Flashback: Why Obama will win VA, MO, NC and possibly GA

[nyccitizen]

One of the GOP talking points this past week about our superior polling has been that Obama constantly "underperformed" his polling during the primaries.

But let's look closer.

In four of McCain's must-win states, Obama radically OUTperformed the final poll numbers:

North Carolina RCP final spread, Obama + 8.0; Actual Results, Obama +14.7

Virginia RCP final spread, Obama + 17.7; Actual Results, Obama + 28.2

Georgia RCP final spread, Obama + 18; Actual Results, Obama + 35.3 (!!)

Missouri RCP final spread, Clinton + 5.7; Actual Results, Obama + 1.3


Now, compare this to the current battleground states where he "underperformed":

Pennsylvania RCP final spread, Clinton + 6.1; Actual Results Clinton + 9.2

Ohio RCP final spread, Clinton + 7.1; Actual Results Clinton + 10.1


Now remember that the final RCP polls contained undecided voters, and obviously the final results do not, so the small disparity in PA and OH is accounted for by the undecideds breaking towards the winner. On the other hand, the massive disparities in NC, VA, GA, and MO show that support for Obama was DRASTICALLY underestimated in these states.

It's also important to note that of the current battleground states, OBAMA DID NOT LOSE A SINGLE STATE WHERE HE WAS AHEAD IN THE POLLS.

[Sherman A1]

1. I knew Obama would take NC in the Spring based upon

primary voter turnout. Both he and HRC individually had more votes than the entire Republican slate of candidates.

[Hokie]

2. No Bradley effect

The Bradley effect is a myth. I posted about it this morning.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=7692448&mesg_id=7692448

[life_long_dem]

3. Huckabee beat McLame in GA primary and McLame barely won

in MO primary.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgia_Republican_primary,_2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missouri_Republican_primary,_2008