South may be shifting in Democrats' direction

[Forkboy]

Party sees its best chance to alter the electoral map

HARRISONBURG, Va. - The racial divides that have buttressed Republican power in the South for decades appear to be crumbling in this year's elections, loosening the GOP's firm grip on the region, political analysts and independent pollsters say.

The South is still culturally conservative, and the deep South in particular is still challenging territory for Democrats, political specialists say. But demographic changes - including a migration of voters from other regions, as well as an increase in education and racial tolerance among some younger residents - have given Barack Obama and other Democrats an opening this year and are likely to change the electoral map in future elections, they said.

"There's definitely a shift going on," especially in states with larger cities, said Harry L. Wilson, director of the Center for Community Research at Roanoke College in Virginia. "If the Democrats are going to win these states back, this is the year to do it. I'm not saying a Republican couldn't win back in 2012 or 2016, but they won't be able to take it for granted the way they have in the past."

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/10/31/south_may_be_shifting_in_democrats_direction/

[mmonk]

1. It seems to have shifted more into a rural v. urban thing.

[Forkboy]

3. Yup.

Hopefully we can work on using any gains this year to strengthen that area next for 2012 and beyond.

[Kalyke]

9. It always has been an urban v. rural thing.

The problem, of course, has been that the South has far fewer urban areas than the North.

That is changing, as more and more Northerners move to the South to take advantage of our better weather and lower costs of living.

What would really cause the paradigm shift, however, is establishing liberal talk radio. Most people in the South, whilst commuting into the city from the rural areas, have only conservative talk radio to listen to if they want to opt for news instead of music (heck, even most of the music DJs down here are conservative). That brainwashes, for lack of a better word, the masses.

If there was more parity in talk radio, the South would never have gone red in 2000. Trust me, Nixon's "Southern Strategy" is/was a joke. It didn't work. The South was still voting for Carter and Clinton years after Nixon was disgraced. The shift was caused completely and soley by talk radio and the lack of talk choices.

[BearSquirrel2]

11. This is no shift ...

In the north we have the same dihotomy. When the only culture is the baptist church and CBN, it tends to lead to a very narrow range of opinion.

[Syrinx]

2. don't post anything even mildly positive about the south

You're likely to get banned. :)

[Forkboy]

4. If people knew parts of NH, Vermont and Maine they'd know that "rednecks" are not all Southen folks.

:)

[expatriate]

8. Try parts of upstate New York and Pennsylvania.

Redneckedness is not exclusive to any geographical region.

[JCMach1]

5. I have been saying this for two weeks now or more

[Forkboy]

6. Someone finally listened.

;)

:toast:

[JCMach1]

12. It's not like we are talking everything is Rosy... it's not

But Obama has a good shot to win the most Southern States since Carter.

[quickesst]

7. This is going to upset....

..more than a few here who are adamant in their opinions based not upon logic, common sense, and experience, but upon the typical stereotype offered by the truly biased and ignorant. According to one DUer, no inroads will be made until every single one of us between 40 and 60 die off. One suggested any democrats in the south is due to transplants from the north moving here. One wonders, if it's that bad here, why come? Seems progress is being made here, despite the efforts of some to deter fellow dems from voting for Obama by including them ala blanket-style in the shallow stereotypical vein they adhere to. Willful ignorance. The worst kind. This is a mirror of the same campaign by those who attempted to alienate Clinton supporters by associating all to the insignificant PUMA bunch and the like. Too late for me though, as I proudly cast my vote for the next president of the United States, Barak Obama, day before yesterday in a small town located in the central part of Arkansas. Observing the line I was in left me with the distinctly satisfying feeling that I was, by far, not alone. Thanks to the vast majority here who recognize that, for many of who were born, and raised in the south, the Civil War ended a long time ago. Thanks.
quickesst

[ncgrits]

10. Here, here! What you said!!!! ncgrits (nc girl raised in the south).

:loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya::loveya:

[JCMach1]

13. Exactly,

nice points

[Waiting For Everyman]

14. It's obviously changing.

Or it wouldn't be close in NC, GA, and FL, and VA wouldn't be blue. And it's blue! Those states wouldn't even be polling that way, if it wasn't changing.

The RW debacle for the last 8 years isn't a matter of opinion, it's fact. I think that is having an effect on people. How would it not?

[DevonRex]

15. I think there's a reverse Bradley effect in the South. There are

more than a few white voters there who would never say aloud that they're voting for a democrat and/or the black candidate. There is still a lot of peer pressure there to vote republican. But when these folks get into the voting booth they will vote their own opinion. And afterwards they'll never admit it, either to an exit poll person or to their friends and family.

I grew up there so I know what I'm talking about.

[texpatriot2004]

16. Many parts of the South were full of conservative Democrats, I

would love to see the South go blue.