People are flipping out b/c Obama's "only" on track to win by 5-6 points and 300+ EV?

[liberalpragmatist]

Sheesh. Even if there is a small tightening in the polls, which is both (a) normal at the close of most elections and (b) not obviously true at this point, Obama still...

Leads by about 6 in most polling aggregates and appears safely ahead in the Electoral College. Yes, we're not getting fantastic polling news out of Missouri, Indiana or Florida, but we're likely to still win Florida and even if we lose SEVERAL current swing states (i.e. NC, MO, IN, FL, OH) we STILL will likely win.

No, I'm not calling for complacency. But seriously, calm the fuck down people.

If the election had been held last week, maybe Obama would have romped home with 378 electoral votes and an 7-8 point popular vote victory. If the current polling is correct (and there are still two more days), he'll win with "only" 338-353 electoral votes and a 5-6 point win in the popular vote (which would translate to an 8-9 million popular vote lead).

I'll take it.

[Kdillard]

1. I will take anything that has me saying the words President Obama

[Dawgs]

13. I don't think anyone could say it better. A win is a win.

:hi:

[azmouse]

2. Yes we can!

[billyoc]

3. Talk Me Downerism.

Liberal handwringing professional victims.

[secondwind]

4. YES WE FUCKING CAN!!! Thanks....!!

[book_worm]

5. At this point there are lots of nervous nellies.

[Mike 03]

6. I know we'll win. But there are some states I'd like to turn blue in the process.

So that there's no confusion over whether he has a mandate or not.

FL
OH
CO

Oh, and AZ

[Lumpsum]

7. People don't just want a victory.

They want a huge motherfucking landslide victory.

And I can't blame them. I do too.

[Bicoastal]

11. And yet, when we merely have a victory that's merely BIG, I doubt we'll be complaining.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Of course not. But I want to slam 'em to the wall.

I want to Mondale 'em!

[Mike 03]

8. Dupe, sorry

[Mz Pip]

9. It's that

margin of error shit that makes me cringe. I know it's illogical but I won't calm down until this is over.

[liberalpragmatist]

15. Here's a useful primer on margin of error

People (and most pundits) wrongly assume that margin of error means you can add or subtract the margin of error to each candidate's number and it'll still be valid. For example, if Candidate A polls at 48%, and Candidate B polls at 45%, and the margin of error is +/-3, even pundits will write that that could mean the actual result is that anywhere from a 51-42 lead for Candidate A or a 48-45 lead for Candidate B.

That is completely incorrect. Completely.

Margin of error simply discusses the error rate for the sample. Rather then get bogged down in the technical details of what "margin of error" means, check out this useful graph.



The numbers represent the probability that the candidate being polled ahead is actually ahead. So if the margin of error is +/- 3 and Obama is polling 3 points ahead of McCain, that means that according to that poll, there is an 84% chance that Obama is actually ahead.

[Bicoastal]

10. If the election had been last week, the results would be exactly the same, probably...

...what we're seeing is the undecideds FINALLY making up their mind, which had to happen at some point and usually does in the last week. But McCain's numbers would have to improve by a WHOLE lot more than this to have a realistic chance of winning.

You'd think a certain big victory would be enough--some are sad because it's not a landslide blowout explosion for the ages. I never though it would be, frankly.

[sharp_stick]

12. As long as he reaches 270

I'll be happy. I've got to get up and drive early on Wednesday so the earlier this can be done and I can be in bed the better though. Let's help him win VA, NC and OH then I can be in bed early.

[ProSense]

16. He will get to 270. Still, if the Republicans

pull any crap, I hope they are prosecuted.

[AZBlue]

17. The bigger the lead, the harder to steal. Keep working until the polls close on Tuesday!