This is my safe prediction for Election Night (Obama states and McCain states)

[...of J.Temperance]

I'd ask you to pay attention to my operative word of "safe", my safe prediction, at the MINIMUM this is what I think the Electoral College map will say on Election Night.

Of course Senator Obama could win Florida, Nevada, Ohio etc....but the below are my SAFE predictions, and Senator Obama's minimum based on my reading the past week various state polls.

So before a bunch of people say "no way does he lose Ohio or Nevada", keep in mind the words SAFE PREDICTION.

Obama/Biden = 281
McCain/Palin = 257

I think the states that Obama/Biden will win are the following, total EC votes = 281:

Washington State

Oregon - Gordon Smith to lose Senate race, Democratic pick-up

California

Colorado - Tom Udall to win Senate race, Democratic pick-up

Minnesota - Norm Coleman to lose Senate race, Democratic pick-up

Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Pennsylvania

VIRGINIA - In my opinion now the KEY state, the one which should put Sen. Obama through the 270, also Mark Warner to win Senate race, Democratic pick-up

New York
New Jersey
Maine
Vermont

New Hampshire - John Sununu to lose Senate race, Democratic pick-up

Massachucetts
Rhode Island

Connecticut - Christopher Shays will lose Congressional seat, Democratic pick-up

Delaware
Maryland
Washington DC
Hawaii


The states that I think McCain/Palin will win are the following, total EC votes = 257

Keep in mind this is the BEST that McCain/Palin can hope for and they would STILL lose:

Montana
Idaho
Nevada
Utah
Arizona

New Mexico - Mark Udall to win Senate race, Democratic pick-up

Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Indiana
Kansas
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Texas
Louisiana
Arkansas
Missouri
Mississippi
Alabama
Ohio

Georgia - Senate race will go to a run-off in December, Saxby Chambliss will lose, Democratic pick-up

Florida
South Carolina

North Carolina - Elizabeth Dole will lose Senate race, Democratic pick-up

Tennessee
West Virginia

Alaska - Ted Stevens will lose Senate race, Democratic pick-up


On Edit: Dammit error

[rockymountaindem]

1. You mixed up the Udalls

[...of J.Temperance]

2. Sorry, but who cares as both are going to win

:)

In general, as far as safe predictions go on the EC map, am I right or am I right?

[...of J.Temperance]

3. Okay, so nobody responds, nobody gives a shit, sorry for posting a

Well thought out OP.

The only response I get is from someone posting something trivial as I mixed up the Udall brothers.

YEAH....WHATEVER....BIG FUCKING DEAL.

Why do I fucking waste my time? Dunno, I'll have a think about that.

I shouldn't have posted this thread, I knew HUNDREDS would view the thread and NOBODY would respond.


Moderators just delete the thread.

On Edit: Whatever who cares

[...of J.Temperance]

4. How MANY threads have been posted re. Palin prank call from Quebec?

Tons, we now have ANOTHER, posted by someone with THIRTY POSTS to their name and it's only like the hundreth thread on Palin thinking the Canadian fellow was Sarkozy.

Yet MORE people responded to ANOTHER what amounts to a DUPLICATE thread, how many duplicate threads does there need to be each day on the SAME subject?

I mean I only have MORE than 8,000 posts, so who cares huh? 30 posts is much better to respond to than 8,000 posts yes?


On Edit: Dammit spelling error

[RollWithIt]

5. I still say this is a huge landslide, 392 for Obama

Or 391 if he doesn't carry Eastern Nebraska. Obama carries Georgia and Louisiana.

[...of J.Temperance]

6. They DON'T respond because people REFUSE to accept that

Anything less that 390 is a realistic number.

I'm sorry for being REALISTIC....it'll be between 281-300, and that's GOOD yes, because it means we win.

I'm not going to be delusional and think we're going to win nearly 400 EC votes.

On Edit: Dammit spelling error

[ccharles000]

8. ...

