How worried should we be about the 2010 census?

[ccharles000]

Projections
Projections for changes in representation in the House of Representatives based on current growth rate from the Census Bureau's population estimates from 2006 to 2007 are as follows: <6>

Probable Gainers

State Seats Gained New Count
Texas 4 36
Arizona 2 10
Florida 2 27
Georgia 1 14
Nevada 1 4
North Carolina 1 14
Oregon 1 6
South Carolina 1 7
Utah 1 4

Probable Losers

State Seats Lost New Count
New York 2 27
Ohio 2 16
California 1 52
Illinois 1 18
Louisiana 1 6
Massachusetts 1 9
Michigan 1 14
Minnesota 1 7
Missouri 1 8
New Jersey 1 12
Pennsylvania 1 18
Iowa 1 4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Census

As you can see most of the states gaining are red. So how worried should we be about red states gaining seats and blue states losing them.

[apocalypsehow]

1. We shouldn't. Demographics are irrefutably on the Democratic Party's side, period. n/t.

[ccharles000]

12. oh

good point

[On the Road]

2. On the List of Worries and Cares

the 2010 census is way down at the bottom.

[Hippo_Tron]

3. It's more about whether or not we control the state legislatures than the aggregate flow of seats

With the state legislatures we get to draw the congressional districts to our advantage. Right now we're playing on a map drawn by Republican legislatures and further aggravated by mid-census redistricting in Texas and Georgia by Republicans.

[BzaDem]

4. It is also about the electoral college. Redistricting doesn't affect that at all

(except for Maine and Nebraska).

[rvablue]

10. Redistricting can affect the House of Representatives, however. n/t

[CK_John]

19. It changes the number of electors per state. n/t

[bluestateguy]

5. It means Obama should run a full court press for Texas in 2012

He can do it, but not if he half-asses it.

[lurky]

6. Didn't the R's rig the census system to favor red areas?

And undercount minorities, immigrants, city-dwellers? I remember a big stink about that in 2000 when they were in charge of congress. Are these projections based on their shady calculations and the Bush admin's likely cooking of the books?

Even if I am wrong, this movement of people from blue to red states is a big part of the reason we were able to win NC, Virginia, Florida, and Nevada, and why we will be winning Texas before too long.

[TreasonousBastard]

7. Actually, they claimed the statistical count...

in the cities was rigging the numbers and tried to stop that.

I think they were full of shit, but they made a case and a big stink about it.

[napi21]

8. It COULD be a good thing for Dems! Most of the increases in population

in those states are people from the BLUE STATES! THAT just might be enough of an influence to turn some of those states blue, or at least purple!

[DemBones DemBones]

16. Republicans seem to migrate from blue to red states more

than Democrats do.

[BlooInBloo]

9. Um, won't the bulk of the growth be among hispanic folks? Isn't that good?

I don't get it.

Are you just being concerned simply for the sake of being concerned?

[boppers]

11. More people = more urbanites.

More blue.

It's not a bad thing that red-ish states are becoming more purple.

[No Elephants]

13. IMO, more productive questions would be: What can we do to ensure

an honest census? For instance, the Mayor of Boston challenged the most recent census because it did not take into account people who live in group housing, like students, nursing home residents, etc.

Another more productive question, IMO: What can we do to ensure honest re-districting?

And a third question: What can we do to ensure honest elections?

If those questions get good answers and action, the census will take care of itself. If Republicans win honestly, they win. America is not a one view nation. But I am sick to death of gaming the system with funny censuses, funny re-districting and stolen elections. Just look at 2008. Seems as though all the recounts end up helping Dems. That is way too much of a coincidence for me.

[Zynx]

14. What is happening is that a lot of these "red" states are moderating politically.

North Carolina, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona are the prime examples. If we make a big effort in Texas, we can do some good things.

[Hosnon]

15. This is exactly why belittling the South is just plain dumb.

We need to gain control of as many state legislatures as possible, and that requires actually connecting with the voters in the South. (I know, crazy idea, right?)

[ShortnFiery]

17. We need to get them to listen to "community radio" of a liberal flavor.

:thumbsup: The people can be easily duped (even highly intelligent folks) if they are not provided adequate information and education. :-)

[racaulk]

18. I would be more worried about how this affects the makeup of the House.

This will have a negligible effect on Obama's chances at reelection in 2012. At most, only a net handful of seats would move to traditionally "red" states, and Obama won this election by almost 200 electoral votes. Also, Obama just proved that the GOP cannot count on traditionally "red" states (such as Virginia, Indiana, and Nebraska's 2nd district) to support them. If Obama wins the exact same states in 2012, he'll be safe regardless of how the census shakes out.

I'd be more worried about how this would affect the house. We are only a few seats away from a filibuster-proof majority in that chamber, so it's important that we keep as many seats there blue as possible. If my memory serves me, it is the state legislatures that are responsible for redrawing the districts after a census. I would imagine that where one party has control of both branches, that party will redraw the lines to their party's advantage. It may be more helpful to look at which party has the majority in the assemblies of the states you listed in your OP.

[Perky]

20. Actually, while the topline math seem to favor the GOP

If you look inside the nubers. The growth is increasingly suburban,middle class and hispanic. That is OBama's sweet spot.

Philly Collar countires, I-4 Corridor. Northern Virginia, Research Triangle. All work to our benefit, Just more electoral votes to play with,

[ccharles000]

22. oh

[blue_onyx]

21. I'm not worried about the presidential race

At least some of the growth is coming from those blue states that are losing populations. One would assume having blue state people moving to red states might make those states purplish. I'm a little worried about my state losing another electoral vote. I think Michigan is on the borderline because sometimes I've heard we'll lose a vote and sometimes I've heard we won't this time around. I'm even more worried about winning back our state Senate since they control redistricting.

[VADem11]

23. I'm not too worried

Much of the growth is due to a growing Hispanic population which could help us. I think Arizona could have gone for Obama had it not been McCai's home state. I've also seen speculation that Texas could eventually become a swing state as a result of the growth in the Hispanic population as well. We won Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Oregon and we came surprisingly close in Georgia so we could be competitive in the states that gain seats. Ultimately, everything will hinge on how Obama does in office.