AP-Ipsos poll Jan. 5-7: Bush Wins; Clark Best Head to Head

[Jerseycoa]

Wesley Clark by 49-42 (by 7)
Howard Dean by 54-39 (by 15)
John Kerry by 54-37 (by 17)
Dick Gephardt by 56-35 (by 21)

"Men, evangelicals and rural voters are supporting President Bush by big margins at the start of this election year, while traditionally Democratic-leaning groups such as women have more divided loyalties, an Associated Press poll found."

<snip>

"Bush is in significantly better shape with the public than either Bill Clinton or the first President Bush were at this stage in their presidential re-election bids and about the same as Ronald Reagan before his landslide re-election victory in 1984.

"In the AP-Ipsos poll, Bush has a big lead when matched against several of the leading Democratic candidates. He led Howard Dean by 54-39; led John Kerry by 54-37; led Dick Gephardt by 56-35; and led Wesley Clark by 49-42.

"The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults, including 774 registered voters, was taken Jan. 5-7 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points."

Source: AP / SFgate

[LTR]

1. One thing about this poll

Is that the Dem candidates have relatively little name recognition so far.

I'm sure more people know who Scott Peterson is than Dean or Clark or Kerry or any of the other candidates.

Let's make note of this, and check back in a few months.

[Jerseycoa]

3. Ya got that right :)

[cally]

14. The sad thing is that will probably be true on the day

of the election. Still more will know about our candidate by then.

[BOSSHOG]

2. Too bad for bush the election isn't held now

There are numerous negatives waiting in the wings for the bush administration, and they are all of their own making. The constant lies must be weighing heavily on the little republican dutch boy. He can't hold up until November. The flood will be cleansing for America. And the only poll that counts will be taken on election day.

[Bombtrack]

4. considering the name recognition, national head-to-heads are meaningless

at this point.

We Clark supporters should explain why Clark could beat bush based on the issues, history, and political scientific projections based on geography, demography, and ideology

Not these polls at this point.

State polls, where the candidates are well known, like Iowa and New Hampshire(also a very close red state and a very close blue state) head-to-heads against Bush are much more acurate

[Jerseycoa]

7. Just watching trends

When Dean tops these poll numbers are posted, so why not?

[Bombtrack]

12. But I think that we're more politically astute than Dean-supporters

ya know?

[ryharrin]

13. Wow, that's a more disgusting post than usual

from you.

[TexasPatriot]

16. hrm....

assuming we might well NEED those Dean supporters down the road.... telling them they're not politically astute isnt really the most politically astute thing to do...

insults are not cool

[Rowdyboy]

18. Ya think?

Why go out of your way to piss people off. Its counterproductive.

[Bread and Circus]

5. Good to see Clark right up there.

[HFishbine]

6. A quarter of the sample are not registered to vote.

I've seen polls of likely voters and registered voters, but never an election poll that included unregistered voters. Hmmmm.

[Snivi Yllom]

8. fishy poll

Itis designed by the press to bash Dean

[ClarkGraham2004]

11. Of course it's fishy, Dean isn't #1 in it!!

[kerry-is-my-prez]

23. Cognitive Dissonance alert!

n/t

[maddezmom]

31. kick

[CMT]

9. we have a tough campaign ahead whoever we nominate

Bush has numbers comparable to Reagan at the beginning of '84 and a media in his back pocket.

[maddezmom]

10. yes we sure will

[andym]

15. Right, it's going to be difficult. Wait til the real painting begins...

Right. Wait til the real painting begins.

See my old thread for analysis:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=61185

[MIMStigator]

17. writing on the wall

eom

[windansea]

19. interesting trends in national polls

Like this one and the USA Today poll below

Dean's 39% unfavorable is a BIG warning indicator and can't be dismissed by name recognition

Howard Dean
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
2004 Jan 2-5 28 39 17 16

Wesley Clark
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
2004 Jan 2-5 37 26 21 16

http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2004-01-06-poll.htm

[gulliver]

20. Clark getting better and better.

They had him in a near tie with Dean yesterday. Today he is starting to show his strength against Bush. Think I'll go donate again.

[Pontus]

26. Wait until the Repubs point to Kosovo...

wanting to fire on Russian troops, his support of Bush until just recently, his lack of diplomacy...

You'll wish you had voted for Lieberman!

[JPJones]

21. Dems win with...

a moderate candidate.

Dems lose with a lefty/goofball candidate.

[stickdog]

22. Proving one thing.

It's easier to be popular when the media is giving you a free ride like it is for Bush & Clark.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

25. Dean has been getting a free ride for a year until now... They didn't even

mention Clark's name at all....

[stickdog]

33. Dean hasn't done anythig wrong. All the supposed controversy

surrounding him adds up to a big fat nothing -- much like the General's political record.

[BootinUp]

24. surprising?

Not.

[MIMStigator]

29. Not.

eom

[windansea]

27. kick for sanity

:kick:

[Lefta Dissenter]

28. I've already declared

that I'll only believe the polls that show what I want to see, so this one is moving in the right direction!

However, I have a question. Don't you think that for any of the Dem candidates, when it comes right down to it, they'll do better against bush than the current head-to-head indicates?

If I pretend I'm not ABB (which I definitely AM) - say I'm a Clark supporter, and someone asks me how I feel about Lieberman (or anyone else) vs. bush. I just might be tempted to say, "Well, I'm not sure - I think that the only one I'd vote for against bush would be Clark." But then when it comes down to it, when I'm in the booth completing my little arrows (yes, we have a GOOD system here...), even if (gasp) Lieberman shows up in the D column, I'll complete the little arrow that points at Lieberman.

Does this make any sense? We're still so focused on our own candidates that our responses might be more firmly ABB once we have an actual nominee, regardless of who it is.

Just my opinion, which I usually choose to believe is correct, but in this instance, I'm not sure! :shrug:

[hedda_foil]

30. Wacky sample population.

Ipsos Reid is a fine polling group. My question is why the AP wanted them to poll the general adult population rather than at least registered voters or (best) likely voters.

This poll really can't be compared to polls using a more reliable sample group.

[bain_sidhe]

32. Maybe they're trying to get a read on "new voters"?

Dunno, but Dean keeps saying he'll bring in new voters, so maybe they're trying to get a feel for what the results might be if people who don't normally vote DO vote in the next election? In any case, I'm not too impressed with national polls at this stage, no matter who they include in the population sample. And, in fact, given our electoral college set up, I'm not sure ANY national poll has much value. both the primary and the general elections are state by state contests.