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Never mind biased polls, what is your gut telling you?

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Darth_Kitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:17 PM
Original message
Never mind biased polls, what is your gut telling you?
What are you hearing from people? Are people pumped up and ready to turf Bush out of office? What is your gut feeling?

There are so many polls out there, and I am staying away from posts that have them. ;) Too confusing, annoying, or destructive. :D
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mark414 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:18 PM
Response to Original message
1. Kerry wins
that's what my GUT tells me
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movonne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:31 PM
Response to Reply #1
21. My gut feeling tells me that Kerry wins...but I worry about all the
shenanigans they all pulling with the election (intimidation, faulty voting machines, the media....
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LisaLynne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:19 PM
Response to Original message
2. Kerry wins.
We'll have to put up with some crying from certain Republicans, but in the end, there won't be much they can do about it.
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cheshire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:33 PM
Response to Reply #2
25. If I hear one crying Pub I am going to take video while I LMAO.
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Goldmund Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:20 PM
Response to Original message
3. Kerry wins NYC.
As far as the rest of the country, my gut doesn't say much.
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agincourt Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
4. Kerry gets 1 mil more popular votes,
but gets screwed by the electoral college through vote fraud.
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
5. It will not be a landslide, but Kerry will win with a comfortable margin.
I think that the media is covering up for shrub, but the young voters and the old voters are seeing through this.
They just are not being asked what they think. I also know a lot of people that refuse to talk to pollsters, they treat them like tele-marketers.
My hope is that it will be called by 11:00 Eastern.
It would be the best night of the year if shrub had to give his concession speech on the nightly news.

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da_chimperor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
6. Kerry wins
That's for certain. My gut is also telling me to figure out a way to stop from going insane due to the sheer amount of joy I will feel as well. Any ideas?
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cheshire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:34 PM
Response to Reply #6
26. read my post above.
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da_chimperor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:55 PM
Response to Reply #26
32. Heh, I think i'll do that!
The best excuse i've heard to buy a video camera!
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fugue Donating Member (846 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:22 PM
Response to Original message
7. Bush remains president by some illegal means
Martial law, canceling the election, postponing it indefinitely, assassinating Kerry and Edwards after they've won. Something.

That America wants Kerry, I have no doubt. That Bush and his lot will give up power, I have very few doubts that they will not.

I'd love to be wrong.
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unblock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:23 PM
Response to Original message
8. bush winning just plain MAKES NO SENSE!
alas, the critical votes are not in my state, but i no of NO ONE who is planning to vote for shrub that didn't also vote for shrub last time. and i know PLENTY of long-time republicans who will be voting for a democrat for their first time ever.

bush really has won over NO ONE that wasn't already on his side, and has pissed off many. wall street, in particular, is pissed about the deficit being record size, and, amazingly, treated as if it were a non-issue. this is not the kind of republican wall street likes.
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carpetbagger Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:23 PM
Response to Original message
9. Close race.
People are pumped up and ready to turf Bush, but they only make up about 35% of the population.

I can speak of a few states where I lived, and where I know people. In these states (Texas, WV, MD), there's not been much change. I think that in the end it comes down to how many new and minority voters come to the polls.

The polls, both the race-tied and the Bush-landslide polls, say the same thing. If the voting makeup is 39%D, 35%R like it was in 2000, the race is tied.
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oasis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:24 PM
Response to Original message
10. There's no way Chimpy has as large of a following as the media indicates.
If you think Kerry should be double digits ahead, I say follow that instinct.
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blondeatlast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:24 PM
Response to Original message
11. Kerry win, Dems just barely take the Senate. nt
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whistle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:25 PM
Response to Original message
12. Kerry/Edwards will win!
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DemBones DemBones Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:25 PM
Response to Original message
13. Kerry gets the most votes, popular and electoral.

The Bush* junta may steal it, anyway, but I don't think we'll sit here in a daze if it happens again.

