PA-Sen: Sestak Gains Ground After Official Launch

[ccharles000]

Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters, 6/16 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 47 (51)
Joe Sestak (D): 34 (32)
Other: 3 (4)
Undecided: 16 (13)
(MoE: ±5%)

Those are the best nums for Joe Sestak yet from any pollster. (Quinnipiac had Specter up by 32 points in mid-July.) Perhaps there's a bit of an announcement bounce for Sestak in effect here, but if these numbers are accurate, Arlen Specter has a lot to worry about.

Also interesting was this tidbit:

Among voters who favor the congressional health care plan, Specter leads 55% to 26%. However, among those who oppose the plan, Sestak leads 61% to 25%.

So, despite challenging Specter from the left, Sestak is gobbling up the early support of seemingly anti-public option Democrats. Go figure.

Rasmussen's favorability numbers have shown little movement since June; Specter's at 71-25 while Sestak's sitting on an implausibly high 54-23. (That so many people have an opinion of Sestak is probably due to IVR methodology.) Quinnipiac painted a much different picture last month, with Specter carrying a 45-44 favorable rating to Sestak's 23-7.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5406/pasen-sestak-gains-ground-after-official-launch

[Ken Burch]

1. Does Pennsylvania have a "sore loser law"?

That is, if Spector were beaten in the Dem. primary, could he pull a Lieberman and stay in the race as an independent?

[rug]

3. He'd have to do it before the primary, as Lieberman did.

[PretzelWarrior]

4. what are you talking about? Lieberman lost the primary. so he came back as independent in general

the GOP agreed to run a stooge with no chance of winning and backed LIEberman. The rest is history.

[Dinger]

6. You Are Correct (nt)

[rug]

10. He formed a separate party July 10. The primary was August 8.

When he saw he was vulnerable he made plans in advance to be on the ballot even if he lost the primary.

"On July 3 in Hartford, Lieberman announced that he would collect signatures in order to guarantee himself a position on the November ballot. Both Lieberman and Smith said that Lieberman will run as a "petitioning Democrat" and will caucus with Senate Democrats if elected. On July 10, the Lieberman campaign officially filed paperwork allowing him to collect signatures to form a new political party, the Connecticut for Lieberman party."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_primary,_Connecticut_United_States_Senate_election,_2006#Primary_election

Lieberman was the only member of the Connecticut for Lieberman party.

[Dinger]

15. + 1

[Ken Burch]

18. OK. is THAT a possibility, then....Spector forming a new back-up party before the primary

then running on that if Sestak beat him in the primary?

Even though the GOP didn't like him leaving, I can see them doing this just as a passive-agressive way to stick it to the Dems.

[IndianaGreen]

19. AIPAC reared its ugly head and came to Lieberman's help

Who's to say they won't do the same for Specter?

[PretzelWarrior]

2. I don't think Sestak has a chance in hell.

[Dinger]

7. I Disagree (nt)

[SIMPLYB1980]

5. If he wants to win he better start showing up for votes.

Even Big Ed was not happy about that.

[Dinger]

8. Just sent This To The Greatest Page : )

Thanks for posting this ccharles:)

[polichick]

9. I heard Sestak admit that he's missed over a hundred votes - what's that about? nt

[S_E_Fudd]

11. I plan on supporting Specter next year....nt

[wisteria]

13. I do too. n/t

[wisteria]

12. I think it was wrong for Sestak to get into this race now. He forces Specter to use much needed

funds in a primary that should be reserved for a general election fight. He will weaken Specter when he takes on Toomey who has the money man Richard Mellon Scaife backing him. And, by some chance, if Sestak is our nominee- we will lose to Toomey. I am actually mad that Sestak has allowed his ambitions to ruin our chances in the next election.

[S_E_Fudd]

17. Not to mention possibly losing Sestak's congressional seat...

It does seem he has let his ambition outweigh hs good judgment

[Mass]

21. Not from PA, but how is Specter an acceptable candidate?

He is 80 and barely a Democrat by any reasonable standard. Look at the result. We cannot pass a decent healthcare bill even with 60 Dems.

[JCMach1]

14. The Colbert Effect...

[Blasphemer]

16. Well... I guess that depends on why they oppose the plan

There could be single payer advocates or those who don't think the plan (plans really) are strong enough. Without specifics, it's hard to say. I do think this is overall good news for Sestak. He's got a core anti-Specter group and just needs to chip away bit by bit to make it close enough to win. It won't be easy - hopefully he has a good game plan.

[Mass]

20. Democrats who oppose the Congressional plan? How many do support a single payer plan?\nt