AR-Sen: Lincoln Leads, But Under 50%

[ccharles000]

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/8-10, likely voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44
Gilbert Baker (R): 37
Undecided: 19

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45
Curtis Coleman (R): 37
Undecided: 18

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 46
Tom Cox (R): 29
Undecided: 25

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 47
Kim Hendren (R): 28
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4%)

Blanche Lincoln fares a little better in R2K's first look at the Arkansas Senate race than she did in the recent PPP poll, which had her trailing state Sen. Gilbert Baker by 2 points. Here, she has a 7-point lead on Baker, and also beats her goofier GOP opponents by margins ranging from 8 to 19 (in the case of state Sen. Kim "That Jew" Hendren).

Still, Lincoln shouldn't be resting on her laurels. She's polling well below the 50% mark, and her approvals are a net negative: 43/49 (with only 17% "very favorable"). Her opponents remain largely unknown, with "no opinion" ranging from 73% for Baker and 75% for Curtis "Shots and Visa" Coleman, to 85% for Cox and Hendren. One finding that might give her a little breathing room, though, is that Arkansans support creation of the public option, 55-38 (when the interviewer fully explains it and doesn't just say "public option")... assuming, of course, that she's actually interested in what her constituents think about the matter.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5581/arsen-lincoln-leads-but-under-50

[Jack Rabbit]

1. If Lincoln loses in the primary, what are the chances the Democarats

. . . can pick up the seat?

[Hippo_Tron]

2. It's Arkansas, the state voted 60/40 for McSame

I'm honestly not even sure Bill Clinton could win a senate seat there these days.