I'm prepared to eat crow: Obama may well win Georgia.

[Zynx]

I said time and time again during the primaries that there wasn't a chance in Hell Obama could win Georgia. I stand corrected. Not only is the polling close, but if the early voting keeps holding up, he can win and win actually somewhat easily.

By the percentages, 60.5% of the vote is white, 35.1% is black, and others are at 4.4%.

Say Obama gets 95% of the Black vote. That's 33.25% of the overall vote. Add to that 25% of the White vote, which is doable. That adds 15.125% bringing Obama's total to 48.375%. Then say Obama gets 60% of the Hispanic, Asian, and mixed race vote. That adds 2.64% of the vote to Obama's total. That brings him up to about 51%. That's all quite doable. The early vote constitutes over 60% of the 2004 total so this is not an unreasonable forecast.

Now, it is true that the percentage of the vote that is black may go down, but it is unlikely to collapse. Fulton and De Kalb counties are still far below their 2004 numbers for total votes and they will probably surpass them by a fair amount. These are heavily black counties. This will help to keep the black percentage of the vote up. So long as it stays north of 33%, Obama has a damn good chance of taking this state. If Obama gets 28% of the White vote, he just flat out wins. It's as simple as that. Kerry got about 24%. Obama might do better despite race because the Georgia economy is awful. It's just flat out bad.

So, I concede, I am willing to eat serious crow on the issue of Georgia. I am a big enough man to swallow my pride and I apologize for the rudeness I showed some posters earlier in the year. I wish I could remember your names so I could apologize specifically.

[The Wielding Truth]

1. From you lips to God's ears! Obama should win Georgia!

[Zynx]

4. I'm hoping. I'm really hoping. I would like Obama to get 40% of the white vote like in VA

but that's just not going to happen. If it did, man would he crush that state.

[groundloop]

39. Saw on Dailykos .....

That Obama is leading in Georgia's early voting 55% to 40%. That's a tremendous start.

My wife was standing on the corner of a busy intersection today with people from the local Obama office, she said it was surprising how many people honked or waved their support (surprising because we're in a fairly red county).

Sadly, she said there were a few incidents of racial insults, including one from someone whose car had an educator's license plate. Everyone there was instructed to simply reply "God bless you" when something like that happened - getting down to those idioit's level obviously won't do any good.

[deadmessengers]

2. No crow needed.

I thought McLame had a snowball's chance in hell of getting the Repugnican nomination, and look what happened.

Anyway - Georgia is going to be TIGHT on election day, make no mistake about it. Turnout among the African-American community has been enormous will this point, and of the 50 states, Georgia has the second largest proportion of African-Americans in the electorate. I went to vote Monday and my wife and I had to wait SEVEN hours here in suburban Atlanta. I still believe that Georgia is flippable, and with Bob Barr taking votes away from McCain, it can only get better for us.

Anyway - put away your plate of crow, and get ready to celebrate on Tuesday night. I, personally, am looking forward to having a MONSTER hangover on Wednesday morning - champagne does that to me. :-)

[AtomicKitten]

3. Bon appetit!

Meant in the nicest way, of course.

[Honeycombe8]

5. What are the latest poll #s for GA? An average of polls. Oh, heck, I'll just look it up. nt

[Zynx]

6. It's low single digits for McCain.

However, inside CNN's numbers the registered voter number had Obama up a little bit.

[Honeycombe8]

11. Thx. I looked it up, too. Realclearpolitics. McCain +3. It IS close. But....

McCain has fairly consistently polled at over 50% in GA all year. That's tough to beat.

Still....3% is mighty small, mighty small.

Here are the poll results:

RCP Average 10/27 - 10/30 -- -- 49.0 46.0 McCain +3.0

Rasmussen 10/30 - 10/30 500 LV 4.5 52 47 McCain +5
Research 2000 10/28 - 10/30 600 LV 4.0 47 44 McCain +3
InAdv/PollPosition 10/27 - 10/27 637 LV 3.8 48 47 McCain +1


Wow. I never would've thought it.

