Obama wins as many Dems as McCain wins Reps... And Obama wins 5% of Independents.
Ok, somebody please explain to me how those internals could possibly produce a three-point edge, even if we work with the bogus 2004 numbers.
The race has tightened in part because of changes in a couple of important swing voting groups. Independents back Obama by 5 percentage points today, down from a 9-point edge last week. Similarly, among white Catholics, Obama held an 11-point edge over McCain last week and today they split 46-46.
"Independent voters have long been regarded as one of the keys to this race and these results may foreshadow a tightening in the battleground states where independents carry disproportionate weight," says Ernie Paicopolos, a principal of Opinion Dynamics Corporation.
Another reason the numbers have tightened is that McCain has also improved his position among his party faithful, and the number of voters identifying themselves as Republicans has seen an up-tick as well. Fully 88 percent of Republicans back McCain, up from 83 percent last week. For Obama, 89 percent of Democrats support him, up slightly from 88 percent.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/30/fox-news-poll-obamas-edge-mccain-narrows/