If Kerry gets 2/3 of the undecided, he's home free! The Incumbent Rule.

[TruthIsAll]

The Incumbent rule: challengers typically win a clear majority of undecided voters.

Kerry needs 67% for a 50.84% popular vote, 303EV and a 93.5% WIN probability. That assumes the current state poll numbers which are used as the basis for a Monte Carlo simulation in order to determine his average EV in 5000 election trials. He wins 93.5% of them.

See the range of FIVE Kerry undecided allocation scenarios (50 to 75%). That's 25,000 total election trials, at 5,000 per scenario.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/



Incumbent Rule
... Rule, means: Incumbent races should not be characterized in terms of point spread. If a poll shows one candidate leading 50% to 40%, with 10% undecided, a 10 ...
www.pollingreport.com/incumbent.htm - 16k - Sep 6, 2004 - Cached - Similar pages

MMyDD :: More on the Incumbent Rule
... an incumbent bias, but it is more of an incumbent tendency, rather than a rule (as Thune ... moderate voters are the most likely to be "undecided", do you ...
http://chris-bowers.mydd.com/story/2004/8/1/155729/3198 - 28k - Cached - Similar pages
< More results from chris-bowers.mydd.com >

Can House Democrats Reach Victory From Here?
... As a general rule, undecided voters follow politics less closely than voters who have ... be very unusual for these people to break for an established incumbent. ...
www.cookpolitical.com/column/2004/072504.php - 21k - Sep 6, 2004 - Cached - Similar pages

MyDD :: Incumbent Rule Research Update
... Is the incumbent rule weakening? ... The number of undecided voters is clearly going down. This year, I see no reason not to expect more of the same. ...
www.mydd.com/story/2004/9/3/22294/96534 - 35k - Cached - Similar pages

Swing State Project: Arizona
... project when 75% of the undecideds break for Kerry (in accordance with earlier research on the incumbent rule): ... Kerry: 45 Bush: 48 Other/Undecided: 7 (MoE: 4%). ...
www.swingstateproject.com/arizona/ - 49k - Cached - Similar pages

Swing State Project: August 2004
... Kerry: 46 (45) Bush: 46 (49) Undecided: 8 (6) (MoE: ±4%). ... 60% of the undecideds break for Kerry (in accordance with my research on the incumbent rule) and how ...
www.swingstateproject.com/2004/08/ - 101k - Cached - Similar pages
< More results from www.swingstateproject.com >

Understanding "Undecided" Voters
... a sitting governor decides to challenge an incumbent US Senator ... In almost all cases, "undecided" voters break heavily ... The major exception to this rule seems to ...
www.socastee.com/understand_undecided.html - 8k - Cached - Similar pages

Political State Report: straight from the trenches
... that 2/3rds of undecideds will break for the challenger (The Panagakis Incumbent Rule), will hold ... they like or dislike him and the bulk of undecided voters can ...
www.polstate.com/archives/005218.html - 16k - Cached - Similar pages

AOL News - Campaigns Focus on Undecided Voters
... As a rule, undecided voters ultimately go against the incumbent, rejecting someone they know in favor of someone they do not, a line of history noted by Mr. ...
http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/elections/article.adp?id=20040614111109990005 - 36k - Cached - Similar pages

Ace of Spades HQ: Undecideds Break for... <i>the Incumbent?!!?</i>
... which would be the natural action; if they're undecided by election day ... races that the "undecideds have already decided against the incumbent" rule applies. ...
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/043981.php - 13k - Cached - Similar pages

Wacky Neighbor: Flaunt it Baby!: The Thong in America's Collective ...
... I'm always a little mystified by these undecided voters. ... Luckily these folks are predictable. It's called the Incumbent Rule, and it states that: ...
http://wackyneighbor.com/archives/2004/08/the_great_maybe.php - 22k - Sep 6, 2004 - Cached - Similar pages


The 2004 Election - The Undecided Vote
... debates be in wooing these undecided voters, the ... important in an open, non-incumbent presidential election ... there are exceptions to every rule, but, typically ...
http://fpc.state.gov/fpc/35169.htm - 85k - Cached - Similar pages

Welcome to uExpress featuring Ted Rall -- The Best Advice and ...
... poll shows a third of Democrats undecided in evaluating ... Call it Rall's Rule of Ideological Counterbalance ... In 1992, Bill Clinton faced an incumbent president who ...
www.uexpress.com/tedrall/?uc_full_date=20030805 - 39k - Cached - Similar pages

Toomey Action Center Blog
... than not, about 2/3rds of the undecided vote will ... The rule, as set forth by Nick Panagakis, the president ... voters who lack confidence in the incumbent and are ...
www.uspatriots.us/toomey/blog/archives/00000086.htm - 19k - Cached - Similar pages

Toomey Action Center Blog
... Following the Incumbent Rule outlined several posts below, this makes it an extraordinarily close race! This poll indicates that the undecided voters are ...
www.uspatriots.us/toomey/blog/archives/00000088.htm - 11k - Cached - Similar pages

[Stuckinthebush]

1. Might be a big IF

What happens if the undecideds are split 50/50?

[TruthIsAll]

2. If you look at the Election Model, you will get your answer..

Kerry: 281 EV, win prob 69.7%

tia

[Stuckinthebush]

8. Didn't scroll down to the charts

While historically undecideds swing to the challenger, I have no faith in the electorate this year nor in the media to do its job. I believe that an allocation of 50% of undecideds to Kerry is more realistic.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

3. When you ran your most recent projections, does it include the RNC bounce?

[TruthIsAll]

4. Look at the numbers. They are current as of today.

I use the latest state polls for the simulation. Zogby just released a slew of new poll results.

I also look at 15 national polls, historical and most recent.

There's a lot of info in the model. It's all there. Just look at the 10 reports and 8 graphs.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. I did look over them quickly, I must've just missed it

Thanks though, and I apologize for not having seen it myself.

[TruthIsAll]

6. The initial summary screen and graphs tell the story....

The rest is voluminous detail to back up the analysis.

[BillZBubb]

7. TIA, do you have a breakdown on how the undecideds went

in the past few presidential elections? For instance, poll data a month before the election compared to exit polls?

I'd like to see the actual data on presidential races. My concern is that Bush* may do better than expected by playing the fear card. No doubt the last week in October, Tom Ridge will be making an urgent announcement...