:hug:

[...of J.Temperance]

10. Thank you, I've had a difficult night

In several ways.

:hug:

[winga222]

7. Overall I agree

Good post. I think you're being overly cautious but, then again, that's sort of the definition of "safe", isn't it?

I think Ohio is a pretty sure Obama pick up, however. Obama means to nail it down tomorrow with sequential rallies in the three Cs - Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati.

3 more days, thank God.

[...of J.Temperance]

9. Anything OVER the 281 EC prediction is ICING on the cake

I have given in my safe prediction, well, put it this way, I figured in any attempt to steal this election, which is why I gave McCain a bunch of states, and EVEN doing that he still loses.

The way I see it he's TOTALLY FUCKED, which I'm happy about, the nasty sonofabitch.

[Jennicut]

11. I hope Shays goes down. Then we will have no more Rethugs, next up will be Joe Loserman.

[...of J.Temperance]

15. GOP will have NO representation in Congress from New England

I mean Collins, Snowe and Gregg at that point will have to question whether they can survive for much longer in New England as Republicans.

[Jennicut]

24. Collins and Snowe are very moderate and might come over to the Dem caucus

if Obama wins. That is the only way they will survive in the coming years. Collins will be reelected this year.

[...of J.Temperance]

27. Agreed, Collins will be re-elected and also

Definately Collins and Snowe will I think at least think of joining the Democratic Caucus.

I believe that Senator Olympia Snowe is ONLY a Republican because her husband has been some bigwig in the Maine Republican party....I think Snowe is actually a Democrat, judging by the majority of her voting record.

Senator Judd Gregg, I don't know as much about him, except his Dad was Governor of New Hampshire, so he could be a Republican because his Dad was.

You know in the same way that Senator Lincoln Chaffee was only a Republican because his Dad was, Lincoln Chaffee was 99% a Democrat, his voting record was 99% Democratic.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

12. I think as a possible worst case scenario

that your projection is quite realistic. The lack of responses may stem from the fear that the race is potentially that close and therefore that much more susceptible to being stolen.

Your post is valuable. Keep your chin up. We're almost there. :toast:

[...of J.Temperance]

13. I don't know how I'm going to make it to Tuesday, I wish it were Wednesday already

Maybe I should pop a few sleeping pills and then sleep until Tuesday and wake up Tuesday morning....this could be an option to relieve the stress of the ENTIRE thing.

Yes I'd prefer to be realistic in my prediction, as I said anything past 281 is icing on the cake, I genuinely don't think it's going to be nearly 400 EC though, if I did I think I'd better letting myself in for disappointment.

281 EC sounds good, anything past that is a great bonus, but 281 EC means we WIN!

:toast:

On Edit: Dammit my typing skills suck tonight

[HCE SuiGeneris]

17. My sleeping patterns are shot to hell...

not falling asleep until 4 AM, or, waking up at 2 AM and never going back to sleep. I feel your angst, J.

Peace.

[...of J.Temperance]

18. And I'm loaded down with so many polls, I took two days to get a grip on

Some sort of average across-the-board poll.

Peace to you as well....is it Wednesday yet? ;)

[NC_Nurse]

14. I like realism. Thanks for your post.

I also like that you think Liddy will go down. She sucks. :-)

[...of J.Temperance]

16. Liddy Dole is now officially demented

Her "Kay Hagen is Godless" ad's show that she's lost the plot totally.

She does suck, mind you she is married to nasty, grumpy Bob Dole, so what should we expect.

I feel good about Hagen :)

[NC_Nurse]

19. Me too.

Nice work. :hug:

[...of J.Temperance]

20. Cool

:hug:

[Phoonzang]

21. You think McCain will win New Mexico? nt

[...of J.Temperance]

25. If you read in my OP I said that this is my SAFE prediction

And with that, I've countered in the fact of ANY attempt by the McCain/Palin campaign to steal a variety of states.