Bush*'s base will be stunned by the loss.
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Boredtodeath Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:25 PM
Response to Original message
14. Lousy Kerry campaign + electronic voting = Kerry loss
It's Al Gore 2000 all over again with 30% electronic voting machines nationwide.

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cheshire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:32 PM
Response to Reply #14
23. Are you bored because you don't belong or your not doing anything to
help the Dems. Is you life like warm shit? You know feels good but stinks so you just sit in it.
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Mr_Spock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 10:58 PM
Response to Reply #23
83. LOL - you tell those pessimistic fools what's up!
lol
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Lovecrafty Donating Member (367 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:26 PM
Response to Original message
15. Kerry wins.
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Arioch Donating Member (81 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:27 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. Kerry wins
by a surprising margin...
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vi5 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:27 PM
Response to Original message
16. My gut tells me that Kerry will fall victim to what made him nominee...
comfort. Just as there were so many different choices during the primaries, Kerry walked away with it because while people flirted with more of a firebrand, anti-war approach like Dean, or the political outsider with appeal like Clark, or the all American yet inexperienced guy like Edwards, when the zero hour came and they walked into the voting booth, they went with Kerry because he was a known commodity and he was comfortable, despite people having many reservations about him.

I fear the same thing will happen this year. People will dislike Bush, even hate him or fear what he will bring to the country. But they will fear the unknown or change more. So when they go into the voting booth they will end up going with the known commodity: Bush.

This same thing would have happened with anyone as our candidate, I fear. It won't be a Bush blow out but I think he will win somewhat comfortably.

It pains me to say this and I hope beyond hope that I'm proven completely wrong. But this is my gut.
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Dogmudgeon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:28 PM
Response to Original message
18. "Buy More Prilosec"
I don't get out much, but my mother, who works for the state, says that for every person registering Republican through her workplace, TEN are registering Democratic. She kept count a few times, and it really was better than 10:1.

But that's just one single area.

--bkl
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cheshire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:29 PM
Response to Original message
19. KERRY kick GW to the curb and he's swept up by street sweeper.
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ElsewheresDaughter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:31 PM
Response to Original message
20. i know people who haven't vote in 30 years that have registered to vote...
Edited on Sun Sep-19-04 06:32 PM by ElsewheresDaughter
for Kerry!...they are scared shitless over bush* ...and will vote AGAINST him.......that says alot!
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blondeatlast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:30 PM
Response to Reply #20
48. There's an awful lot of older, previously unregistered voters, who
are insanely pissed at Bunny, or they wouldn't bother to register.
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BootinUp Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:31 PM
Response to Original message
22. We lost the initiative, still time to get it back
I think we are down a couple points probably. But Bush is still very weak and with the debates still to go we can win.
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Booster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:32 PM
Response to Original message
24. If it's a clean election, Kerry wins, hands down.
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LittleClarkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:35 PM
Response to Original message
27. Kerry wins
Edited on Sun Sep-19-04 06:35 PM by LittleClarkie
We get the Gore votes, plus newly registered voters, plus disgruntled Republicans, plus about half of Nader's people, plus part of the apathy vote that didn't vote last time.

Too many votes to ratfuck them all. Without fraud it would be a landslide. With fraud, it will still be enough to win.

Alleluia. Amen.
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w4rma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:35 PM
Response to Original message
28. My gut feeling is the same as it was just before the 2002 election.
Edited on Sun Sep-19-04 06:36 PM by w4rma
It's also the same gut feeling I had the two weeks before the Iowa primary when big media came down on Gov. Dean.

Big media acted the same way in both of those cases as they are now.

And the voting machines are still just as open to fraud as they were in 2002.
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vademocrat Donating Member (962 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:36 PM
Response to Original message
29. Kerry Wins
And may even carry VA - lots more Kerry bumper stickers than I would've dreamed possible. Plus MANY FEWER * signs, etc. Just saw my first two * yard signs today. Every rational, thinking person I know is planning on voting for Kerry (several were Nader supporters in 2000). The Faux news watchers at work aren't enthusiastic & may not vote.

