I'm seriously wondering about how secure Dean's lead really is. I am Clark supporter--so I'll admit that my perceptions may be tainted a bit, however there is some stuff that I've been chewing on for a while now and it is all coming to a head rapidly...
1. Iowa is all about organization. The labor presence in Iowa is dominated by the Building trades--and they have been united in support for Gep. I'd seriously consider the idea that Gep's support in that caucus is much stronger than polling data has shown.
2. A Poll out of Des Moines just coming out (cited here at DU) showed Dean is favored by 29 percent of Iowa Democrats and Gephardt by 25 percent, a result within the margin of error for the survey conducted by KCCI, a Des Moines, Iowa, television station. Senator John Kerry came in third with 18 percent, and 13 percent of the state's Democrats are undecided.
3. NBC aired a report last night (with tapes) of Dean when he told a Canadian public affairs program four years ago that the Iowa caucuses were "dominated by the special interests" and a waste of time. This is a really bad time for him to be heard saying that kind of thing...
4. A guy on here who was on the ground for Clark in NH posted a couple weeks ago on here that support for ALL the candidates was really soft. Well, two weeks ago the number of undecided voters WAS much higher, but even now, the undecided number is still at 16% with some significant shifts--Indicating the voters ARE soft on support for candidates even when they express a preference.
Dean has dropped about four points in the last week, according to The American Research group poll today.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/Further, in this same article from American Research Group, there are some funny calls being talked about in NH that some (rightly or wrongly) are attributing to Dean's campaign. If that kind of rumor is floating out there will the NH voters be annoyed and reflect that at the polls?
What does that all add up to? If enough Iowa voters are offended by being called a waste of time, Dean could well drop enough to be in third. Well, I'm seriously wondering what the impact in NH will be if Dean does finish second or even maybe third behind Kerry in Iowa.
There are gonna be a core group of Dean supporters up there in NH--but I'm wondering if maybe, given that soft support in NH, his lead will erode down to a few percentage points when that election is all over with.
That following round of elections is in the south and west. I agree with the folks who say that Dean support in the south is gonna be hard won. IF there is no clear win for Dean in NH or Iowa, he's gonna be in real trouble heading into those South/Western Tuesday elections on Feb 3.
I am not able to call it right now. The fat lady ain't singing yet, and to be honest, I don't think she's out of her dressing room.
What do you guys think? I'm not interested in slamming Dean or anybody else, but I'd like to hear what the folks who are tied to Dean think, and what the rest of you think. Is there reason to wonder how secure Dean's lead is?
Laura