Obama: Rockin' the suburbs
Posted October 30, 2008 12:02 PM
The Swamp
By Jim Tankersley
Soccer moms and their husbands - the much-labeled, closely watched suburbanites who helped President Bush win re-election four years ago - are now serving up a national polling lead for Barack Obama in the days leading into the presidential election.
The new Hofstra National Suburban Poll, conducted for the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University in New York, shows a seismic suburban shift toward the Democratic nominee over the last month.
The poll, conducted Oct. 22 through 26, shows Obama leading Republican John McCain 47 percent to 39 percent among registered suburban voters. Among likely suburban voters, Obama leads 46 to 43, a statistical tie. In a similar Hofstra poll a month ago, McCain led 48 to 42 among registered suburbanites and 51 to 42 among likely voting suburbanites.
"The suburbs have long been thought of as a Republican bastion, in contrast to the Democratic strength in the nation's major cities," the polling report proclaims. "But the economic turmoil that has swept the nation has moved the suburbs out of the Republican column with only a week to go before the 2008 presidential election."
The report goes on to show that independent voters - those not affiliated with either party, and a crucial bloc in swing suburbs across the land - have moved from backing McCain by 8 points a month ago to backing Obama by 8 points now. Obama has also opened a 15-point lead among suburban voters who attended some college at least, a group McCain led by 6 points in September.
In the suburbs, Obama now leads among women, men and couples with children; he splits married couples evenly with McCain. Those are all key GOP targets. McCain leads among white suburbanites, but he's lost support among them: In September he was up 55 to 38 among suburban whites, with 7 percent undecided. Now he leads 47-38, with 15 percent undecided.
The polling report chalks that movement to the faltering economy: "In September, those with a positive view of their family finances supported McCain by a 55 to 37 percent margin, an 18-percentage-point advantage. But what a month of economic turmoil has done: now McCain's advantage among suburban voters with a positive view of their finances is only nine points: 49 percent to 38 percent.
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