I'm sensing a large voter turnout nationwide & a comfortable win for Kerry. I hope it doesn't spark a civil war...

I think it'd be funny if he lost the popular vote & won the electoral college! I'd love to tell the rethugs "tough luck".



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democrat in Tallahassee Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:49 PM
Response to Original message
30. my rational brain says kerry; my gut says bush (illegally)
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quaoar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:55 PM
Response to Original message
31. My gut tells me that this is 1980
And that we will not only win comfortably in the Electoral College, but we will take far more seats in Congress than anyone ever dreamed -- including defeating Tom DeLay.
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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #31
34. I like what your gut says better than what my gut says. n/t :)
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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 06:57 PM
Response to Original message
33. I live in a very Republican area, so my gut may be getting bad info.
Since the news media went into a Kerry feeding-frenzy, I have been shocked at the power of the GOP to twist people's perceptions. All that power makes me think of rigged elections.

My gut is very sick with "knowledge" that Bush will win.
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quaoar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:02 PM
Response to Reply #33
35. I'll bet I live in a more Republican area than you do
And my gut still tells me Bush is toast.
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Ladyhawk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #35
92. I hope so.
But I'm beginning to (once again) think Kerry isn't what he claims to be. Still, I'm hoping he's better than *.
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are_we_united_yet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:05 PM
Response to Original message
36. Kerry by a landslide
I got three rounds with somebody riding on it.
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POAS Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:06 PM
Response to Original message
37. Grassroots in Ohio
is motivated for Kerry. Unprecedented new voter registrations and volunteers for the campaign coming out of the woodwork.

If we keep up the hard work at the local level to get out the vote for Kerry he wins. Unless the GOP steals it again.
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RevCheesehead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:06 PM
Response to Original message
38. Landslide: Kerry n/t
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shivaji Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
39. My heart says Kerry wins, my brain says Bush wins....go figure
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PROGRESSIVE1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
40. Yard signs tell me it's split 50/50 and talk on the street tells me that..
Kerry has this election locked up for a DECISIVE VICTORY IN NOVEMBER.
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NNadir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:27 PM
Response to Reply #40
47. We, and history, will trash Bush. This will go down as the worst
"administration" in American history, and people will marvel at how we allowed it to happen in the first place.

People will note that the election of Kerry was not unaminous and shake their heads wondering how anyone could have voted for Bush. Now for the fun part: You will not be able to find, in ten years, a single person who will admit to having voted for Bush.

All these thoughts aside, we are in for a very, very hard time in this country, and we may have many years of serious decline before we can recover. But there is the happy thought that Kerry will rise, like Lincoln or FDR, to be remembered for one of the Great Presidents, one who brought it around from the edge of the abyss.
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Doosh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:07 PM
Response to Original message
41. my gut tells me the tide has turned, Kerry will win this
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:08 PM
Response to Original message
42. My gut tells me that 'America' ain't buying bush* shit.
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:13 PM
Response to Original message
43. Kerry/Edwards
Bush is toast.
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DixieDem Donating Member (239 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:16 PM
Response to Original message
44. Oh my god! YES!!!

Today, I hear over and over again how sorry former Bush voters are about their 2000 vote for him. I wish I could count how many times I've heard former Bush voters say, "This time I'll vote for Kerry/Edwards".

If this is the consenses in MY neck of the woods (I live in the South)... I can assure you that the current polls are totally and completely BOGUS!
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Zero Division Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:25 PM
Response to Original message
45. Anecdotal evidence from Iowa Primaries says Kerry's in a strong position
I know that's a ways back, but I doubt things have changed that much.
The turnout was huge and many Republicans (not disrupters) showed up to register and support Democratic candidates.

