ELECTION MODEL:NEWSWEEK 49-46 KERRY! THE BLUE LINE CROSSED THE RED LINE

[TruthIsAll]

See it here!



WANT MORE OF THIS?
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[NMDemDist2]

1. we're getting there n/t

[Liberal Gramma]

2. We'be been waiting for this to happen!

Thanks for being the bearer of good news.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

3. What does that mean?

I looked at the chart, what does the blue line crossing the red line mean?

And have you seen the American Prospect article???
http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8694

[TruthIsAll]

5. The Blue Kerry 3-poll moving average line has finally

crossed the Red Bush 3-poll moving average line.

Read the legend at the top of the graph.

What it means is this: Kerry is making his move.

He's closing the deal.

BUSH IS TOAST.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

6. Good deal, thanks!!!

[AndyP]

4. now that's what I like to see

Just think of how high it will go when we talk about something that Bush really doesn't have a clue about. Not that he had one to begin with.

[missouri dem]

7. Thanks for your work.

I am anxious to see the latest Zogby battleground polls. I understand that he is predicting Kerry by 9 percent.

[mconvente]

9. when do the zogby numbers come out?

n/t

[DemFromMem]

8. A 9 point bounce!

Bush was leading in this poll by 6 points before the debate and is now down by 3. Has any President lost this much ground so rapidly in modern history during the final weeks before the election?

[TruthIsAll]

10. He's only just begun...n/t

tia

[oscar111]

12. Undecided NOT break for kerry.. or do they?

a killjoy at DU told me the undecidecds of august are not the same as those of october.

thus, in aug i could not give a challenger the bulk of undecideds .

Now that we are in early oct, is it accurate to give kerry most of undecid's? was killjoy accurate about august?

Is early oct too early to give kerry most of the undecide's?

[TruthIsAll]

17. There are still the same 8% undecides that there were in Aug.

Undecides are undecides. Period. And at least 2/3 go for the challenger. This bit about only last-minute undecides going to the challenger is BS. If someone is still undecided in August, that's because they don't like the incumbent. They want to buy from someone new.

So that means Kerry stands to pick up 5-6%. Most polls have it 47-44, or 46-46. so 8-10% undecided. Maybe more.

Let's look at the Newsweek poll. Its Kerry 49-46. That leaves 5% to undecided/Nader.

Give Kerry 3%. Give Bush 1%. Leave 1% to Nader et al..

Kerry 52%
Bush 47%

I like it. Sounds about right.

[Oak2004]

11. I'm not surprised

If this momentum can be maintained, Bush is going to lose even more ground as a direct result of what happened during this debate.

Bush's lead has always been very soft. The lead reflected the fact that, with the the media all but ignoring Kerry and coddling the right, the only thing most voters knew about Kerry was via Bush/Rove and company. What's more, most of what they knew about Bush also came straight from the asses' mouth. All of the indicators other than personal popularity have long been showing deep dissatisfaction with the direction this nation is headed. People hate Bush -- they just didn't know it yet.

When the public got to see that Kerry was not the man the Bushies had been telling them he was, they saw they had a candidate who stood for what they themselves stood for and spoke of the things that they themselves had been thinking about the nation (take a look at a lot of the opinion research -- the public has long agreed with Kerry on policy). They understood that they had been lied to about Kerry's character. And they saw Bush, not as the strong and firm leader that they had been led to believe that he was, but as the weak and mean man that he really is.

The "understood they've been lied to" part is, I think, a big one here. Not only was Kerry nothing like the man Bush had been saying he was, Bush was positively oozing "I'm lying to you" body language throughout the debate. The electorate already knew they had been lied to about Iraq, and had suspected they'd been lied to about other things. Now, they saw the liar of these lies, in action, lying to their face. The electorate is, unfortunately, often ill-informed, but the electorate isn't stupid and doesn't put up with being taken for a fool once they realize that's what's going on.

[oscar111]

14. Name Clark Sec. defence TODAY, plus cool racist voters with guarantee of

jobs for all.. so no fear competition from ethnics for scarce jobs.

also reducing the race vote, would be to cool blockbusting house value loss, by natl policy that will guarantee house value by some FHA guarantee.

Racism is bush's biggest strength. we need to TALK about it and defuse it with concrete new policies like the two above.

[gardenista]

15. Today's NYT article should help with the "we've been lied to" meme nt

[The Revolution]

16. A friend of mine noticed the lying as well.

He's definitely a right wing guy, or at least was in the past (he would get angry if anyone said something bad about bush). As the debate began though, he commented something like "Why does bush look like everything he's saying is a lie?" That's not an exact quote but he definitely though bush looked like he was lying.

Best news is though, at the end of the night he conceded he would probably be voting for Kerry. (Though the main reason for the turnaround is probably that his marine reserve artillery unit has been busy retraining as infantry, for expected deployment to Iraq early next year)

[DaveinMD]

13. Jimmy Carter

against Reagan lost that much. Of course, that's the election I compare this one to.

[JCMach1]

18. by my math a 14 point swing in the Newsweek poll>>???

Is that correct?

That is virtually unprecedented if true... And, if they maintained their party biases in the poll...

[TruthIsAll]

19. Right. Newsweek had a 14-point swing to Kerry in one month

.....Bush Kerry Other

10/2 46 49 5
9/10 50 45 5
9/3 54 43 3
7/30 44 52 4
7/9 45 51 4

[JCMach1]

20. This is a huge turnaround given the demographics of the

NEWSWEEK poll...

What will Zogby say on Tu/Wed???

Kerry up by 3-5%... with the swing states once again tipping Kerry.

MI and Penn will be leaning Kerry... Kerry will have small leads in FL, WI, MO and Iowa...

OH will be too-close to call.

[Hot Water]

21. The thing that happened

Many many people unfortunately listen to the spinners. Either because the issues are a little too complex or they don't rationalize. As long as Kerry was being battered by negative advertising, they bought into it because the media was mostly perpetuating that same bs.

But this was just too big of a blow out for any of the media to hide in their biased world of spin. They would have been ridiculed to death if they said Bush looked remotely good in this debate.

So now the media has caused all these people to be reinforced with the great image of Kerry, which we knew all along. And that's why the polls are so drastically changing. It will now be self perpetuating in Kerry's favor because of this tremendous debate showing. It's now like a Kerry snowball rolling down a hill.

[TruthIsAll]

22. Red Sails in the Sunset....

BIG BLUE