WTF? McCain's 538.com chances IMPROVE...?

[regnaD kciN]

He was at 2.8% before, now up to 3.8%, after today's polls, which weren't particularly favorable for him.

:wtf:

No analysis posted yet. Might it be the new adjustment to their model?

ON EDIT: Since this seems to have been replied to by a whole bunch of DUers who apparently got so wiped out in the current economic collapse that they can no longer afford to buy a clue, I will point out that I'm NOT panicking about a 1% change. It just seemed to me that today was a particularly bad polling day for McCain, and so I thought it odd that his chances would improve. I was actually expecting them to drop below 2.5% in today's runs.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. OMG! WHAT ARE WE GOING TO FUCKING DO?! HE'S SURGING! I AM FREAKING OUT!

OMGFUCKINGGODJESUS!

[Connie_Corleone]

3. WE'RE DOOOOMED!!!!!!

[regnaD kciN]

10. It's not that anyone's panicking. I just don't see...

...how someone with a 2.8% chance can have all but one of the tracking polls go against them, no favorable state polls to think of, but still gain another percent. Like I said, it might be part of their new model, but otherwise it just doesn't make any sense.

[Jackpine Radical]

19. I was gonna say that.

[Sebastian Doyle]

31. THE SURGE IS WERKING !1!111!!!!

FREEPERS UBER ALLES !11!!!!!1!!!

:rofl:

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

2. 3.8% still isn't anything to write home about.

Probably just statistical noise.

[dennis4868]

4. I am sure Nate will explain...

in due time...and don't worry about a 1% jump.....

[FVZA_Colonel]

52. He's got today's analysis out:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/todays-polls-111.html

Pennsylvania has been moved to "merely" a 98% chance of victory for Obama, and as Nate said:


BE WARRAY OF ANY POLLS CONDUCTED YESTERDAY!

[PCIntern]

5. Up 30%+

At this rate in 2 weeks it'l be tied!!

Oops, what day is it?

[justiceischeap]

6. 1%? 1 Fucking %? Shoot me now!

I'm guessing it has to do with the new model.

[PCIntern]

7. Up 30%+

At this rate in 2 weeks it'l be tied!!

Oops, what day is it?

[BlooInBloo]

8. Maybe you missed the post where Nate said he was changing his model....

To weight recent polls more heavily than it did previously.

[Jennicut]

11. Yup, that is what happened.

[BlooInBloo]

16. Doesn't matter. It won't stop the griefing doom & gloomers.

[regnaD kciN]

14. Maybe YOU missed MY original post...

...where I speculated that the only possible explanation might be the change in their model.

:eyes:

[BlooInBloo]

18. Yes, I did miss your original post. I only saw the edited post.

[regnaD kciN]

22. Both the orignal post and its edit had the same passage...

"Might it be the new adjustment to their model?"

[BlooInBloo]

23. I can only take your word for that.

[regnaD kciN]

29. By that standard...

...I can only take your word that you're not a Freeper troll. (See how that works?)

[BlooInBloo]

30. False. There's long posting history to support that claim.

[regnaD kciN]

33. But, of course, I only have your word...

...that you aren't a Freeper troll who has been spending a long time building a cover here, and plan to "unmask" on Election Day.

FWIW, this was how my first try at the OP ran:

He was at 2.8% before, now up to 3.8%, after today's polls?

:wtf:

Might it be the new adjustment to their model?

I edited it the first time because I didn't think I was clear enough.

Of course, you're free to doubt this, just as anyone else here is free to doubt your genuineness.

[Marsala]

9. Probably the state polls shifting slightly

There have been some polls showing Pennsylvania closer than before, which would marginally improve McCain's chances. The national trackers are almost irrelevant at this stage.

[caledesi]

25. I smell pizza! NT

[FVZA_Colonel]

26. Isn't PPP rumored to have a good poll for Obama coming out tonight?

[regnaD kciN]

35. I think it's actually supposed to be tomorrow night...

...at least, that's what someone posted not too long ago.

[FVZA_Colonel]

39. Well, I heard Saturday, but as long as it's good I can wait a day.

[Schulzz]

12. If McCain can now delay the election for 7 weeks, he will reach 50%+!

We are doomed! :scared: :scared: :scared:

[HughMoran]

13. OMFG!!! 3.8%!!! Did you read the article where he said he was adjusting his model?

Read this -> http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/technical-note.html

[regnaD kciN]

17. What part of...

..."Might it be the new adjustment to their model?" don't you understand? :crazy:

[HughMoran]

27. So why did you post this then?

If you surmised that & spent more than 5 seconds at this site, you would HAVE SEEN the article on him changing his models and would KNOW this was responsible for the MINUSCULE 1% change.

