Something is brewing in the South

[WI_DEM]

John Kerry and John Edwards are competitive in the south, according to the new national ARG poll and other polls.

The most competitve southern states according to ARG are:
Florida 46-45 Kerry
West Virginia 46-46 tie
Arkansas 48-45 Bush
North Carolina 49-44 Bush
Virginia 49-43 Bush

Bush in many southern states is running substantially behind his 2000 margin of victory.

For instance in West Virginia he won the state by 6 points and is now dead even with Kerry.

North Carolina went to Bush by 13, now it is a 5-point edge.
Virginia went to Bush by 8, now it is 6.
Mississippi went to Bush by 17, now he is currently leading by 9.
South Carolina went to Bush by 16, in ARG Bushie is ahead by 12, Rasmussen has him up by only 9.

There isn't a single southern state where Bush is polling better than in 2000, and in terms of the popular vote that is important.

[cheshire]

1. Kerry spoke in FL today and to win these would be sooo sweet.

[Cha]

4. "Sweet", Yes..final vindication

in Florida! And to hear what jeeby would yabber about it would be almost as sweet!

[Carla in Ca]

42. I also heard * negative approval now at 54%..yipeeeee!

[sui generis]

2. and a reminder about Texas

Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the 2000 election and the 2002 midterms in Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. It's just rest of this overwhelmingly undereducated inbred rural state who have never even been to a big city who have decided that we need to be a "republican" state.

[WolverineDG]

28. as a texas dem who doesn't live

in those areas, please realize that we are doing what we can to get dems to the polls. dems in rural areas outnumber republicans, but with all the talk about how texas is republican, texas is for bush + being ignored by candidates leads many dems to stay home.

hopefully the texas veterans road rally, which kicks off this friday in laredo, will help get dems energized & to the polls on nov. 2 so we can TAKE BACK TEXAS!!

dg

[sui generis]

32. Get 'em to the polls!

I actually know several rural families (farmers) who are dems, both here in Texas and in Washington state.

It really is a matter of getting them to the polls and getting their votes counted.

I just critically hate BBV in Texas - it needs to go away. I honestly have a hard time believing that unknown stupid white haired old man beat Ron Kirk for senate by a landslide, even in Dallas where he was an overwhelmingly popular mayor. The numbers were just not possible, given how profoundly stupid and inexperienced Cornyn was (still is).

[cally]

3. I'm so happy about this

I hope it's very close in Southern states. The Republican lock on the south has skewed our political process and made too many believe that a certain RW mindset should dominate our political discourse. If the Dems make it close or win a few of these, I think it will make the national media and politicians pay attention the diversity of thought in the South and in the nation.

[DrFunkenstein]

5. Bush May Be Happy About The Current Polls, But Momentum...

Is distinctly in our favor. Everything will change after the debates. For instance, Bush will be walking around like this:

[crispini]

6. well, don't forget,

Bush has never lost a debate. (this is true).

didn'tcha get the memo? ;)

[trogdor]

10. I hate it when they remind us of that.

Won by what measure? A poll of an assembled group of "undecideds" ABC News assembled which includes about 30% FReepers? A poll of radio talk-show hosts? A blow-by-blow account judged by the people who judged figure skating at the 2002 Winter Olympics?

I suppose if the objective was to convince a majority of Americans that Bush wasn't completely nuts, then he won on that count. Particularly inspiring he was not, IIRC, and he was visibly intoxicated in the third debate, which was why Gore walked up behind him while he was slurring out his answers - he wanted to smell the liquor on his breath. If Gore or Kerry or any other Democrat were to show up to a debate smirking and giggling like that, the speculation that they were hammered would be all over the news by morning.

[Beetwasher]

13. Bush is a Masterful Debater; It's His Folksy Charm, His Mastery of the

Issues and of course his steadfast faith and confidence. Kerry is most assuredly the underdog in the debates and will have his work cut out for him.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it!

[quaoar]

17. Don't forget

His keen insight and his flair for language.

[LibertyorDeath]

50. That's right he is Catastrophic in a debate one hell of an opponent

Hi language skills are unmatched by any current or previous Politician.

[DrFunkenstein]

12. That's Why I Didn't Start A Thread With That Pic...

Shhhh. Keep it on the DL.

[Trajan]

7. It's time to recognize our brethren in the South ....

From a NJ Boy to his fellow progressives in the South ....

I am YOUR brother: and I love ya ! ....

Now: to quote the illustrious Magistrate:

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!" ....

[quaoar]

18. Your brother in Alabama

Thanks you.

[Anaxamander]

30. Your brother from Georgia

thanks you truly for your statement. I am a die-hard liberal Democrat, but it's hard to click on a thread like this because I know there will be posts like, "Fuck the South, those inbred hillbillies," and etc. All I say is, remember Clinton. Clinton won here. He carried Georgia in '92. We can do it again!

[Claire Beth]

8. yeah...and it isn't over for Kerry in Tennessee....

either. I worked the phone banks the other night at the Kerry campaign here in Nashville. For sure, West TN will go with Kerry and from the phone calls I was making the other night, I got a lot of positive responses here.

[Beetwasher]

9. Yeah, But He's Tied in NJ!

and if you believe that! :eyes:

Go figure...

[WI_DEM]

14. ARG has Kerry up by 8 in NJ

much better than being 4 down like Survey USA showed.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

25. Survey USA is crap

Their polls seem to never be accurate.

Besides, pollsters and the media always paint New Jersey as close, and it always goes Democrat...they tried to make it look competitive in 2000, and Gore won it by 14 points.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

40. If he's tied in NJ, then he has a stab at Massachusetts

whoever is conducting the polls pulled that one out of their ass. :eyes:

[pdx_prog]

11. I have hopes for WV...

They have voted Dem for ever.....I am sure Kerry will prevail...

And Florida hasn't had a decent poll conducted since July!

No way Jr. can pull of Florida again!

[BillZBubb]

31. "No way Jr. can pull off Florida again"

You had better rephrase that: "There is no LEGIT way...

Jebbie can always steal it for him again. He's sure as hell trying.

[Claire Beth]

35. They didn't vote dem in 2000....

West VA went to AWOL.

[theHandpuppet]

58. Gonna put a sign on my house...

WEST VIRGINIA:
Not just W's personal draft pool anymore!

[BootinUp]

15. More competitive in AK than NC

Why does that not surprise me.

[WI_DEM]

20. yep

Gore should have really utilized Clinton in '00

[comsymp]

46. Depends on the poll

Celinda Lake's 9/17 numbers showed 'em tied here at 47.

Which doesn't surprise us

[CornField]

16. In the words of my devout Evangical family in Texas

"We are tired of being pandered to & are beginning to wonder if he is a Christian at all."

[LibertyorDeath]

49. "beginning to wonder " LOL

[hatrack]

54. I can't tell you how glad I am to hear something like that!!

Very refreshing, though my state can't even approach the deep red of the Lone Star state.

[Lex]

19. John Edwards is our Senator in North Carolina.

I feel like he will get a boost of a few points for that.

Lots of people would be proud to have our NC senator as VP and that, believe it or not, will be the deciding factor for some undecideds.

[quaoar]

21. The most recent poll in Alabama (Rasmussen)

showed Bush up by 11. Bush won here in 2000 by 15 points.

But the black vote in Alabama, if it turns out in large numbers, can make up about 30% of the electorate and make it a lot closer than that. Mississippi has an even higher percentage of black population.

[sister moon]

22. In Orlando last night...

I was at the rally last night in Orlando. It was amazing! So heartwarming to see and talk with so many like-minded Kerry supporters/Bush haters.There may be hope for FL after all. Stood in the rain for about an hour, had my umbrella confiscated but it was soooooo worth it.Great speech--even though his voice was rocky--highlight of the evening: I got to shake the Big Man's hand!! Tried to shake Edward's hand but could only manage a pat on the shoulder. And yes, ladies, he is THAT good-looking in person, too!

[newyawker99]

23. Hi sister moon!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[faithnotgreed]

29. welcome to du sister moon!

[mahina]

36. Welcome to DU!

Thanks for that great first post. What a heartwarming start to the morning.
:)

[demokatgurrl]

59. There is NO WAY

Jebbie will allow Kerry to win Florida.
No matter how many votes he gets.

[UnapologeticLiberal]

24. Why is Kerry pulling out of Virginia?

Someone said in class today that Kerry was giving up on Virginia and pulling his ads...does anyone know anything about this?

I heard he is also downgrading his activity in Colorado, which I think is really stupid, given the fact that several polls have actually shown him ahead or close behind there.

[Lex]

26. If Edwards is campaining in South Carolina today

then Kerry/Edwards CERTAINLY hasn't given up on Virginia.

[HFishbine]

27. I am personally going to deliver NC for Kerry

My gift to you.

[Lex]

43. I'm holding you to that, HFishbine!

It would be sweet if our state went for Kerry and I believe it can happen!

:thumbsup:

[BootinUp]

52. I would

never argue with you again....

