UPDATE: (Gallup) Bush 54 Kerry 40 Nader 3

[liberalpragmatist]

Note: Formerly titled "Gallup - Bush Ahead By 13 - is this true? (Rumor)"

That's the figure some other DU'er mentioned he had been told by a friend with connections. I can't remember who posted it.

Any word on this?

UPDATE: Okay... So I looked on DailyKos and in the diaries section, someone had posted a similar thread. Apparently Rich Lowry on National Review Online mentioned the results. So either it's true and people in high places on both sides have advance notice OR it's just a false internet rumor with no basis in fact.

Oh and also, don't shoot the messenger. I don't want this to turn into a David Durham or whoever-the-guy-is bashing-thread. I'm just curious if anybody else has heard anything or found anything.

UPDATE II: Okay. So official word. THank you to OilemFirchen of Reply #24. From http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2004/09/16/ap/headlines/d85521mg0.txt:

A new poll from the Pew Research Center said the "bounce" that seemed to propel Bush to a lead just after the Republican convention had disappeared. But he was ahead by double digits in another survey.

The Pew poll found the race at 46-46 among registered voters, and 47-46 Bush among likely voters. A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

So it actually appears that according to Gallup, it's a 14-point spread. God I hope it's not a USAToday/CNN/Gallup poll. Then we'll be treated to days and days of more whoring by CNN of how Bush is way ahead.

UPDATE III: Okay, so I googled "Gallup" AND "wild swings." Guess what I found? This article from the Wall Street Journal's Opinion Journal. I think I'll post this as a separate thread. Read away:

http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=65000474

Title: "Gallup's Credibility Gap
What's with those wild swings in the polls?"

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. That person was spamming that info on multiple threads. They said it was

told to them by a "prominent Dem" who gets advance notice on such things.

In other words, no link, no documentation, nothing to see here.

[Democat]

2. This is the user posting that information

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=user_profiles&u_id=108707

He has over 1500 posts.

[VOX]

11. Your point being?

?????????

[michigandem2]

38. its really okay..we know gallup stinks...no need to remind us

let * have a lead..its the only one he will have...at least our lead will make Kerry the next President...November 2nd is all that matters and we are PUMPED to GOTV

[wurzel]

3. Bush is not ahead by 13. He is 13.

[joefree1]

4. CNN and Gallup are up to desperate measures?

Trying to counter the three polls today showing a close race. This is really gonna start tongues a wagging. Must have a got another call from their Saudi backers.


Download the free poster/sign here:
http://ediablo.com/eDiabloGallery.html

[RethugAssKicker]

5. BS hype

Don't believe it. The Bush media knows the more they tell us he is ahead the more we will vote for the "winner"..

They insult us all the time with their manipulations....AND GUESS WHAT....we BUY it!!!

[VOX]

6. Panic and lies are both contagious -- just repeat 'em often enough...

The individual who was posting this in multiple forums at the same time (= spam) had no link or source to back this up.

In fact, he was using this rumor to gain leverage with a very questionable takling point.

[sonicx]

7. its probably real, but it gallup and...

the guy was spamming. he should have just made a new thread.

[lancdem]

12. Given Gallup's track record, I wouldn't be surprised

[David Zephyr]

8. David Duncan.

He claims that the Gallup Poll will show that tomorrow. He's posted it several times today.

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

10. I think it was "dunham" but who cares really.

[21winner]

9. No

[David Dunham]

13. It is true. But remember that Gallup has more Repugs than Dems

Gallup is not as good a poll, hopefully, as the others. Gallup had Bush over Gore by 13% in 2000 just a week before the election.

[lancdem]

14. Way more Repubs

And as you say, Gallup had Bush over Gore by 13 a week before the election in 2000.

[David Dunham]

16. I think Gallup polls make good toilet paper.

[liberalpragmatist]

15. Gallup Does Tend to Overstate Trends

Remember way back last spring, right at the end of the primaries, they had Kerry up by 8 or 9 or something like that? Personally, I doubt Kerry was ever that much - he was probably ahead, but probably by 3 or 4 points.

[lancdem]

18. I think they had him up 12 once

Kerry never had a lead anywhere close to that.