These polls with Bush leading by double digits and samples that have far more registered Repubs over Dems have to be wrong from all of the evidence I've seen or heard.

I also worked as a sales rep for a few weeks back in August. I never brought up politics, but many, many people complained about it and blamed Bush. I even had one guy admit to his regret for voting for Bush in the last election and tell me to vote for Kerry.
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progressivebydesign Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:26 PM
Response to Original message
46. Kerry wins.. here's why.
It will be too far apart to steal.. and I think the Bushistas know that if they try to fuck with this election, the people will take to the streets, as they do in Europe.

My gut feeling is Kerry, and here's why. I live in a conservative, affluent area of Washington State. It's been a surprise to so many here how many Kerry stickers and people there are around here now.. it was unheard of even a year ago. The Kerry support outnumbers the Bush support.. 2 to 1, in an area considered moderate republican. Also, in our own areas, which usually go republican, the recent primary showed a HUGE amount of Democratic voters vs. Republican voters, the difference was shocking! Also, the Democratic absentee ballots were 2 to 1 against the republican numbers, also.. very unprecedented, usually absentees go conservative. The new voter turnout for just the primary was wonderful!

Also, anecdotally: I am now sporting a WOMEN FOR KERRY dogtag. It's the fab vintage one... I can't tel you how many times women have commented on that! All types of people, that I would never have pegged as Kerry supporters.. they ALL want to know where to get one! And.. I remind each one to vote. The youngest women all tell me that they can't wait for vote for the first time (not counted as likely voters in the polls). I tell them I'm 'changing the world, one necklace at a time'. It gets a good laugh, anway.

Oh.. and on another level, I had a wonderful dream about Kerry months and months ago, and he was assuring, calm, and presidential. I woke up feeling that he would be a wonderful president, and there was a wonderful feeling of calm about it. I'm never wrong on those dreams! never (I'm one of those people who has premonition dreams).
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tigereye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:35 PM
Response to Reply #46
50. nice
thanks.
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Just Me Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:10 PM
Response to Reply #46
69. I would charactize yours as a sincere "fair and balanced" report,...
,...of reality!!!

Awesome!!! :bounce:
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WINEWOMAN7 Donating Member (100 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:34 PM
Response to Original message
49. My gut and heart says Kerry
I don't believe the polls when I see a half million people march in protest against Bush in NYC,and the enormous record breaking crowds wherever Kerry and Edwards speak. In my conservative state of Idaho I don't know one person (except my ex mother in law who is hopeless) that is voting for Bush. Everyone I know thinks Bush is an idiot and a loser and is in the process of ruining our country.

That said, I know the Bushies will try to steal the election. But I think Kerry is tough enough to stand up to them and fight by any legal means necessary. He won't roll over.

I was so-so for Kerry at first, now I am a real Kerry believer. I think he is the hope of our nation and is a true hero. He is a fighter as he's shown his whole life. If Karma is true he will cream Bush.
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DixieDem Donating Member (239 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:11 PM
Response to Reply #49
59. Hi Winewoman7!

I was born and raised in Idaho! I know what you mean about it being a conservative state! Fortunately, I think the tide is starting turn there. I moved to NC about 8 years ago and I see the same thing here... former republicans voting for the democratic nominee (BIG time). If WE see the true picture in ID and NC... ya have to wonder where the pollers are getting their information from, eh?

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WINEWOMAN7 Donating Member (100 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:24 PM
Response to Reply #59
61. Hi DixieDem
I was born and raised in Idaho also. It's been real hard to keep a balanced view here with some of the right wing nuts running for office (Helen Chenowith, Larry Craig) but we have had some real good Democrats also (Frank Church, Cecil Andrus). I am seeing a change in Idaho and I don't think Bush is going to win here in a landslide. Glad to hear you are seeing some change in North Carolina. Peace, Dian
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DixieDem Donating Member (239 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:56 PM
Response to Reply #61
62. Cecil Andrus??? You just stole my heart...

