Kerry Widens Lead in Battleground States

[troublemaker]

Kerry Widens Lead in Battleground States! Now that's a headline you're not likely to see in the mainstream media, consumed as they are with the storyline du jour about Bush's Big Mo' from the convention.

But that's what the internals of the latest Gallup poll tell us. Prior to the Republican convention, Kerry had a one point lead among RVs (47-46) in the battleground states. After the Republican convention, now that battleground voters have had a chance to take a closer look at what Bush and his party really stand for, Kerry leads by 5 in these same states (50-45)! Note that Kerry gained three points among battleground voters, while Bush actually got a negative one point bounce.

And wait--there's more! The Gallup poll's internals also show that Kerry continues to lead among independents (49-46) and that both parties' partisans are equally polarized for their respetive candidates (90-7). Note that these findings directly contradict the results of the recent Newsweek poll, which showed Bush doing much better among Republican partisans than Kerry was doing among Democratic partisans. Note also that, given the equal polarization of partisans and Kerry's lead among independents, the only possible reason Bush has any lead at all among Gallup's RVs must be because their sample has a GOP advantage on party ID (my guess is 5 points) that is inconsistent with almost all other polling data from this campaign season (see my recent post on the Newsweek poll for more discussion of this issue).

Indeed, if equal polarization of partisans continues and Kerry carried a 3 point lead on independents into the election, he'd win fairly easily, since the Democratic proportion of voters in presidential elections is always higher, not lower, than the Republican proportion. In 2000, after all, Bush carried independents by 3 points and received stronger support from his partisans than Gore did from his--but still lost the popular vote by half a point.

Posted today by Ruy Teixeira at DONKEY RISING
http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000642.php

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. KICK!

:kick:

[cheshire]

2. Thanks for the boost.

:bounce:

[DebJ]

3. and that doesn't include the 852 people we registered in the

past two months, 91% new voters, 87% democratic, 7% undecided....and
that's with just less than a dozen of us hitting the streets each weekend. This Sunday, we will be 80 strong! And all hidden from the polls. Almost all of these people have never voted in their life!

[DebJ]

4. oops sorry data is from york pa

[DaveSZ]

5. Don't get cocky though

Keep fighting for liberty, justice, due process...

[NWHarkness]

6. Ruy Teixeira

I love that guy!

[speedoo]

7. Actually, this is not too surprising.

The rethug convention was 100% intended to rally their base. Very little real appeal to moderates.

Assuming there are lots of moderates in battlegound states (basically, by definition) I see no reason that the rethugs should be in a better position now in the battlegound states.

[sangh0]

9. Bingo

Bush* is campaigning and advertising in a lot of rural areas. The boob* has to continue to shore up his base after 3.5 years squatting in the WH.

[troublemaker]

12. Unfortunately, that raises the spectre of an election day terror alert

to suppress turn-out and thereby render absentee ballots and hardcore supporters decisive. If that scenario develops the only hope would be that Bush's voters are the only people in the country who pay any attention to their terror warnings anymore. That would be delightfully ironic, but it wouldn't happen. Terror alerts terrorize people in cities, so the rural vote you mention would be decisive.

Sigh. It's appalling we even have to weigh such considerations, but here we are...

[Bleacher Creature]

8. I hope it's not misguided

but I really put a lot of stock in what Ruy Texeira has to say.

Anyone know anything about him???

[troublemaker]

16. Bio from Center for American Progress

Ruy Teixeira, Joint Fellow

Ruy Teixeira is a Joint Fellow at the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation. He is the author of five books, over a hundred articles, both scholarly and popular, and a weekly online column, Public Opinion Watch.

His latest book is The Emerging Democratic Majority, written with John Judis (Scribner, 2002). Probably the most widely-discussed political book of the year, The Emerging Democratic Majority generated praise across the political spectrum, from George Will on the right to E.J. Dionne on the left, and was selected as one of the best books of the year by The Economist magazine.

Teixeira holds a Ph.D. in Sociology from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He has been a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution where he wrote the book, The Disappearing American Voter, now a standard reference work on voter turnout. The book was published in 1992, after which he moved to the Progressive Policy Institute, the think tank of the Democratic Leadership Council, to start a political studies program for them. In 1994, he moved to another think tank, the Economic Policy Institute, to direct their Politics and Public Opinion Program and stayed there until 1999, when he moved to The Century Foundation. In 2000, he published America’s Forgotten Majority: Why the White Working Class Still Matters (Basic Books), a widely-cited and controversial work credited with being a strong influence on the Gore campaign and selected as one of the best books of the year by the Washington Post.

http://www.americanprogress.org/site/pp.asp?c=biJRJ8OVF&b=2501

[johnnyrocket]

10. You won't hear this on the corpocracy's mouthpieces

...CNNMSNBCFOX mind numbing video feeds.

I've been watching less and less of network/cable news, it's becoming MORE vapid, slanted, void of content, and SO pro Bush it's disgusting.

These news channels were ALL OVER the Bush 11 point lead, and for the first time I'd ever seen, started harping on the electoral map, and that Bush was winning at 302 EV. I was stunned.

[newyawker99]

21. Hi johnnyrocket!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[a new day]

11. Networks want a horse race

Elections are boring without lead changes. Pundits will make them up to be watched.

Stay calm.

[cthrumatrix]

13. they want an election that can be stolen

[Demoiselle]

19. Absolutely right, new day..

They love to build up and slap down. I'm willing to admit that at least some of their awful inability to do a proper journalistic job anymore is a bipartisan need for excitement/entertainment/ratings. (Doesn't make it alright, though.)
I love Groucho, by the way, and can and will sing ALL of Lydia the Tattooed Lady at the drop of a hat, to the distress of my friends and family. I am also very fond of Show Me a Rose.

[a new day]

22. la-la-laaaa, la-la-la

[michigandem2]

14. never take the media's "news" at face value...

suspect they are lying to you at all times...because they usually are...its sad but true...

[atre]

15. I find it hard to believe that less than 10% of Republicans oppose Bush

I know dozens who refuse to vote for him, and I call a red state home.

[Cha]

18. I find it incredible and considering the source

..it is!

[Cha]

17. And all this talk in the media of bush leading

is getting Democrats Fire Up and out on the campaign trail!

[K. F. Gibbons]

20. Lets call NewsWeek, SpewsWeek!

:think: