Did Obama actually win by 20 million votes? (TIA) - x

[tiptoe]

Did Obama actually win by 20 Million Votes?
A Conversation about the 2008 Election    — by TruthIsAll

...
Check out the 2008 Final National Exit Poll (Final NEP) — it confirmed the Vote Count:

Vote for President in 2004:    (4,195 Respondents)

 

 

   

 

 

 

Obama

 

McCain

 

'Other'

John Kerry

 

37%

(

Returning Kerry voters

=

48.5m

)

89%

( =

43.16m)

 

9%

( =

4.36m)

 

2%

( =

0.97m)

George W. Bush

 

46%

(

Returning Bush voters

=

60.3m

)

17%

( =

10.25m)

 

82%

( =

49.44m)

 

1%

( =

0.60m)

Someone else

 

4%

(

Returning 'Other' voters

=

5.2m

)

66%

( =

3.46m)

 

24%

( =

1.26m)

 

10%

( =

0.52m)

Did Not Vote

 

13%

(

'New' voters

=

17.0m

)

71%

( =

12.10m)

 

27%

( =

4.60m)

 

2%

( =

0.34m)

 

 

100%

 

 

 

 

131.1m

 

 

68.97m

 

 

 

59.66m

 

 

 

2.44m 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

52.62%

 

 

 

45.52%

 

 

 

1.86%

How could 46% of 131.1m (60.3m) have been returning Bush voters?

He had 62.0m votes in 2004. About 59m were alive in 2008. Assuming 95% turned out in 2008, only 56m voted. The NEP is off by 4.0 million Bush voters.

And just 37% (48.5m) were Kerry voters?

How could returning Bush-voters outnumber Kerry-voters by 11.8 million? Bush’s 2004 Vote Margin was only 3.0m.

How could 4% of the 2008 electorate (5.2m) consist of third-party 2004 voters?

There were only 1.2m in 2004. The NEP is off by 4.0 million third-party voters.

... it’s obvious that the returning-2004-Voter Mix in the Final NEP is implausible. How could that be?

Here’s how. There are three possibilities:
...

Check out these Final 2008 NEP Scenarios based on a plausible returning-voter mix ...

...the evidence strongly suggests that Obama won by 17–23m votes not by the recorded 9m....

full article:   Did Obama actually win by 20 Million Votes?

[judasdisney]

1. Not a surprise. K & R

[tiptoe]

4. The size of the "Uncounted Vote" could be interesting...

given turnout expectations in the 140-148m range.

"Uncounted" vote total won't be known until Census Bureau completes its "Votes Cast" in 2008 assessment (0.30% MoE). The difference between the latter and the "official" recorded vote is the "uncounted" total.

[Pab Sungenis]

2. Your methodology is faulty

as has been pointed out here numerous times. You were wrong in 2004 and just don't want to admit it. Knock it off before you embarrass yourself more.

[tiptoe]

3. Same '04 methodology projected exactly 365EV for Obama in 2008. The "fault" in '04? Rigged election.

"Any model which correctly calculates the True vote is doomed to fail in a rigged election."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7159446

An excellent breakdown of election night 2004 issues is presented above (see "Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV"). Assess the integrity of the election, before you condemn any analyst for "getting it wrong". Consider, too, election models whose "reliability ratings" fail to even consider election fraud as a factor in their analyses. Absurd; such models could be esteeming the "successful" predictors of fraudulent election outcomes. See also John Zogby's Final prediction on Election 2004 that was never presented by PollingReport.com.

The success of Obama's campaign -- new registrations and GOTV effort (a record electorate, including 2 million newly-registered Democrats and 344,000 de-registered Republicans just in 28 states that track such data) -- overwhelmed both the DLC Clinton machine and Rove's "Math". And the magnitude of the uncounted vote in 2008 is still to be learned.

[tiptoe]

5. kick! nt