Dems ponder drop in black voter turnout

[WI_DEM]

Democrats are bracing for a precipitous drop in black voter turnout next month and beyond.

Alarms are being rung about just how many African-Americans will vote without President Barack Obama on the ballot, and the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races in three weeks will provide the first major test since the 2008 election.

A recent Washington Post survey estimated the black turnout in Virginia’s governor’s race at 12 percent, which would be about a 40 percent drop from last year’s general election. Other polling has shown both its and New Jersey’s black population unmoved about the off-year election.

Tom Jensen, a spokesman for the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, has been among the most outspoken. He said the high number of Democrats with districts that are significantly black means such a turnout shift could be disastrous for Democrats.


“If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House,” Jensen said.


“We really don’t find that many people who voted Democratic in 2008 are switching sides; they’re just becoming complacent,” he added. “And that’s particularly true with black Democrats, which is the party’s most dependable voter bloc.”

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/62967-democrats-ponder-a-big-drop-in-turnout-among-black-voters

[Peacetrain]

1. Well if people just throw up their hands when the going gets a little tough

then we will be back to square one.

[WI_DEM]

2. the problem with off year elections is that it's usually the out-party which is more worked up and

motivated to vote. I hope that we win at least one of the governorships next month (NJ at this point seems the most likely).

[Peacetrain]

4. That is so true... and the right have such a media outlet that we do not

It is boots on the ground time again.

[bluestateguy]

3. Wait a minute, I think this one might be a candidate for...

Doom doom doom. Gloom gloom gloom.

[AndyA]

5. Perhaps President Obama should go on record and encourage EVERYONE to vote.

Remind them that the only reason things turned out the way they did in 2008 is because they VOTED. Remind them that if they don't vote this time, it will undo a lot of the good that was done last year.

[fugop]

6. exactly

I'm hoping he does just that. If health care is a go, and if the economy is looking up, I hope he helps drive home how important it is not to sit out ANY election ever.

[karynnj]

7. I agree that this needs examining, but this infers to much from two races

The fact is that no one of any color or party is enthusiastic about the race here in NJ. I think that Corzine has gotten more criticism than he deserves, but he really is not popular. I think that he needs to make the case for himself that Obama made for him at a joint appearance. He did make hard choices on the budget and, given the alternatives, they were the correct ones.

It also seems as though Deeds is not a very charismatic candidate.

I think that Corzine will pull it out, but the he will do so with really low turnout. I can't say if it was their strategy but both campaigns seem to be trying to lower turnout by the sheer nastiness of this campaign.

[RepublicanElephant]

8. is obama planning any last-minute campaign stops there? nt

[Phx_Dem]

9. Alot of people don't vote in midterms. Why do AAs get all the blame?

AA turnout will likely be lower as will turnout by whites, Hispanics, Asians, etc. Why blame only African Americans? Am I missing something?