Great write-up on why to NOT believe this polling.....

[ShaneGR]

Before I get to that, I'd also like to point out that John Kerry was nowhere to be found 50 days before the Iowa Caucus.

As for the polling, check out Ruy's take (He's a poll wonk) over at Emerging Democratic Majority.

www.emergingdemocraticmajority.com

(snip)
September 13, 2004

Why the Race Is Closer Than People Think
Is Bush ahead by a little or a lot? Is it close to a tie ball game or has Bush surged to a commanding lead?

The conventional wisdom inclines to the latter not the former. The reason has a great deal to do with two persistent problems with contemporary polls that--at least at this point in time--tend to considerably inflate Bush's apparent lead. But once you dissect the available data with these problems in mind, a truer picture of the race comes into focus which suggests that the race continues to be very close.

The two problems are: (1) samples that have an unrealistic number of Republican identifiers and hence tend to favor Bush; and (2) the widespread and highly questionable practice of using likely voters (LVs) instead of registered voters (RVs) to measure voter sentiment this far before the election.

First, the issue of partisan distribution in samples. Lately, and very suddenly, many polls have been turning up more Republican identifiers than Democratic identifiers in their samples--in some cases, many more (as high as a 9-10 point Republican advantage).

[grace0418]

1. This is great, thanks.

I was just discussing this with my family. I'm trying to keep them from getting discouraged.

[Romulus]

2. this is great

thanks for posting.

I am always suspicious of polls, as should anyone who takes Statistics 101.

[maverick hombre]

3. How about a 527 to "Get the Truth Out About LIES in the Media"?

I don't know how hard that would be to get going, but I bet there is enough people in this forum who would donate to a 527 to buy air time and run some "public service" TRUTH ads about the media bias. That is if somebody with the time and energy organized it. I know I would donate something. You wouldn't even be "bashing" anyone other than the damn "entities" that deserve it most.

[ShaneGR]

4. That's actually quite a good idea

There are probably tons of people who'd be more than willing to do that.

[goclark]

5. sure will

[giant_robot]

6. Great site - bookmarked

Thanks, sgr2.

[DeepModem Mom]

7. "Emerging Democratic Majority" gives me hope at times...

when hope is gone.