Muhahaha. Stick it Zogby. You want to talk about individual nights polling? Let's talk about it.

[BzaDem]

In Research 2000, the last 3 nights in order were Wed O+5, Thurs O+8, and Fri O+9. Looks like Obama is going to win in a landslide.

:rofl:

In all seriousness, individual polling doesn't usually reflect anything. Of course, if there was sudden massive movement from one candidate to another, the individual polling would reflect that, but the converse is not true. Just because individual day polling swings wildly doesn't mean anything has swung in reality.

[WeDidIt]

1. I like Zogby's numbers

Zogby always uses weighted party ID based upon the prior election. So he actually has a higer percentage of Republicans in his polls than Democrats this year.

If you weight correctly, Obama should be upo by about 12 in Zogby's poll.

[dennis4868]

3. Research 2000

has a breakdown of 35% dems and 26% repubs....not an accurate breakdown in my opinion....

[WeDidIt]

5. Based upon registrations, it's dead on accurate. n/t

[dennis4868]

6. WE KNOW THAT...

there are more registered dems than repubs...problem is too many dems do not go and vote....the problem in 2004 and past elections...

[WeDidIt]

7. This is NOT 2004

The sooner you realize that, the better you'll feel.

[dennis4868]

8. right...

but do you really think that in 4 years the breakdown will jump from even amount of dems and repubs voting to a +9 for dems?

I wonder what the breakdown is with other daily polls....

[WeDidIt]

9. Yes, actually. I do.

In fact, it could be as much as 12 or 13 percent as a difference.

The reasoning is the number of REpublicans who have jumped ship to the Dems. This presents a strong case for at least a 9% difference for a few reasons. First, when a REpubican re-registers as a Dem, it alters that difference by 2 rather than 1 voter (-1 Rep +1 Dem). Second, these people who have jumped ship are highly likely to vote. Third, voter identification as independent has remained static which tends to suggest much of the alteration comes from REpublicans jumping ship to the Dems. Finally, voter enthusiasm on the Democratic side is higher than it has been in decades which would suggest Republican turnout will be depressed, thus accounting for a disparity in voter ID being on par with the registration disparity.

[jefferson_dem]

2. "SHOCK POLL: OBAMA +9 YESTERDAY!" (in bolded red 44 pt. font)

We should expect this headline on sludge's site, right?

Oh, we can probably expect Obama's edge to climb tomorrow, when Wed's +5 falls off.

[Schulzz]

4. WE are the ones who can prove Zogby wrong. If Democrats turn out big this time -

as early voting numbers across the country are suggesting - his poll will be off by a healthy margin. He is using a 2004 model..

[nygrl224]

10. I'm new, but I just looked at Zogby's numbers and it was 49-44 Obama

am I not looking at the right thing? even when you go to Drudge and click their link saying McCain is leading, it takes me to the page that says 49-44

[BzaDem]

11. 49-44 is an average of the last 3 nights. McCain was leading in last night's polling

and Obama was leading in the other two nights.

[jefferson_dem]

12. Welcome aboard the DU!

:hi: