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First is the allies of the United States who are close to the world's crap disturbers. The Gulf states such as Qatar, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain rely on us to not be swallowed by the Saudi extremists or the nutjobs in Iran. That is the most obvious problem. Leaving them to fend for themselves will almost certainly cause wars in itself.
Japan and South Korea are a problem, too. North Korea is insane and China backs them up, us going home at that point will almost certainly be a sign that we can't or won't defend them anymore. South Korea and Japan, knowing that, will be nuclear powers within months, tops. Taiwan and Australia present such problems, too. Nuclear-armed Japan and South Korea with Nuclear-armed North Korea and China nearby is a recipe for disaster, quite literally.
Then you have eastern Europe, which faces down the increasingly hard-line lunatics in Moscow. Ukraine and Georgia are on the direct end of this, being messed with by Russia regularly despite us being there. Do we want to extend that further? If we pull out, they'll extend that to Poland, Hungary, the Baltic nations (which Russia has actually proposed invading on more than one occasion), the Czech Republic, Romania and others.
And that's before we get to Israel. The Israelis have enough problems, leaving them on their own will cause both sides there to lash out, the Israelis and the Arabs. The Israelis decide that if we won't stop Iran's nuclear program they'll have to do it themselves, and we get a war as a result. Iran could then decide to blockade the Straits of Hormuz, which then results in a gigantic spike in il prices worldwide - which then feeds more wars, more deaths.
We need to be out there. I know being able to cut big chunks off of the military budget sounds attractive, but with the ambitions of China, India, Iran and Russia, we should be preparing for staring them down once Afghanistan and Iraq are history. We should be building the F-22 and other projects, and focus our military budgets on two goals:
1) Ensuring stability in the world 2) Being able to respond effectively to emergencies (emergencies meaning less wars, more disaster relief and responding to the needs of our allies)
IMO, this means more Navy, Air Force and Marines. Yes, perhaps we don't need permanent troops stationed in Germany or South Korea. But we must still be able to respond.
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