I LOVED that guy!!!! Frank Church??? Ummm... I'll keep my opinion to myself on that one.


Since moving to NC, I haven't been keeping up on local Idaho politics. I'd love to hear more on this...

When it comes to the presidential election... I DO know that most of my Idaho repub friends and family will NOT be voting for Bush this year (and most of them DID vote for him in 2000). That's good news!

Same story here in NC... NC is traditionally a repub state that is starting to show signs of trading colors.

Where in Idaho are you from? I'd love to talk more... PM me, okay?
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WINEWOMAN7 Donating Member (100 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:17 PM
Response to Reply #62
72. Cecil Andrus
DixieDem, I've met both Frank Church and Cecil Andrus. When Frank Church was running for President he came into the bank I was working at and I got to meet him and his wife. I love him, sounds like you have reservations. I also met Cecil. I was very young and was invited to a Democratic fund raiser dinner in Coeur d'Alene. He was so impressed that a couple of very young girls were there he got up and came across the room to shake our hands and tell he was happy that the young people were getting involved in politics. I've seen him several times since, he's an icon in Idaho as you probably know. I live in Boise now, lived in Burley and Coeur d'Alene. I'll PM you if I can figure out how. I'm pretty new to this. Been lurking for about 2 years but haven't posted much. Peace, Dian
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Anarcho-Socialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:36 PM
Response to Original message
51. Kerry/Edwards will win by 6-8% of the vote
Kerry will win the Electoral College despite widespread BBV fraud in favor of Bush.
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molly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:39 PM
Response to Original message
52. Kerry wins - it will be a tough nite for all of us
but we should all party hardy the next!
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adamrsilva Donating Member (636 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:48 PM
Response to Original message
53. I'm hopeful because Kerry is a strong finisher
but if someone asked me to bet I'd bet Bush. Sorry guys, he's surging in support. If Kerry crushes Bush in the debate though I will say Kerry takes it.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:49 PM
Response to Original message
54. Kerry can possibly win
Edited on Sun Sep-19-04 07:50 PM by Nicholas_J
Things are tighter but the chances are still there


AS far as polls go, today, Rasmussen has Kerry rising, Bush falling.

Thwy also have verified Zogby's statements about the media polls, stating that allthe ABC,CBS, NBC, Fox and CNN polls all have a built in bias.

Latest polls in West Virginia and Colorado have Kerry within a point of Bush
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Southsideirish Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:53 PM
Response to Original message
55. Bush peaked too soon (post RNC) he's got nowhere to go but down
down, down.

In addition, all the news out of Iraq is terrible - getting worse every day and that has to hurt him big time.
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cheshire Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:02 PM
Response to Reply #55
57. premature ejaculater that's a little boy thing isn't it.
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yardwork Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 07:55 PM
Response to Original message
56. KERRY WINS
And then the hard work begins.
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The Flaming Red Head Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:04 PM
Response to Original message
58. That Bush has been up in the polls before, but his numbers tend to go down


It’s just a bounce. His buddies in the media can only do so much with all the other bad news constantly piling up on him and his administration.
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Tangledog Donating Member (312 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:14 PM
Response to Original message
60. Kerry/Edwards wins
I get down, and I get psyched, and the psyched is stronger than the down. I'm even hoping to take back Congress.
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rndmprsn Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:58 PM
Response to Original message
63. Gut...Kerry wins in very close election
Edited on Sun Sep-19-04 09:03 PM by rndmprsn
record youth, overseas, minority turnouts combine with general bush fatigue and increasingly hopless/bad iraq situation to unseat the out of touch and mentally exhausted villiage idiot...er president.

51% kerry
48% bush
1% nader

278 kerry
260 bush

edit-stats
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phish420 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 08:59 PM
Response to Original message
64. My gut prediction
Kerry will win a close, but not as close as many had thought, election.
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Demi_Babe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:01 PM
Response to Original message
65. My gut tells me Kerry BIG win!
I have always felt this way!
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Moonbeam_Starlight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
66. Honestly?
My gut says Kerry wins. And not by a little, but a LOT.

