CA-10: Garamendi Leads the Pack

[ccharles000]

SurveyUSA (8/10-11, likely voters):

John Garamendi (D): 26
David Harmer (R): 18
Mark DeSaulnier (D): 15
Joan Buchanan (D): 12
Anthony Woods (D): 5
Chris Bunch (R): 4
David Peterson (R): 4
Mark Loos (R): 2
Other: 4
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.3%)

This looks to be the first public poll of the special election to fill the seat of former Rep. Ellen Tauscher, though the Garamendi campaign recently released an internal (.pdf) that only sampled Democrats and decline-to-state voters. The results of that poll line up fairly well to SUSA's findings -- but only for the Democratic candidates, of course. Garamendi's poll, from Tulchin Research, pegged the Lt. Governor at 31, with DeSaulnier and Buchanan duking it out for second place at 21 and 17 points, respectively.

Interestingly, when asked, the Garamendi camp told us that they decided not to poll GOP voters in order to save money, and that they felt that no one candidate on the Democratic side would be a particularly strong draw of Republican votes. The DeSaulnier campaign objected, saying that the partial glimpse Garamendi's poll offered put the legitimacy of the results into question, but SUSA's crosstabs suggest that Garamendi, in fact, had the most to gain from including Republicans in his sample (other than the GOP candidates, of course); SUSA finds that 14% of Republican voters choose Garamendi, compared to 3% each for Buchanan and DeSaulnier. At this point, a Garamendi-Harmer run-off seems to be the smart bet.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5408/ca10-garamendi-leads-the-pack

[Cant trust em]

1. That's my parents district. I see his signs up all over town. nt

[CreekDog]

11. For a district that used to be conservative, that was the nicest place to volunteer for a Democrat

before redistricting it was much more conservative but still...

i worked on multiple campaigns while living in Walnut Creek and people out there were just terrific. when calling for Al Gore in 2000, time and time again people would tell me they were voting for him and encourage me in my volunteering --even the Nader voters were pretty friendly. I lived in a bluer district for 92 and 96 and despite that, it was much easier to volunteer in CA-10.

there's some really nice Democrats in that part of the Bay Area and in the past decade they've become the bigger party in almost all the cities out there, like Walnut Creek.

[Cant trust em]

14. That section of the east bay is pretty friendly.

My parents live in Fairfield, so it trends a little more red/purple.

Since I live in the city my future campaign work will probably be there.

[ronnykmarshall]

2. I wish he would have stood a chance to win the Gov race.

I don't have a lot of hope with the crop of democrats running.

[xxqqqzme]

4. He was my choice for a run for governor

But, like you, I could see the writing on the wall @ the last CDP convention. I think it will be Newsom running.

[ronnykmarshall]

5. Love Newsom ...... but

He doesn't stand a chance winning. Same with Jerry Brown.

[xxqqqzme]

7. Really after steroid boy

fucked everything up, I can't see any rethug sittin' in Sacramento gov's office.

[ronnykmarshall]

8. I hope so.

[Name removed]

3. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[senseandsensibility]

6. I saw him "live" at a local Dem fundraiser

and the guy is VERY progressive, and charismatic. No wimp factor, there. I wanted him to run for Governor.

[CreekDog]

9. I like Garamendi and I used to live in that district

The insider's pick there was Mark DeSaulnier who's was on the Contra Costa Board of Supervisors. I found him fairly uninspired and he was a recently a Republican.

I'm glad Garamendi got in the race.

[asdjrocky]

10. Anthony Woods is a good candidate.

And he has a great story.

[Forkboy]

12. Thanks for posting all the threads you do on these smaller races.

:thumbsup:

[question everything]

13. When will Democrats learn that a candidate has to have some charisma

has to be personable?

[senseandsensibility]

15. Who are you referring to?

Garamendi is very charasmatic and VERY progressive.

[Peggy Day]

16. Don't they need 51% or there will be another election? nt