So I've given McCain a bunch of states, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, Ohio etc.

The ONLY way McCain can steal this thing is IF he steals Pennsylvania....that's the only way in my analysis that McCain can steal this election....by stealing Pennsylvania.

Which I think that Obama/Biden will win Pennsylvania, thus I really don't think the GOP can steal this election this time.

W stole the election from Vice-President Al Gore by stealing Florida....ONE state is all W needed to steal.

McCain is going to have to steal between 5 and 6 states, and I can't realistically see how he can do that, when he's not leading in any of those state polls and get away with it.


On Edit: Dammit spelling error

[Tyler126]

22. State-By-State Prediction

Interesting analysis. We have created a tool for the politically engaged individuals, like yourself, to submit a state-by-state prediction on the election.

After submitting your prediction, it shows an aggregate prediction chart of the most popular guesses for each state.

The site can be found here: http://www.blables.com/us_election_prediction/

Feel free to share with friends and family.

Enjoy and have a great election!

[...of J.Temperance]

29. Gosh fab, I'll check that out

Thanks :)

[fujiyama]

23. McCain isn't taking NM. Obama will comfortably take the state.

Otherwise, yes as a worst case scenario, CO and VA should prove to be Obama's firewall.

Hell, when playing with the calculator, if Obama picks up NV, CO, VA (and of course IA and NM), even while losing PA - he'll have EXACTLY 270. Now, that is of course THE absolute worst case scenario, but it shows how important it is run a broad based campaign.

[...of J.Temperance]

30. Nobody wants it dead at 270, it'd be HELL

Again my prediction is a SAFE prediction, I think Senator Obama will win New Mexico, but I gave it to McCain, as I've pointed out, my prediction is the minimum EC scenario and with that I countered in any attempt by McCain to steal states, which is why I've given McCain a bunch of states, and even with those Senator Obama still wins.

[cali]

26. Not bad, but I don't think McCain takes either NM or NV and I doubt he'll take OH

[...of J.Temperance]

31. I know, again my prediction is a SAFE prediction

The minimum, and Senator Obama still wins.

The way I see it, the ONLY way McCain can get this, is if he steals Pennsylvania, and I really don't think he's going to be able to do that, because along with Pennsylvania, he'd have to steal at least FIVE other states, and he's not leading in ANY of the polls in those states....I don't think they can get away with stealing this election.

[LeftishBrit]

28. Interesting. I'd like something like that...

doesn't need to be a *huge* landslide if it's a *safe* majority.

Would be nice to see all those senate seats go Dem; that would mean that Obama definitely wouldn't have to deal with all the crap that Republican congress put on Clinton. Also Dole is being so obnoxious with her 'godless' stuff that I'd like to see her trounced!

I wish I could be as confident that the Tories won't win the next British election!

[...of J.Temperance]

32. Anything over 280 and I think that puts it into

A safe majority, what nobody wants is it at 270 or 273, anything over 280 and I believe it's a safe majority.

I think we will get 60 Senate seats, but it could come down to Georgia going to a December run-off UNLESS we can kick Saxby Chambliss out to pasture on Tuesday, that race is pretty close, so it could go to a December run-off, which I think we'll win.

I'd like to think we can remove Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, but I'm not too sure we can unfortunately.

Elizabeth Dole will get trounced, I can feel Kay Hagen will win, Dole has imploded in a truly demented way, she's gone.

[...of J.Temperance]

33. I'm sorry for shouting last night, earlier in this thread

I did have a difficult night.

So sorry for shouting.

[tpi10d]

34. I agree with your scenario as a worst case scenario

With the exception of New Mexico. I feel that is firmly in Obama's camp.

As a middle ground I expect some combination of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada to go to Obama. I think it a near certainty Obama will capture at least one of these.

I also see about a 30% chance of an Obama blowout-at least as much chance as your worst case scenario. In this instance all of the above states plus at least one: Indiana, Georgia, South Dakota.