Bush supporters. Plus, I do think Kerry probably should have won, what with all the voter suppression and machine shenanigans.

[Genevieve]

73. Because of the exit polls.

I remember seeing something very strange watching the election
results late that night
of Nov. 4, 2004 when suddenly - Judy Woodruff was like

"um, what
happened?"

and then the numbers flipped and Kerry was losing,
ad it was all quite surreal. .


'

[ProSense]

74. Because the polls are always accurate, and the MoE

explains vote suppression to the tune of 350,000 Ohioans and hundreds of thousands of Floridians?

They explain the machine errors and GOP fraud?

Why on earth would anyone think Kerry was going to win?

[Awsi Dooger]

77. It is bizarre to look back at it

Particularly when you remember DU on election eve. It was positively giddy around here. There was the occasional thread saying calm down, it's not over. That was long before the early exit polls.

There were two aspects to it:

1) We preferred to amend the polls, insisting their Party ID was too friendly to Republicans. We wanted the +3 or +4 Democratic from '96 and '00. Turned out the polls had it right and we were too optimistic

2) We hoped for a massive split of the undecideds to the challenger. TIA was touting 75% or higher. I cautioned many times that my research indicated it would be closer to 62 or 63%, best case scenario, in a high profile race close to 50/50 in the polling. Turned out even my 62 to 63% was too high.