OKNancy
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:42 AM
Original message |
Clark numbers keep rising in New Hampshire -ARG- 1-9-04 |
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Edited on Fri Jan-09-04 10:43 AM by OKNancy
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maddezmom
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:45 AM
Response to Original message |
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2004 New Hampshire Democratic Tracking
3-Day Results Jan 2-4 Jan 3-5 Jan 4-6 Jan 5-7 Jan 6-8 Braun 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Clark 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% Dean 39% 37% 36% 35% 35% Edwards 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Gephardt 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% Kerry 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% Kucinich 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Lieberman 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Other 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Undecided 17% 16% 17% 16% 16% Sample size 622 619 613 613 613 Democrats 453 445 437 436 436 Undeclared 169 174 176 177 177 Undeclared (%) 27% 28% 29% 29% 29% Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points Methodology
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Mattforclark
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:45 AM
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CMT
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:46 AM
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men are closely divided between Dean and Clark 30-28, while women favor Dean 40-13. Looks like most of Clark's gains though have been from Kerry--who continues to weaken. If he continues to fall he might come in fourth behind--Joe Lieberman who is up to 8% compared to 11% for Kerry.
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Jerseycoa
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
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Edited on Fri Jan-09-04 10:55 AM by Jerseycoa
"Looks like most of Clark's gains though have been from Kerry"
Jan 2-4 Jan 3-5 Jan 4-6 Jan 5-7 Jan 6-8
Braun 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% flat Clark 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% +8 Dean 39% 37% 36% 35% 35% -4 Edwards 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% flat Gephardt 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% -1 Kerry 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% -4 Kucinich 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% flat Lieberman 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% +2 Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% flat Other 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% Undecided 17% 16% 17% 16% 16%
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CMT
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #10 |
30. you have to go back to the beginning of the polling |
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Where Dean was at 37% for several days, Clark was at 12% and Kerry began his long slide from 19%. Now Dean is at 35% after peaking one day at 39%. Kerry has gone from 19% to 11% over the entire coarse of the polling. Overall, I still think that most of Clark's gains have been at Kerry's expense. Dean is relatively stable and well within the moe.
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mouse7
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #3 |
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Kerry and Lieberman have been very close in the tone their campaigns have taken. While there are serious seperations on issues, both have been far more prone to attack other candidates than discuss their stands on issues. The message voters are actually getting from these campaigns has been very similar. You have to research the issues yourself to know how different they are.
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returnable
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:48 AM
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PoofTheNinjaMog
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:48 AM
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5. but can clark beat dean? or bush? i dont think either |
Dookus
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #5 |
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even three days ago I would've said it was impossible. I posted repeatedly a week ago that Dean would win NH, and he'd win it big. Now I think Clark may pull a very close second, which would be awesome for his campaign.
the big unknown still is Iowa. If Gephardt does better than expected in IA, he'll get a big bump in NH.
But if things keep going this way and Gephardt simply shows in Iowa, Clark is going to be in a very close race with Dean in NH.
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Jerseycoa
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
19. Do they track in Iowa like this? |
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I'd like to watch that one.
Dean's margin of victory in NH now looks like it will be smaller than expected.
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CMT
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #12 |
35. you forget that if Dean wins Iowa |
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he will get a bump in NH. For instance, in '88 Gep was at 3% in NH polls, and then he won Iowa and came in second in NH with 22%. A Dean win in Iowa would also give Dean a bump--maybe not as large as Gep (because Gep was so far behind) but probably 5 or 6 points.
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Kahuna
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:20 AM
Response to Reply #35 |
39. But Dean is ALREADY expected to win NH, his neighbor.. |
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state. So, what's the diff?
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democratreformed
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:48 AM
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Dookus
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:50 AM
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Kerry's tanking, Clark is rising,and Dean is easing down.
Needless to say, I'm very happy about this. NancyOK beat me to this - I kept hitting refresh to get the latest numbers. She got 'em first.
I really think we're seeing something very important here.
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OKNancy
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #7 |
14. I remember yesterday that they came out at about 9:35 CST |
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so I sat there and refreshed for a few minutes too....with butterflies. Dare I dream? This is from a campaign that had 4% just a month ago, and the teevee boobs were all but writing him off.
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Clark4Prez
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:51 AM
Response to Original message |
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The Big Mo has come to visit the General.
:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce: :bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce: :bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce: :bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce: :bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce: :bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:
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Bread and Circus
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:51 AM
Response to Original message |
9. So exciting, does anyone know if his American Son tapes have been mailed.. |
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to potential voters in New Hampshire?
I know he was planning on sending 50,000 tapes to NH voters.
The gap is 15% right now.
Please keep it up!
Thanks New Hampshire.
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Killarney
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:53 AM
Response to Reply #9 |
16. That's this weekend, I believe n/t |
Bread and Circus
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:03 AM
Original message |
I think that is going to make a big difference. |
Mattforclark
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:52 AM
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11. UMM - voting rights??? |
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WTF?
"Over the past 2 days of calling, a number of older respondents registered as undeclared voters have reported that they have received telephone calls from a campaign informing them that they will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary because they missed the deadline to switch parties. A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote."
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Dookus
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:54 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
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I won't put too much faith in that anecdote yet. I tend to think that NH primary voters are pretty savvy.
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Mattforclark
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #17 |
18. That's so not the point |
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That has to be against the law.
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maddezmom
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #18 |
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Edited on Fri Jan-09-04 11:01 AM by maddezmom
something going on there, but I'll reserve judgment for now.
edit: to clarify statement
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democratreformed
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:31 AM
Response to Reply #20 |
42. Yeah, it sounds really bad |
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but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
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maddezmom
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Fri Jan-09-04 12:30 PM
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Jerseycoa
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:01 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
22. Where's this one coming from now? |
maddezmom
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:02 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
24. it's at the bottom of the survey page |
Jerseycoa
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:04 AM
Response to Reply #24 |
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I hate to go to sleep anymore. Every day brings more bullshit.
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Mattforclark
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #22 |
27. The analysis of the poll |
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just click on the ARG link.
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Barbara917
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:03 AM
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Killarney
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:03 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
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I wonder if the ARG reported that to the press yet. That must be looked into!
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DancingBear
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
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Edited on Fri Jan-09-04 11:06 AM by DancingBear
Mattforclark,
Where did you hear of this? Is there any corroboration, or is it 'he said, she said?. If you can provide more details, I'll try and check with some contacts in NH.
Until then, I must remain skeptical.
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Killarney
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #32 |
38. It's at the bottom of the page that is linked in the OP. |
CMT
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:08 AM
Response to Reply #11 |
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like someone is trying to hurt Dean.
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dajabr
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Fri Jan-09-04 10:53 AM
Response to Original message |
15. Undeclared 169 174 176 177 177 |
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What does everyone make of this?
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Leilani
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:00 AM
Response to Reply #15 |
21. There are more Independents |
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in N.Hampshire than Dems or Repukes.
They are always the wild card.
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SahaleArm
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #21 |
33. Exactly and almost 90% of them voted for McCain in 2000 n/t |
Dookus
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Fri Jan-09-04 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #15 |
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NH voters are notoriously fickle. If their unknowns are high, it's nothing more than standard operating procedure.
However, I will venture to guess that the unknowns are less likely to go with the frontrunner. It seems they already know Dean and are waiting to see something else.
If we look at the last week of polling, it seems Clark is the recipient of their attention.
But I'll say again - we really won't know much until the Iowa caucuses.
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Padraig18
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:02 AM
Response to Original message |
23. Wow! Only Dean and Clark make the 15% cut-off. |
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Bodes well for them, but not so well for anyone else. this could get very interesting....
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SahaleArm
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:02 AM
Response to Original message |
25. Who's scamming for votes? |
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Edited on Fri Jan-09-04 11:22 AM by SahaleArm
Over the past 2 days of calling, a number of older respondents registered as undeclared voters have reported that they have received telephone calls from a campaign informing them that they will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary because they missed the deadline to switch parties. A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote.
:wtf:
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Mattforclark
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:05 AM
Response to Reply #25 |
31. Frightening, but don't jump to conclusions |
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It could be Republicans too. I think it was supposed to be Republicans who conducted push polls for Dean and against Clark a few months back.
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DoveTurnedHawk
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:50 AM
Response to Reply #25 |
44. I Suspect It's More Trippi Sliming |
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Edited on Fri Jan-09-04 11:51 AM by DoveTurnedHawk
This is the guy who stole tickets from Cranston supporters who had traveled all the way from California by engineering a mass fraud upon Cranston's campaign, after all: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=85218If he's capable of this, he's easily capable of mere phone fraud. DTH
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in_cog_ni_to
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:06 AM
Response to Original message |
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Another day, another boost in the polls! WTG, Wes! :bounce:
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Rowdyboy
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:07 AM
Response to Original message |
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Now the rest of my day can begin...I've been watching since around 7am...Are results released over the weekend?
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DancingBear
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:22 AM
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1-2 points per day is unbelieveable!! It will (hopefully) feed upon itself until the 27th.
I'm going to NH on the 24th - can't wait!!
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Kahuna
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:24 AM
Response to Original message |
41. Thanks for posting this, Nancy! |
OKNancy
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Fri Jan-09-04 12:02 PM
Response to Reply #41 |
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see my guy in the picture? He's not a "pink tutu" Dem.
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Snivi Yllom
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:33 AM
Response to Original message |
43. let the Dean-Clark war begin |
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I expect a week of mega nastiness between them.
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Dookus
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:58 AM
Response to Reply #43 |
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Edited on Fri Jan-09-04 11:59 AM by Dookus
I expect a lot of nastiness. But I don't expect two-way nastiness.
Clark has already shown he's going to take the high road in the primaries. I think he'll be more than willing to get down in the mud in the general. I get a sense that he really, viscerally hates Bush. He's gonna do something with that.
However, if Clark continues to climb, he's gonna take a lot of hits from the other Dems. And he won't take them lying down. I think Clark's shown a "shock and awe" approach to attacks.
As much as people think he's an inexperienced politician, I would wager that he can get into it with the best of them.
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Kahuna
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Fri Jan-09-04 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #45 |
46. I think Clark will wait until the last couple of weeks... |
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before the voting to give the others the verbal beat-down they have been begging for.
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