Any remaining suspense will be erased at 9:01 p.m. EST

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

The networks will all be chomping at the bit to call it at 9 p.m. They may not do so, but many developments will make the handwriting on the wall extremely legible:

(all times EST)

* If Va. has not been called (polls will have been closed since 7 p.m.), Obama will nonetheless be ahead by 5+ points with no sign that McCain's strongholds aren't already accounted for. Same goes for Pa. (8 p.m. close)
* Indiana (6/7 p.m. closes) and Missouri (8 p.m.) may both be tighter than more partisan states, but Obama will be a few points ahead in at least one of them.
* Exit polls will be immediately released showing that Colorado and New Mexico (both 9 p.m. closes) are cleanly in Obama's camp.
* Ohio, Florida and N.C. will also be clearly trending Blue.
* For good measure, throw in a few tighter-than-should-have-been Red states (AZ, AR, GA -- maybe SD or WV) where McCain may be slightly ahead but that can't be called. Georgia may be the surprise of the night.

I count 275 EVs just after 9 p.m. EST: CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, PA, RI, VT, VA and WI, plus either IN or MO.

Because they don't want to repeat their 2000 error, the networks will need to be super careful, and they'll triple-check the narrow calls that put Obama past 270. But as we move well past 9 p.m., the temptation to call the race will be nearly irresistible.

[progressive_realist]

1. I expect Iowa to put him over 270 at 10:00 Eastern.

I'm a little more conservative than you and suspect IN and MO will both be so close that they may not be called Tuesday night one way or the other. If this is the case, IA puts him over the threshold an hour before polls close on the west coast.

[quiet.american]

2. Interesting. nt

[PoiBoy]

3. I expect the networks to call it for McCain at around 11am EST...

...on Nov. 4, and pound that meme all day long to encourage everyone to stay home and not bother voting...





:sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm::sarcasm:

[Mz Pip]

4. I expect FOX to be in

full spin mode all weekend up through the polls closing on the east coast. Once the results start coming in it should be fun to watch.