[Zynx]

13. Those models don't assume anything like a 35% black electorate.

If that even comes close to holding up, it's big news.

[Honeycombe8]

42. I don't understand. It doesn't matter who the electorate is/are. A poll polls EVERYBODY.

By definition, a cross-state poll grabs anybody and everybody who are registered or likely voters.

Doesn't matter whether one person says 35% of the registered voters are black, while someone else says 20% of them are. The poll captures the voters, whoever they may be.

[Zynx]

44. If I took a poll of Utah that showed it 53% Democratic, what would you say?

[eleny]

7. Bob Barr should siphon off a percent or two, as well

[Zynx]

9. What could make it happen easily is if Barr attracts Conservative White Democrats

who have a hard time backing Obama, but can't vote Republican.

[Justice]

8. No crow here; it is right to be optimistic. Would like Chambliss to go down.

[President Decider]

10. I was one that said "Obama could very well win Georiga" about 3 months ago .... I was laughed at

[Zynx]

12. I know. I laughed at you. ;-)

[Frumious B]

14. Save me a drumstick and I'll eat it with joy!

A couple of weeks ago I flatly told a coworker that Obama was not going to win Georgia.

[wildeyed]

15. At least it is yummy crow!

And I hope Chambliss goes down, too!

[CurtEastPoint]

16. Shopping today at Whole Foods in Midtown ATL, PLENTY OF O stickers, none for McNutso...

However, inside 285 it's pretty blue. But even yesterday driving thru ritzy old northside ATL (old money) I again saw PLENTY of O signs, and 1 for Mc*.

If GA does this, I will gargle peanut butter naked in Macy's window at lunchtime!

[BlooInBloo]

17. No need for crow on that. No intelligent person could have predicted that possibility.

[Laelth]

25. I beg your pardon?

I consider myself intelligent. :)

Consider this post, please: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Laelth/18

Happy days! :toast:

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[Ozma]

18. I don't know if crow is tasty, but you can have Sweet Potato Pie!

Instead!

[trof]

19. I'd recommend it with a nice Chardonnay.

And maybe some roasted parsnips and a Caesar salad.
Garlic bread.
Chard is 'our' wine, ya know.
;-)

[DuaneBidoux]

20. I agree. It's absolutely a blast to be wrong like that!

[dkofos]

21. Is "Rob Georgia" in play again this year in your voting machines??

[Gregorian]

33. I think the sheer amount of lawyers that Obama has employed

just may intimidate judges who may be getting these cases. And maybe even those who planned on perpetrating machine miscounts.


I had a talk with my dad this morning. He is one of the founders of the pc computer revolution. He's burning about this whole machine bs. And it is bs. Digital devices are highly accurate. They don't miscount. Anyways, I have a little confidence that Obama is on this. Although I don't usually put my trust in anyone. He's as good as they get.

[Rowdyboy]

22. Hell, I'm starting to wonder if my hometown in Mississippi is in play

Barack Obama is not your fathers Democratic party.

[Yukari Yakumo]

23. Two words (which everyone seems to overlook): Bob Barr

It may not be much, but he'll likely drain 3-4% of Mc:nuke:'s support away. That further helps The Barack in Georgia.

[vaberella]

27. Don't forget the people writing in Ron Paul. There is no doubt he's getting numbers. n/t

[I LIKE IKE 61]

28. I heard it moths ago.

McCain would lose Ga. I thought that there was no chance. My boss at work explained it like this: Polls do not catch a lot of young voters, and voters who only use mobile phones. There are plenty of voters 35 and younger who might vote for Obama. Enough of those along with the 35% black turnout and Obama wins the peach state. Period. Lets just hope that the rednecks in South and North Georgia and the Repuke High income familes in North Atlanta area do not drown out the Dem voters state wide!!!