[sonicx]

23. i wonder how 'news' outlets can trust a polling company...

that has polls with huge swings in both direction with no explaination...

[OilemFirchen]

17. Man, I thought you were tweaking.

And I went along with it.

Fuck Gallup. And fuck anyone who cites 'em.

Does anyone know if Amway does polling yet? I'd really like to see a thousand threads touting their results. I really would.

[joefree1]

19. Hey, maybe some Republican will want to do a probe on Gallup

... on why they are so bias.:crazy:


Download the free poster/bumper art here:
http://ediablo.com/eDiabloGallery.html

[VOX]

21. DD - If tomorrow Gallup does **not** show * up by 13%, will you...

please start a thread in GD: Campaign 2004 that states that?

It would be helpful if it could be pointed out to all on DU that a Gallup poll showed less of a lead for * than a "top Dem insider" said it would.

[dennis4868]

22. the rule should be....

that if you cannot give a source of your poll information dont post it....

[npincus]

26. then the poll's worth shit

[ItsMyParty]

20. Just a thought---isn't it usually CNN and USAToday that are

part of this poll?? Is tomorrow's paper up on line yet?????

[OilemFirchen]

24. It would appear that he's almost correct.

Which means two things:

1) Lay off the guy. Fair's fair.
2) Gallup has jumped the shark:

http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2004/09/16/ap/headlines/d85521mg0.txt

The Pew poll found the race at 46-46 among registered voters, and 47-46 Bush among likely voters. A Gallup poll being released Friday has Bush up 54-40 in a three-way matchup, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent.

[lancdem]

27. So it's actually 14

I have to see the internals on this.

[sonicx]

31. it was ok to tell the results but...

he didn't have to spam.

[Generator]

35. Does the Shrub have a problem locating his heart?

It looks like it's in his intestines with your picture.

[lancdem]

25. Did Lowry say it was 13 points?

[lablue]

28. it's true, but look at 2000

It's the lead story in USA Today tomorrow morning. But just go to Polling Reports 2000 summary and calm down. For instance: October 26 2000 Bush 52 Gore 39 in Gallups poll while Harris on the same day had Bush 48 Gore 43... sound familiar?

[annxburns]

29. Apologies to David

what he said was true.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040917/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp&cid=536&ncid=536

Contained in the above article. 54-40-3 for Bush-Kerry-Nader.

However, I don't believe it. And I don't believe the NG thing is hurting Kerry. I listened to two normal right leaning radio host on the way home today. They did not blame Kerry for the TANG memos, they said "Look, basically this is stupid. Let's talk about today. Let's talk about Iraq".

Gallup had Bush up by I think 10? two weeks before the 2000 election, Gallup is crap.

[npincus]

30. then Gallup will have to address the HUGE descrepency

between other new polls showing a dead heat between Bush/Kerry- as in their methodology. They will have to reveal they are weighted toward Republicans- oops. (yes, I know... when pigs fly)

[West Coast Democrat]

32. I seriously don't take Gallup polls seriously....

I'm sure CNN will talk about it for weeks, but Gallup has never been accurate before.

[tritsofme]

36. Except for the past 60 years

I am willing to bet that the RV numbers show a much tighter race.

[ItsMyParty]

33. ATTN: The poster just did a third update at bottom, read it--good

It directs you to a Wall Street Journal article about how bad Gallup is. Go click on and read it. Then you will understand. The sick thing is the propaganda value of it all. People think Gallup is some great poll when they hear it. Too bad they don't have this WJ piece to read.

[liberalpragmatist]

34. Yeah. I think this thread's sinking though

If that article doesn't get much exposure, I'll post it again later.

But thanks for reading it! :hi:

[faithnotgreed]

37. kick

[faustus]

39. Suggest actions

It apperars that, no matter what other polls say, Gallup will keep coming up with these ridiculous polls every week (and eventually every day once they start their tracking poll), undercutting any positive buzz for Kerry.

I think it is time that Democrats came up with a systematic way to mock Gallup and turn it into a laughingstock in the media. We can protest to CNN and USA Today, write letters to Blitzer and Cafferty, etc., but this needs to be done at the DNC and campaign level. It should be part of the talking points Dem pundits use on TV.

Thoughts?

F