:)

[democratreformed]

33. According to the 9-20 Zogby, Arkansas is 46.6% Kerry to 46.5% Bush.

I like that better than the one you cited. Which one is newer?

GO ARKANSAS!!!!!!!!

[Radical Activist]

48. Arkansas has been basically tied the whole time

You'd think it would get more attention than it does.

[KharmaTrain]

34. Watch Where Bunnypants & Crashcart Show Up

We should have a tracking map...Bunnypants will be sent to energize the base or shore it up. It's late now, so each trip is strategic and the timing and locations are a good indication of what's really going on. If * spends lot of time in "Democratic battlegrounds" (states Gore won in 2000...like WI or IA or PA) or in places like New Jersey or Maryland, we're in trouble...but if it's his battlegrounds...(W Va., Tenn., NV, AZ, Mo) and states he won like NC & Colorado...that means he's in trouble...big trouble.

Crashcart could even more telling...if he stays visible, that means he's not being too much of a negative and helping drive up "the base". If he vanishes, leaving the manchild all alone, get ready for some fun days ahead.

[Doohickie]

37. Here in Fort Worth

Texas, I would say there are at least as many Kerry-Edwards signs and bumper stickers as there are B-C. I hope to do a precinct walk before the election, but I haven't been able to do one yet.

When I was repairing the sign in my yard that a Repug had ripped up, several of my neighbors tooted and gave a thumbs up.

I started a thread here a couple weeks ago on the Texas board asking whether people were tired of hiding their Democrat-ness. At that time, I didn't feel comfortable letting people around me know I was a Dem. Since then I've come to realize that Texas has a lot more Dems than I thought! I think we just didn't want to pick fights with our Repub neighbors.

But now, the gloves are off.

"The Hour is now Striking." (-Winston Churchill, June 6, 1944)

[crispini]

51. Heh!

I WANNA PICK FIGHTS!
I WANNA PICK FIGHTS!
I WANNA PICK FIGHTS!
I WANNA PICK FIGHTS!
I WANNA PICK FIGHTS!
I WANNA PICK FIGHTS!
I WANNA PICK FIGHTS!
I WANNA PICK FIGHTS!

No-one has given me any crap yet. I'm just waiting!

watch me turn Texas blue. or at least, purple.

[liberal N proud]

38. Oh wouldn't that be somthing if Kerry swept the south?

It would be party till dawn Nov 3.

[juslikagrzly]

39. Oklahoma here

and while we're never on anyone's radar as far as elections go, (just crazy repug politicians and other unseemly happenings) I am happy to report that my unofficial count of Kerry signs far outnumber the * signs I see, probably 8 to 1 in my "red"neck of the woods.

It's frustrating being in a state that somehow doesn't matter. Going repug, no need to pay attention.

We do have a pretty good race for Senate and the so-called dem candidate is pulling ahead of crazy-man Coburn. While it hurts to actually call Carson a dem, it will affect the way the Senate goes.

Maybe all is not lost. My hubbie grad student reported that over 100 kids showed up for a Kerry rally at OSU. That in itself is absolutely amazing!

[Doohickie]

41. I've seen OK going blue in some projections

[juslikagrzly]

44. No Way!

That would be too cool for school and I would be absolutely amazed.

[Julien Sorel]

45. That's without campaigning and ad time?

I'm suspicious about these polls, I really am. And if they are reliable, can someone who lives in one of these states (besides Florida, of course), tell me if the K-E campaign is running ads there?

[JohnKleeb]

47. Virginnnnnnnnnnnnnnnia

is gonna be a close one, I really think Kerry can win here or at least get more near Clinton's margin than Gore, the dems here especially the young dems are energized, we got at least 20 members around, we meet weekly, and I think we could be a large part of making Virginia blue :), goddamnit I am so happy.

[BootinUp]

53. There is surprisingly few Bush signs and bumper stickers

here in Rural Georgia.

[DemBones DemBones]

57. Yes, if Georgia is going for Bush*, it's going quietly,

as if the Bush* supporters are all ashamed of themselves for supporting Dim Son.

[GarySeven]

55. I live in Cobb County, Ga. ...

The home of Newt Gingrich and Bob Barr and I have to tell ya ...

In the past few months I have seen more and more KE stickers and fewer BC stickers on cars. I don't know if that means anything, but there you go.

[merh]

56. What are the Alabama numbers?

I started a thread earlier about the pro-* campaign ads being aired by Mobile AL stations lately. I don't know if the numbers are falling off or if the * bunch is trying to capitalize on the hurricane coverage and get to the Florida voters or all of the above.

It is just creepy to see * ads out of Mobile local stations (cbs & fox affiliates).