Here is what David Brooks said on NPR ...

[TheCoxwain]

The best predictor, going by recent history, of margin of victory is the average of polls ONE WEEK before the election.

He cited Bush/Gore ( Polls were Tied)
Bush/Kerry ( Bush was up 2%)

So he thinks Obama will take this by 9% .... Election is pretty much over for John McCain.

I am not very fond of Brooks - But I think he hit the nail on its head on this one.

[Virginia Dare]

1. That sounds about right...

most of the reputable polls of "likely voters" are between 5-7%. I think there will be huge numbers of new voters and people who normally don't vote, but feel compelled to this time, and they will break for Obama, so give him another point or two for them. So 9% sounds about right.

[groovedaddy]

2. Yeah, he's said other stuff that indicates he see's what's coming.

Let's hope he's right!

[Essene]

3. im fond of brooks... and he was one of the first to call Mccain/Palin a disgrace, too

he's not a partisan windbag who just spews the talking points. he slams the neocons and the far-right.

he has his values. he has his principles. he sticks to them.

the biggest irony is that he's one of the most passionate advocates for this pastoral america where folks can often be more in touch with their community and all that jazz.

he was the one who early on... said Palin "represented a cancer in the republican party" because she was truly anti-intellectual.

[Essene]

5. here's the video where he said palin represents a "fatal cancer" for the GOP

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvxQwNqZSOQ

he was one of the early GOP'rs to break from the trainwreck and to plant his stake in a more moderate future.

[BluegrassDem]

9. He also was one of the first Republicans to criticize Trent Lott over that Strom Thurmond flap

He came out very strong against Trent Lott and said that old, southern Dixie race-baiting part of the Republican Party is a part he wants nothing do with. And that was right after it happened, not weeks later. So I give him props.

[DemFromMem]

4. Early voting will reduce any last minute drift as well

[NRaleighLiberal]

6. Brooks seems to have weaned himself off of the Kool Aid, at least temporarily.

My suspicion is that he is trying to sort out a way to retain some readers.

[Essene]

7. he's always been moderate

i know DU folks like to paint all republicans with the same brush... war mongering neocon theocratic fascists, etc.

but brooks is a mostly sensible moderate who doesnt spew the party talking points. that's why he's on PBS.

[baldguy]

8. Both Gore and Kerry got more votes.

The only reason Bush "won" was due to GOP shenanigans.