The Obama Majority

[DaveT]

As the last few days of the election campaign play out, I think it is a good time to take a deep breath and try to gather in the overall picture of what has happened. We have seen a fundamentally different political dynamic unfold, and I think that underlying dynamic will gather momentum in the next few elections -- and the nervous concern over Sarah Palin and the angry "base" of the Republican Party will turn out to be a waste of energy.

The last two elections were very close, close enough for vote counting anomolies or manipulations to determine the winner. Voting blocs seemed to be frozen as the country was divided between red and blue, urban and rural, religious and secular, white and black. When an historically unprecedented proportion of the GOP base turned out in 2004, the balance was tipped ever so slightly toward Bush, and the high water mark for the alleged "movement" of conservatism crested in 2005.

Since then the right wing governing majority has unraveled: the political debacle of trying to "reform" Social Security; the bizarre stubborness of Shrub's staying the course in Iraq; the shame of Katrina; the frog march parade of GOP congressmen toward the crossbar hotel for bribery; the repeated exposure of GOP hypocricy on the subject of homosexuality; the further hypocricy of the GOP on the topic of immigration; the gathering avalanche of debt at all levels of our utterly un-conservative society; the rout at the polls in November of 2006; the embarrassing spectacle of transparent frauds like Romney and Guiliani kowtowing to that "Base" -- and finally, spare part John McCain securing the nomination for no other reason than all the other candidates were jokes.

Four days before election, it is theorically possible that McCain might still pull out the election -- even if he does it does not subtract from the fact that Obama has assembled a majority of the electorate during this campaign that overwhelms the Bush/Rove strategy of 2000 and 2004. Micro-strategy in the final 100 hours that somehow manages to get voters to bail on That One does not change the underlying dynamic that built Obama's lead in the first place.

It is based on three factors:

1. Demographics -- the young and the unwhite do not respond to the sexually fixated right wing obsessions with abortion and gay rights. Nor do they respond to the relgious right's assertion that this is A Christian Nation. The young and the unwhite constitute a growing portion of the electorate and there is no cohort coming to replenish the ranks of the religious right.

2. Howard Dean's Contribution -- Dean identified and mobilized the educated, urban progressive millions and turned them into a fundraising alternative to the corporate fat cats. Obama built on that precedent and has raised unbelievable amounts of money. Dean also pushed the idea of a 50 state strategy, which Obama is following with a vengence. Karl Rove's electoral college map is now history.

3. Economic Reality -- debt has changed the economy forever. Both Clinton and Bush were able to point to an expanding economy, although Clinton's numbers were dramatically better. However, in both cases, the success came from a series of debt inflated speculative bubbles. For a generation, the USA has consumed far more than we have produced, and the result that finally crashed down upon us this fall was inevitable. The daily headlines will fluctuate with the fluctuations of the various stock and commodities markets, but the happy ride on borrowed money is over. This means that the GOP siren song of Tax Cuts as well as the macho appeal of foreign wars are now beyond our economic means. The big crash helped Obama this fall, and probably decided the election. The new economic reality will decide the next several elections as well.


Since Reagan established right wing dominance in 1980, the GOP has enjoyed a huge majority of the white vote, and it has cut taxes and fought wars both cold and hot, establishing itself as the party of national security. Of course, in my personal opinion kicking Grenada's ass was proof of weakness rather than strength, but that is not how a majority of the white majority looked at it.

Obama's majority is based on an entirely different set of social, political and economic realities. Even if last minute Bradley Effect racism suddenly rears its head like Putin over the Alaskan sky, the future does not belong to the Republican Party.

It is up to us to live up to the challenge of holding power. Personally, I think Obama will get us off to a great start.

[DaveT]

1. whew

it doesn't take long to fall off the first page . . . .