grantcart
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Nov-02-08 06:28 PM
Original message |
Georgia's Early voting -- Three times 2004 2 million have voted 35% AA |
|
Based on standard support percentages by demographic group it would mean that Senator Obama will need only to get a ridiculously low 27% of the White vote to take Georgia. Georgia could be the biggest surprise on 11/4.
The incredible turnout in Georgia has continued and the percentage of AA voting has maintained a steady 35%.
Here are the numbers:
2004 Total Votes 3,317,336 Early Voting 20.2%
2008 Early voting total 1,994,990 (60% of the total for 2004)
Race White 60.2% Black 35.1% Other/Unk 2.2%
Sex Men 40.4% Women 56.2% Unk 0.9% Ballot
Absentee 11.1% In-person 88.9
|
Zynx
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Nov-02-08 06:31 PM
Response to Original message |
1. I calculated he can do it with just 25% of the White vote assuming he gets 95% of the Black vote. |
|
I don't think that's unreasonable.
|
grantcart
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Nov-02-08 06:42 PM
Response to Reply #1 |
2. I agree but I also think that the AA % cannot hold on election day - |
|
so many have already voted that its a diminished group to get to the polls on Tuesday.
|
Zynx
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Nov-02-08 07:06 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
3. Fair enough. However, only about 2/3 of the Fulton and De Kalb 2004 vote is in |
|
so far and those are the heavily black counties. It may drop to 33% of the total vote on Tuesday, but it won't drop tremendously. Even with 25% of the White vote, 65% of the Hispanic and Asian vote, and the Black vote only being 33% of the total, I still put Obama at 49.7%. He would win.
|
cliffordu
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Nov-02-08 07:07 PM
Response to Original message |
4. I posted the pony thing. You haven't helped at all. So I won't kick this..... |
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Thu May 02nd 2024, 04:37 PM
Response to Original message |