Sorry, but this is one of the most INANE posts of the day.

[regnaD kciN]

28. Because I was curious about it...

Even with the model change, I would have expected McCain's chances to drop even further. It just seemed odd to me.

Sorry, but your username is looking more accurate by the second.

[HughMoran]

34. Read the article!!!!!

It says

"As you'll see in a bit, it turns out that this adjustment does not make all that much difference. It brings John McCain a little bit closer in Pennsylvania (but certainly not a lot closer), and Obama a little closer in a couple of states like North Dakota. Still, every little bit of accuracy helps, especially when we're dealing with highly sensitive calculations like our tipping point states."

Geez, my ID is a JOKE, and I READ SOURCES before posting crap on DU.

You're the one being a moran - sorry.

[regnaD kciN]

38. I read the fucking article already!

I know that it said that it would improve McCain's chances in PA slightly, but it didn't seem to me that this would be enough to sway his overall chances by that much.

And you're being a horse's ass. I can't believe that I can simply ask a question out of curiosity over a minor but unlikely shift in the rankings, and have everyone assume that I'm either a concern troll or panicking. I don't think a change from 2.8% to 3.8% means all that much. Hell, for that matter, I wouldn't have thought a change from 2.8% to, say, 7.8% would have mattered in the great scheme of things, except that I would have found it curious enough to comment on.

And the paranoia at this place has really gotten excessive.

ON EDIT: Added a comma after "say" to correct a grammatical error, in case anyone here decides I changed the post in order to conceal something I originally wrote.

[HughMoran]

40. "I don't think a change from 2.8% to 3.8% means all that much"

Thanks!

On that we can end this conversation in complete agreement!!

:D

[DarthDem]

36. Here's the Part I Don't Understand

If you got that, then why the fuck did you post??? Jesus.

[regnaD kciN]

41. Because, as I said before...

...it doesn't seem to me that a minor change in the PA chances would be enough to raise McCain overall from 2.8% to 3.8%. It just seemed odd to me.

But nothing as odd as some of the paranoid, overreacting replies posted here.

[Kittycat]

15. ZOMG!!1! This is HUGH!!111! That means he only has a 96.2% chance of losing!!!elevenone!

[liberalmuse]

20. Holy Fucking Shit! We are truly doomed!

I completely understand the stomach drops at every iota of a percentage of a point that sways in McCain's favor, but if you step back and breathe a little, you'll realize that we're doing pretty damn good.

[Zynx]

21. It's probably the new model.

[Sodan]

24. game over, man, game over..

[Occam Bandage]

32. He also adjusted his model today. That seems the obvious choice.

[gravity]

37. Drudge will use this for the comeback narrative

McCain gots Obama right where he wants him.

[HughMoran]

42. by the groin?

:rofl:

[regnaD kciN]

45. Oh, I don't think even Drudge could attempt that...

...besides, he probably considers Nate a "far-left loony liberal moonbat." OTOH, I could see him taking the latest Ras (?) PA poll showing Obama +4 (ignoring all the other polls, of course), and spin it as something like "Obama loses 2/3 of his Pennsylvania lead in two days!!!!!!" :eyes:

[FUCK_BUSH]

43. I have to be honest with you , Mccain will win this election.it's fucked up but it's true.

[quakerboy]

44. Hey. Anyday Utah dosn't flip blue

is a good day for McP, at this point.

[Phx_Dem]

46. OMG. 3.8 percent! Shit. He's gonna win!!

ROLF. McRage has probably seen a tiny bump in national polls because his support by white supremists in Idaho has solidified.

[darius15]

47. Nothing to worry about. My guess is that PA has moved from O+10 to O+6-7. That's why his overall %

went up.

[renate]

48. your OP seems pretty clear to me

I think many people assume that anybody posting poll results that show any kind of upward trend for McCain is, ipso facto, freaking out. You clearly weren't.

:hug:

[ladywnch]

49. McCain had been at 3.7 the day before he went to te 2.8.....

he hasn't been better the 3.8 for the last week

[obiwan]

50. Ever heard of "Freeping"?

[obiwan]

51. I like deluxe pizza. Hold the anchovies and olives, please.