I hope my gut is right.

I base that on:
1. all the unhappiness and general discontent about bush among "casual voters" who don't really have allegiance to any one party

2. the fact that I am hard-pressed to find a person who voted for Gore in 2000 and is now voting for bush, but I could throw a rock and hit twenty people who voted for bush in 2000 who are voting for Kerry now (not that I would want to hit them with a rock!). In other words, the GOP has been LOSING votes the last four years.

3. bush et al and their policies have just made too many people too unhappy.

4. All the new voter registrations. The increase in young people being involved in this election, unlike anything I've seen before.

5. The really BIG factor: people who have voted republican their ENTIRE lives who have told me (usually out of the corner of their mouths or whispering) that they are voting for Kerry, voting Libertarian or staying home.

When bush loses people like my father in law (who lives in Virginia and is voting Libertarian) he is in BIG trouble. My father in law is his "base."
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Just Me Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:02 PM
Response to Original message
67. Kerry by a HUGE margin,...UNLESS,...
,...the power-mongers do something historically dirty,...which concerns me because I believe them capable of so doing. After all, we really are dealing with extremist elements here.
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Bryan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:46 PM
Response to Reply #67
78. My gut tells me to take Nov. 3 off from work
...because no matter what happens, I am going to get absolutely stinking drunk.

More seriously, I'm very unsure. I think that the momentum is building in our direction, but I'm not sure if the Kerry campaign can catch the crest of the wave. Pulling back in August turned out to be a serious strategic error (I know there were good and sufficient economic reasons, but then, I wonder if they mightn't have been better off opting out of federal funding entirely), and I feel that a lot now rests on the debates, and-since the debates will be rigged tighter than the 1929 World Series-Kerry is going to have to be on fucking fire. Even before the primaries, I always thought he would make the best President of any of the candidates, but I still don't know if he's the best campaigner.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:06 PM
Response to Original message
68. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
JPJones Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:14 PM
Response to Reply #68
70. Buh-bye n/t
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Moonbeam_Starlight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #68
71. So who did you support
and work for in the Democratic primaries?

Curious.....
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Just Me Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #68
75. Perhaps, "humility" is a word for you to look up,...
,...and, failed expectations is something to talk about with your former generations.

Moreover,...how is it that you have somehow tapped an "outcome",...why do you believe yourself to be a "soothsayer", so to speak,...above all others? Are you "GOD"?
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Zero Division Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 11:14 PM
Response to Reply #68
85. Ah...the taste of sour grapes from the Primaries
Kerry sure as hell lost big time there didn't he? :eyes:

"The last four years haven't taken us down the tubes..": I sure as hell hope you're being somewhat sarcastic, if not there's no way in hell you're justified in determining who has enough sense to be a responsible voter.

Yeah, I'm sure the Democratic Party will come out winning big when the people who wish the worst outcome for our nation and the world because their own little vision of what the party should be hasn't been fully embraced gain control. :eyes:

Oh and by the way, your proud little dig on Kerry's position on a security wall in Israel isn't such grand proof of hypocrisy, at all. Kerry opposes the wall as it is, since it's being used as another land-grabbing attempt by the Likudniks, but supports a legal security wall that actually provides security and not an excuse to steal more land. That happens to be my own stance on the issue and has been before I ever heard about what Kerry had to say on the issue. Drinking the Kool-Aid out of spite can cloud one's vision.
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Chelsea Patriot Donating Member (603 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 11:53 PM
Response to Reply #68
86. "Well, Bye-bye, Sugar...And Not A Minute Too Soon!"
Rip her To Shreds!
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Enrico Donating Member (118 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:17 PM
Response to Original message
73. Honestly...
Kerry loses bigtime. Unless he kicks ass at the debates. I know its sad... but its how it feels to me.
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Bread and Circus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:18 PM
Response to Original message
74. That Kerry and other Dem Leaders better get their ass in gear.
Edited on Sun Sep-19-04 09:19 PM by familydoctor
Here's the list of people who should be on TV speaking out against Bush and the War

