The crosstabs in that Rasmussen-PA poll show how bad it is.

[Blondbostonian]

I have access to Rasmussen polls.

McCain is pulling 20% of the black vote in the crosstabs of that PA poll. Also, McCain wins the 18-29 age bracket 54-46, and the 30-39 bracket 60-35. Obama wins all the older age brackets.

In other words, this poll is much ado about nothing. Carry on :)

[SuperTrouper]

1. 20% 0f the black vote? LOL!!!!!!

[VeraAgnes]

8. I only know one AA

who will vote mcshame....out of thousands.

[democrattotheend]

9. For some reason, robopolls tend to make black voters more Republican

I work for political organization, and some of our partners have experimented with robopolling. They were getting really weird results with the black vote, like 30% of blacks in Minnesota being for McCain. Rasmussen is a robopoll so that could have something to do with it. I do believe that the black vote may be a little less monolithic than reported in the polls, because I have been told while canvassing that in some black neighborhoods and social circles it's not socially acceptable not to be for Obama...I had one man tell me during the primaries that he was afraid if he put up a Hillary sign he would have his window smashed. I suspect this effect is less during the general election than it was during the primaries though, because most African Americans vote Democrat anyway. But I think there might be some lying to live callers that you would not see in a robopoll, but I don't think McCain is really getting 20% of the black vote in PA. Although the N size is probably pretty small, so that could help explain it. Sometimes the internals of a poll are funky but the overall # is right.

[dennis4868]

2. HAHA!

20% of the black vote to McCain? This is a joke of a poll..NO WAY JOSE!

[SuperTrouper]

3. The African Americans are joking with Rasmussen misleading him to give bad poll results

[dennis4868]

5. maybe a gun was put...

to their head until Rass got the "right" answer to the questions....any poll that gives that high a number to McCain must be immediately thrown into the trash and made irrelevant forever....

[Essene]

14. more likely... he only called 10 african americans... all in the most conservative area

[BlooInBloo]

4. BWAHAHAHA!!!!

[KingFlorez]

6. That is so ridiculous

In 2004, Bush only got 39% of the 18-29 bracket and 16% of the black vote, there is no way McCain is going to improve upon those numbers, if anything they will plummet.

[Schulzz]

7. Sounds like he tried hard to make it look like a close race. nt

[HughMoran]

10. Rasmussen isn't known for their state polls

They appear to be on crack in their PA poll.

[Barack_America]

11. That right there tells you they're underrepresenting Philly voters in their poll.

They're talking to people in the suburbs. That's the ONLY way you get 20% African American support for McCain, other than people just blatantly fucking with Rasmussen, of course.

[Two Sheds]

12. African-Americans form what percentage of the PA electorate?

I did some math assuming a 700 voter sample and figured that a more likely AA voter result would have swung the poll from four to eight points.
Again, does anyone know what the #'s are for registered African-American voters in PA?

[S_E_Fudd]

13. So in a poll of 500 people...of which mayb 65 are African American...

If you go by percentage of the population as a whole (not sure what it is in PA). So only 13 in a random sample have to say they are for McCain to get this result...probably happens once in a while...but not consistently...shows why a one day sample has such a large MoE which is even higher for any given subgroup...

[Two Sheds]

15. According to Wikipedia, the African-American pop. of PA is 11% or so

a more representative result would have moved the poll almost 2% in the direction of Obama.

[Phx_Dem]

16. Sure, African Americans are waiting in 10 hour lines to

vote for the mean old white racebaiter. Yeah, and I'm the Queen of England.

[4lbs]

17. Any poll that shows more than 5% of the African-American vote going for McCain is just stupid.

n/t

[Two Sheds]

18. I think 5% would be stretching it.

African-American turnout will be huge and it will almost be unanimous.