Zogby Poll Out Today - Kerry Leads - Is The Media Covering It?

[ruggerson]

Zogby Battleground Poll shows Kerry still leading in battleground states.

Where's the media on this poll?

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=860


<snip>

It’s almost as if there were no conventions at all. The latest numbers in the Zogby Interactive Presidential Battleground Poll shows the race almost exactly where it was in late July before the Democrats gathered in Boston.

But the dynamics are different, as President Bush continues a slow advance from lows earlier this year that included nagging problems: a nation facing serious trouble in Iraq and an economy making what critics called a “jobless recovery.’’ All the while, he took a pounding over issues foreign and domestic by 10 Democratic presidential candidates.

Now, eight of those ten Democrats have packed it in and headed for home, leaving the last two – John Kerry and John Edwards – to form the party’s presidential ticket.

The poll shows Mr. Bush establishing a strong lead in Ohio, where history indicates he absolutely must win to keep his job, and in Tennessee, a state where he led by large volumes in earlier polls but where he lost that advantage before regaining it this past week.

Mr. Kerry leads in states he needs to win to grab the top prize, but his leads are smaller than they had been in earlier polls. This latest collection of polls shows that Mr. Kerry would win the White House by a margin of 264 electoral votes, to 231 for Mr. Bush. The votes of three states – Florida, Missouri, and Nevada – are held out of the count because the candidates are within one percentage point of each other and so are too close to call. Even if Mr. Bush were to be awarded all three states, he still would lose narrowly to Mr. Kerry.

[iwantmycountryback]

1. The interactive polls are pretty unreliable

unfortunately. Though I don't doubt Shrub's lost any sliver of a bounce he got.

[ruggerson]

2. These are reliable polls

Go to his website. THese are the real deal, he updates them once every two weeks for the WSJ.

[Smarmie Doofus]

3. OK... I give up....

What IS an interactive poll? How does it differ from a "poll"?

Paul

[Eric J in MN]

5. An "interactive" poll is people who fill out an internet

questionaire instead of people who got a telephone call.

[prodigal_green]

7. self-selected participants.

although telephone polls are, to a certain degree, also self-selected as a fair number of those called do not participate.

[Teaser]

13. Zogby claims to have corrected for selection bias.

He's tested the format pretty thoroughly. I remember when it was being done and, in fact, some people here participated in the testing.

We'll find out if his correction factors work. If they do, a brave new world of polling will open up for us.

[speedoo]

4. Kerry is going for the jugular... Ohio.

"The poll shows Mr. Bush establishing a strong lead in Ohio, where history indicates he absolutely must win to keep his job..."

Kerry has been in Ohio an awful lot since the rethug convention ended. I am hoping Zogby's numbers don't yet reflect any impact.

But I like the fact that Kerry is fighting hard in Ohio. Gore's last mistake (of many) was giving it up in 2000.

[Child_Of_Isis]

6. I live in Ohio

and the buzz is... vote and get bush out of there. This is coming from my generation, my parents generation, and my teenagers generation. The criminals have lost the house.

[Ducks In A Row]

8. I wonder if this is because I sent the zogby poll to alot of friends...

who probably emailed friends. hadn't heard about it before, but hopefully it didn't miss anything up.


"While Mr. Kerry is doing well in several states like Oregon, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, the President has the real momentum here.”"

and we are all voting for Kerry

[TheFarseer]

9. I can't believe any poll like this is accurate

anything online is too easy to stuff the ballot box. OTOH - I don't think any polls are accurate. I think people are tampering with polls that should otherwise be fair in order to reflect what they want. Sometimes I think I should disregard all polls and go with my gut that tells me Kerry has to be way out in front.

[JohnnyCougar]

10. Zogby's polls have been proven reliable...

There is no way to stuff the ballot box when you control for party affiliation. Besides, people who are motivated to self-select themselves to do a survey are likely to be motivated to vote. People who are selected at random by a telephone poll are not necessarily going to the polls even if they say they are. Most telephone polls don't even have 25% response rates either.

Remember, the people who go to the polls are a self-selected group. They don't call people randomly and ask for their vote on election day. Just something to think about.

[TheFarseer]

15. oh, well

if they have a quota for party affiliation based on the party affiliation of the state they are surveying, then that makes more sense. I'll have to look into this.

[quaoar]

11. I can see how an interactive poll could be made valid

If you had a large enough pool of people who are participating that you could reject enough respondents until you got a demographically representative sample.

[DaveinMD]

12. as long as a poll is weighted properly

by party, gender, race, ethnicity, and income it should be accurate no matter how the data was collected.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

14. Wow what a surprise...

Bush and his whore media lied again? Why don't the cable news channels step aside to allow Fox to do it's job? They all try to emulate it, why don't they just let it monopolize?

Thank god for DU, a shining beacon of truth.