Kerry
Edwards
Clark
Parents of Soldiers in Iraq
Soldiers that have returned from Iraq
High ranking military folks that doubt Bush's competence on the war
anti-terrorist experts that doubt Bush's handling of the War with Terrorists.
Dean
Kucinich
Bob Graham
Gephardt
Carl Levin
Joe Biden

and other high ranking Democrat with a good Q score.

We need a chorus for the next 6 weeks all saying the same thing. That Bush failed to intercept 9/11 and that he shouldn't have cooked up the war with Iraq to satisfy the PNAC doctrine. In addition to that, he bungled the Iraq war even though he was given every means of expediency to be successful.

He also should have a private discussion with Nader to see what Nader's beef really is. Nader represents and element of the left and those he represents should have some voice. Nader dropping out and endorsing Kerry would help him with some needed votes.

Also, he should really make it clear who his Foreign Policy team will be - Holbrooke, Clark, whomever. Make em power hitters and get them on TV. People want to know how he will fight the WOT and the IW so he should show them.
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kodi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:31 PM
Response to Original message
76. KERRY, because it appears the busheviks have shot their wad
and kerry is just now strapping his chin strap tight and is going to bone bruise bush from here on out.
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lgardengate Donating Member (341 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 09:45 PM
Response to Original message
77. unless Kerry kicks but in two debates my gut says Bush
And my whole family (except one aunt and uncle) are voting Bush.This includes cousins and one friend.
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OneBlueSky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 10:39 PM
Response to Original message
79. my gut says the same thing it's been saying all year . . .
BushCo will not -- CAN not -- allow Kerry to depose them . . . they will do anything and everything needed to insure that they remain in power . . . and since they control everything -- the government, the media, the voting machines, the campaign agenda -- there's a pretty good chance they they'll succeed . . .
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 10:46 PM
Response to Original message
80. people are tellling me they think Kerry can win but...
I was at the "Willy St. Fair" all day today talking with lots of people. This is a very progressive neighborhood on the Isthmus of Madison and I saw lots of Kerry/Edwards signs and presence, but also there are lots of Green presence and even David Cobb came by the fair.
But most people definitely want Bush out, and think Kerry can win. But they don't think he has been running an effective campaign. They find him too wishy-washy. He has to clarify his position on Iraq. He hasn't really motivated the "progressive community" and think he is ignoring the base especially the African-American community. Just telling you what I heard from many people today.
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angee_is_mad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 10:50 PM
Response to Original message
81. Scared but still voting
is what I am hearing. People are worried by the numbers and ads, but still planning to vote.
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lucky777 Donating Member (298 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 10:56 PM
Response to Original message
82. Bush wins legally -- I don't like it but it's the Truth
All Bush has to do is win OH and PA, or either state with FL, and that is that.

He's definitely ahead of Kerry and will pull away.

That's my opinion. It is our own fault for picking Kerry as our candidate -- he's totally lifeless and hasn't motivated very many non-voters to register; his platform on Iraq is a big nothing, as is his view on gay marriage, as is his health care proposal -- he's so bland. He's better than Bush, but how long can you run on that?

The strategy to appeal to the middle is a losing strategy.
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Touchdown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-19-04 11:10 PM
Response to Original message
84. There will be unprecedented voter turnout- My gut.
I've been canvassing poor black and hispanic neighborhoods, and historically, most of them don't vote. Most all of them have this gleam in their eyes when I ask if I can count on a lever pulled for solid Dem, and they say an EMPHATIC "YES!"