"Obama's numbers will not come in untill 11:00 in the Northern suburbs of Atlanta. Ga may well be the stae that puts Obama over the top on election night." - Matt Towery on WSBTV in ATL .

[Laelth]

24. Not to say I told you so, but ... I did.

Here: http://journals.democraticunderground.com/Laelth/18

Happy days! :toast:

The United States is a LIBERAL Country.

:dem:

-Laelth

[happychatter]

26. I thought he'd lose in Iowa and take Louisiana

so much for MY judgement

but Georgia and Missouri and (pleezjeezus) Florida would be just FINE by me

[Lochloosa]

29. They are really good grilled.

[CADEMOCRAT7]

30. I hope you are right, and that Martin also wins.

I have seen and heard the lines are very long in GA. This is amazing and historic !
I do not care for your Secretary of State and her refusal to extend voting hours. It just might back fire on her. Repugs who are not as enthusiastic as we are may just bail out of the lines and not vote !

[Two Sheds]

31. If enough conservatives get up on Tuesday AM and the story is...

an impending Obama victory...they may just vote for Barr in #'s large enough to make a difference. Hometown Boy, more of a "traditional conservative" than McCain (who, after all, is losing to "that one").

[lojasmo]

32. Good analysis. Gobama! N/T

[Awsi Dooger]

34. No crow

McCain will win Georgia and it won't be as tight as the final polling average. Georgia state polls always overstate the Democrat.

[grantcart]

35. We don't keep track of past statements - thats not what we do

That's what google is for lol;

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6117802&mesg_id=6125462

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6137660#6141909

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=6117802&mesg_id=6121742


It has been inspiring to see the early voting in Georgia and North Carolina. I see these numbers and I am just amazed. I am pissed that we are not watching this on the TV. This is what our founding fathers would have been most proud of.

Georgia has been 35% AA since the first report (Georgia AA population is estimated at 30%). It hasn't gone down or up one point. As you point out if you get 35% AA vote (assuming normal percentages for all demographics) then Obama only has to get 25-6% of the remaining vote to win.

In North Carolina the AA vote is smaller, 26% but the Democrats are stronger there and that amounts to an advantage of 512,455 Democrats over Republicans already voting. That does not include independents.

The Republicans didn't see it, the pollsters didn't see it, franky the other Democratic candidates didn't see it.

And frankly the Obama campaign didn't fully embrace it as they cut back on Georgia last month.

Early Voting in North Carolina and Georgia are going to break the back of the McCain campaign before the first votes are cast on Tuesday.

Your OP is very generous and isn't it great that we have such great news to bring us together. Such very great news. 35% in Georgia. 21.8% advantage in North Carolina. Three more days of work and the Bush regime will be left in ashes.

[morillon]

36. I totally believe he's going to win Georgia.

I've thought this for several months now when I started seeing how vastly outnumbered all the McCain stickers were on the interstates and major roads around Atlanta, particularly in formerly Republican districts like the one where we live. I've also been monitoring the donation percentages on OpenSecrets.org. Our zip code is completely upside down from what it was in 2004 with regard to donations to Dems vs. Repubs.

We did phone-banking today at our local Obama HQ, and it was a struggle to find a place to sit. There were dozens and dozens of people streaming in and out of the place all day long.

[meow mix]

37. HERES a nice thread id like to point out!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4585118

[Zynx]

38. I had much more biting statements than that one.

[Dawgs]

40. Obama could lose PA, OH, FL and still win with GA, VA, and NM.

Not going to happen though. If he wins GA it will be a landslide.

[Doctor_J]

41. I guess there will be pigs flying out of my butt too

:thumbsup:

[me b zola]

43. It will be the best tasting crow that you've ever eaten!

Just imagine your favorite chef preparing the meal, seasoning and cooking to perfection. Sometimes crow can be fabulous. :)