Heated topic of Iraq blazes both campaign trails

[papau]

The WSJ 's Schlesinger and Hitt say the Kerry campaign's view of Iraq is: "If voters judge the Iraq war issue by the benefits of removing Saddam Hussein, President Bush prevails. If the focus shifts to conditions in Iraq after Mr. Hussein's fall, Senator John Kerry has a better chance to win in November."

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20040917/a_hype17.art.htm


Heated topic of Iraq blazes both campaign trails
Hype & Glory By Walter Shapiro

WASHINGTON — John Kerry no longer thunders his challenge to George W. Bush: “Bring it on!” But even though the Democratic nominee has changed catchphrases, Kerry seems more determined to bring it on when it comes to battling Bush over national security. With his sternly worded speech Thursday afternoon to the National Guard Association meeting in Las Vegas, Kerry is fast making the debilitating war in Iraq the central issue in this campaign.

This topic should be the president's turf. Not only does Bush command a hefty lead in the polls as the candidate judged best able to handle terrorism and Iraq, but presidents typically benefit from rally-'round-the-flag patriotism when troops are in combat. The commander in chief told the National Guard group Tuesday, “Our mission in Iraq is critical. And our men and women in uniform — active, Guard and Reserve — are doing a superb job for America.”

Most of the issue terrain on which this campaign is being fought is unlikely to change. A handful of new statistics will not alter the economic environment. Few voters will lose their jobs or get new ones between now and Nov. 2. The challenges of rising health care costs and Medicare premiums will not suddenly abate.

Iraq, however, remains in flux. Car bombings, kidnappings and U.S. casualties have been an inescapable part of the news. The New York Times reported Wednesday that a secret National Intelligence Estimate, prepared in July, outlines three downbeat scenarios for Iraq. The most dire is a descent into civil war. White House press secretary Scott McClellan told reporters Thursday that the intelligence document “states the obvious.”

But the question before the voters is what conclusions to draw from the news reports and TV pictures from Iraq. Bush claimed at a rally Thursday in St. Cloud, Minn., that although there are “ongoing acts of violence, this country is headed toward democracy.” Kerry contended in his National Guard speech that “with each passing day, we're seeing more chaos, more violence, more indiscriminate killings.” This is more than an optimist battling a pessimist over whether a glass is half full or half empty. The president and his challenger are offering two widely divergent portrayals of reality. <snip>