Another indication is me. I was always a liberal, but generally uninvolved, and I'm not alone in canvassing the streets this fall. Lot's of us newbies out there.

It was my fantasy last spring that we would get 70% voter turnout...now, that just might be reachable, although realistically, I would say low 60's...which means...

Kerry in a Reagan '80 type landslide, and we take the Senate, and close ranks in the House.

Rove pulling out all the stops and Gallup whoring for them tells me that my gut is right.
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MsTryska Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 10:16 AM
Response to Original message
87. Americans ain't stupid.
Americans love freedom.

Americans don't really buy the media propaganda.


Kerry wins.
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ClassWarrior Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 10:18 AM
Response to Original message
88. We're gonna win... but there's still much work to do.
It's not whether or not we're going to win. It's the size of the win. And we NEED to win big.


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Armstead Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 10:22 AM
Response to Original message
89. Bush
Edited on Mon Sep-20-04 10:38 AM by Armstead
I have the same feeling as I did in 2002. Bush will pull it off in a messy squeaker.

Most people I know hate Bush, or at least dislike him enough not to vote for him. But I live in a very blue area, so it's difficult to say what it's like in otehr states.

It won't be because Bush will really win. It will be because Democrats will have blown it, and the media whores will have painted it in a simplistic, pro-Bush way that will convince enough people that Bush should be president.

Hopefully my gut will turn out to be wrong. There's still time to take it to Bush and get in his face, and show him for what he is. But Kerry, and everyone else who supports him needs to get our act together really fast.

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ismnotwasm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 10:24 AM
Response to Original message
90. Kerry wins
Funny, my "gut" instinct really is telling me a Kerry win. Nobody I talk to--except for a couple people, wants Bush, but a lot of folks have a very defeatist attitude, "Bush is going to win", even my husband and my daughter not to mention my best friend and some co-workers. So were is this coming from? Why the media of course. Now I live in a very liberal city, yes, but I read a lot, some odd things sometimes, like "retired military officer" (don't ask) Lots and lots of unexpected animosity against Bush, and rejection of his residency. Kerry all the way!!!!
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demokatgurrl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 10:26 AM
Response to Reply #90
91. My gut tells me no sleep Nov. 2 and not much now either n/t
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grace0418 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 03:19 PM
Response to Original message
93. Bush will try every dirty tactic in the book
but something has got to backfire on him sooner or later. It's just pure odds that something irrefutable will get uncovered, hopefully before it's too late.

As long as people don't get discouraged by the "polls," Kerry will win.
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Piperay Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 03:23 PM
Response to Original message
94. Bush wins
and the Democrats get their asses kicked but good. SORRY that is what my gut tells me, I just don't feel a win. :cry:
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cthrumatrix Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #94
95. only if they use computer voting.... if not Kerry wins...people despise *
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sundog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 06:10 PM
Response to Original message
96. Kerry will win... people are sick of living in doom & gloom!
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NoPasaran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 06:29 PM
Response to Original message
97. Polls schmolls!
I hope Busholini is wearing clean underwear because he is in for a serious spanking.
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George W. Dunce Donating Member (389 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 06:56 PM
Response to Reply #97
98. My gut tells me
Kerry wins big in EC, and the next morning people like BoredtoDeath are right back in here telling us how they knew it all along.
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Gyre Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 07:20 PM
Response to Original message
99. It's telling me something different than it was telling me when this
question was posed. Now that Kerry's begun landing some body blows on Iraq, my tummy's feeling better. :)

Gyre
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Leilani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Sep-20-04 07:42 PM
Response to Original message
100. My gut tells me its still up in the air.
Momentum has been with Bush for a while, but it seems the tide may be turning.

Things in Iraq are getting uglier, daily.

Kerry seems to have decided to turn things around & has begun to fight.

The debates will be overwhelmingly important this year. People do not want to vote again for Bush, but Kerry must STILL convince them to vote for him.

If he succeeds, he will win.
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