New Zogby (9/19)

[Nicholas_J]

Bush Continues To Hold Slim Lead Over Kerry (46%-43%); President Widens the Gap In the War on Terrorism (75%-19%)- While Kerry Leads On Other Top Issues, New Zogby America Poll Reveals


With just 44 days to go before voters cast their ballots, President George W. Bush continues to hold a slim lead over Senator John Kerry (46%-43%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The telephone poll of 1066 likely voters was conducted from Friday through Sunday (September 17-19, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1%.

Nearly one in three (29%) continue to identify jobs and the economy as the top issue facing the country, followed by the war on Iraq (19%); the war on terrorism (17%); health care (12%); and education (4%).

Pollster John Zogby: "While the overall numbers remain unchanged, there are some revealing cross-tabulations. Kerry continues to lead on four of five top issues but some possible worrisome details. Among those who say the economy is the top issue, Kerry now leads only 49% to 43%. He maintains wide leads among those who cite the war in Iraq as top issue (55% to 37%), those who cite health care (56% to 32%), and those who cite education (53% to 36%). But the President has widened his advantage over those who cite the war on terrorism to a 56 point lead -- 75% to 19%. This is still very close but has Kerry stopped the bleeding?

“Kerry's problem continues to be that he has not energized his base as much as Bush has energized his own. The President leads 92% to 5% among those say the country is headed in the right direction, while Kerry only earns the support of 79% of those who feel the country is on the wrong track. Bush gets 10% of this latter group while 9% are undecided. Kerry will have to convince at least half of that 9% to vote for him."

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=867

[molly]

1. Thanks, Nick - nice to have some reality here

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

2. Still a statistical dead heat

Also the poll shows some 50% believe Bush does not deserve reelection. A recent Harris poll had the figure at 51%.

I agree Kerry needs to get his message across. For one thing he should talk about his Senate career. People on this board know of Kerry's role in investigating the Iran/Contra and BCCI scandals but I've never heard anything about this in the mainstream media.

[Nicholas_J]

3. Todays Rasmussen

HAs Bush dropping 2 points and Kerry rising 2 points.

Also Rasmussen has agreed with Zogby's analysis that the media polls have a built in bias, and more than that, the voters beleive that those polls are biased as well

[rockymountaindem]

4. Overall I'd say that's pretty encouraging

[Nicholas_J]

6. Another intesresting factor

Is that in the Zogby poll, Nader is only pulling a bit lower than 2 percent, but the Libertarian candidate is within a half a point of that. Whatever Kerry loses to Nader will be offset by Bush's losses to the Libertarian candidate and the Constitution Party candidate. Added togetther. both of these parties are picking up more than Nader is in the national polls.

[Ravenseye]

5. What the Heck Is Wrong with 13% of the people!?

I mean...

They're voting for Kerry.

They think he's better dealing with Iraq, health care, education, and the economy...

Yet these 13% of people think Bush is better at the war on terrorism. Why? Why do they think Kerry would be better at all the rest of this stuff but Bush better on terroris?

[carpetbagger]

7. They want to nuke all the Arabs.

They'll settle for a good job, though.

Really, there are large numbers of democrats like this.