Rasmussen Shows Big Bush Day

[louis c]

Some days I enjoy posting the Rasmussen data more than other days. Today is one of those days that sucks. But, we work here under full disclosure, so here goes.

Bush holds a 4 point lead in the three day national tracking poll, 49%-45%. This lead is actually larger without rounding, 49.3%-44.7% (4.6%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Rasmussen seven day Premium tracking data;

Florida, Bush 50%-46%; Michigan, Kerry 49%-46%; North Carolina, Bush 54%-41%; Ohio, 47% tie; Pennsylvania Bush 48%-45%; Weekly update for Iowa, Bush 47%-46%.

Let's hope this country wakes up in time.

[DaveinMD]

1. that is the danger

with the rolling track. It was expected to happen once the big Kerry day was removed. The other polling news today is very good.

[DU9598]

2. Iowa

Sorry, but Bush is not ahead in Iowa. I would doubt that he could be ahead in Pennsylvania, but I am obviously not there. I would estimate Kerry up 4-6 in Iowa.

[NJCher]

4. can you explain that a little more?

Cher

[Zynx]

3. This CBS thing does hurt us.

I doubt it had that much of an effect, but it certainly doesn't help.

[yellowcanine]

5. Live by Rasmussen, Die by Rasmussen. Hate to say "I told you so," but I

did - over and over. Once again all together now - Rasmussen uses unreliable automated telephone survey techniques. It is not much better than an internet poll. Would you respond to a computer that called you up and started asking questions? Well, who would? A bored 10 yr old would. That's why the poll is crap.

[Dems Will Win]

6. Rasmussen??

He was wrong by 8 points on Election Day 2000, the most of any pollster.

[sonicx]

8. he's changed. he weights his polls now. nt

[sonicx]

7. 4 point margin is in line with other polls

what did you tell us?

[KittyWampus]

9. DU'ers Whom I Respect For Their Knowledge Of Polling Suggest Pew

is the most reputable.

I kind of don't pay much attention til I hear Pew.

And they show Kerry tied. :)

[louis c]

10. Tracking is a trend

you can't get to high about a one day spike, it has to be a large lead over four or five days.

Although I don't like today's number, we need to wait to judge its accuracy.

This is a divided electorate, but still volatile in the small amount of swing voters.

[lancdem]

11. At least Ohio and Michigan are encouraging

:)

[louis c]

12. There's a long way to go

we have three debates, and then we get to the issues.

When we get to the issues, I expect better results.

Not just because Kerry is more intelligent than President Shit Head, but because the facts are on our side.