AP: Turnout Light in NY House Seat's Special Election

[flpoljunkie]

Turnout light in NY House seat's special election

By VALERIE BAUMAN
The Associated Press
Tuesday, March 31, 2009; 1:48 PM

ALBANY, N.Y. -- A special election Tuesday in the state's 20th Congressional District started with a sharply criticized, secretive appointment to the U.S. Senate and some believe it will end as a referendum on President Barack Obama and his economic policies.

Republican Jim Tedisco and Democrat Scott Murphy fought a bitter and expensive race on a compressed schedule to replace Kirsten Gillibrand, who was appointed by Gov. David Paterson in January to succeed Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Senate.

The election drew an unusual level of national attention, and both candidates had financial support from their national parties and political action committees _ mostly spent on increasingly negative television ads.

Yet polling places and local election boards reported light turnout through early afternoon. In Dutchess County _ at the southern end of the district near New York City _ an election commissioner said low turnout was expected in the off-cycle contest, even though voters were "bombarded" with campaign ads.

Republicans hoped a win would knock Obama off balance and put them back on the political map in the Northeast after two dismal cycles that saw them go from nine New York representatives before the 2006 elections to three after the 2008 vote. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele has identified the race as one of the party's top priorities for this year.

Democrats looked for the reassurance of a win in a recently Republican district less than 100 days after Obama took office and in the wake of his $787 billion stimulus package, which was criticized for a loophole allowing bonuses for executives of the bailed-out American International Group Inc. insurance company.

more...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/31/AR2009033101549.html

[flpoljunkie]

1. Polls close at 9PM ET.

[UrbScotty]

2. Wanna do something about it?

http://www.dccc.org/page/contact/splash/ny-20

[Bleacher Creature]

3. Good sign for Murphy.

Normally, low turnout hurts our side. Here, however, the media wants so badly to turn the election into a referendum on Obama that the only way such story would come out is if someone wants to start laying the groundwork for a Tedisco loss. No way in hell the AP would put out a story that undermines the "it's all Obama's fault" storyline.

[Thrill]

4. Doesn't sound like low turnout would be good for the Democrat if this is a

Republican District.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. No one knows.

If turnout is light, it could mean Republicans are staying home and it's only the Democratic voters (those who make up a smaller number of the district) that are voting.

[redqueen]

9. I sure hope you're right.

We'll find out soon enough.

[high density]

5. Referendum on Obama?

In a Republican district? Umm. ok. :freak: :eyes:

[hfojvt]

7. negative ads probably reduce turnout

Candidate X - "Candidate Y sucks"
Candidate Y - "Candidate X sucks"
average voter - "Why bother, they both suck."

[ErinBerin84]

8. GOP (and Politico) still trying to set low expectations

Though I really don't know what any of this means.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0309/Tedisco_in_trouble.html

Tedisco in trouble?

There’s a lot of anecdotal evidence emerging from my reporting that many registered Republicans are either sitting this election out, or even voting for Democrat Scott Murphy.

At one Saratoga Springs precinct, one longtime Tedisco volunteer who spent weeks phone-banking for the campaign reported getting hung up on by a significant number (“dozens”) of targeted Republican voters.

The volunteer said that the phone-bankers were told to be “extra nice” so Republicans would actually listen to Tedisco’s message.

In dozens of interviews with voters and poll workers, nearly everyone expressed disgust at the negative tone of the campaign – with most placing the blame on Tedisco.

There was also a lot of anger towards “outside groups” making the race negative -- though both parties spent plenty of money on negative attacks, Tedisco took the brunt of criticism.

The latest Siena poll bears this out: Only 14 percent of the voters who have seen Tedisco’s ads said they were more likely to vote for him, while 37 percent said it made them less likely to vote for him. By contrast, 30 percent of voters said Murphy’s ads made them less likely to vote for him, while 23 percent said it made them more likely.

The poll also showed Tedisco with surprisingly weak support (64 percent) among Republicans, also adding some credence to the anecdotes.

“If Jim had just run an ad campaign that just said I’m Jim Tedisco, you know me, he might have won. Once the outside groups came in, we saw a seismic shift in his level of support,” said one Democrat tracking voter sentiment in the district.

Another GOP operative in the district speculated that some Republicans might privately be sitting out the race because they want Tedisco to remain in his leadership role in the state Assembly, but think Murphy is a better fit ("in the Kirsten Gillibrand mold") as their congressman.

[flpoljunkie]

10. Evidently Robert Gibbs is, as well. From an email he sent out...

Republicans have a significant voter registration advantage – 71,000 more voters are registered Republicans than are registered Democrats

Kirsten Gillibrand was the first Democrat to hold NY-20 in 28 years when she upset then-Representative John Sweeny in 2006. Sweeny faced significant ethical issues

Even though Obama won the district in 2008, it had previously been solidly Republican. President Bush won NY-20 in both 2000 and 2004. In fact, NY-20 was one of only six districts in New York State voting for President Bush in 2000, and one of only nine supporting him in 2004

http://thepage.time.com/gibbs-e-mail-on-ny-20/

[Igel]

11. link to results

http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/article/20090331/NEWS12/90330029

[dalaigh lllama]

12. The Dem won by 65 votes out of @ 150,000 cast?

:wow:

[Marsala]

13. Not counting absentee ballots, of course

The race is still very undecided. Still,

:wow: at the results, indeed.