What do people make of what Cityview reports?

[blueloo]

So I really enjoy reading Cityview online and find the "Civic Skinny" section always enjoyable. They always seem ahead of the curve with their anonymous inside scoops, this weeks Civic Skinny is especially interesting. Here are the parts I found most interesting and would like to hear peoples' thoughts on them:

"Republicans have been doing a fair amount of polling, we've been told, and the numbers say that democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Blouin is "double digits" ahead of anyone else in his field. What Republicans specifically plan to do with the information is not known as of yet, nor were we told of any numbers breaking down the race between Jim Nussle and Bob Vander Plaats. In other related bad news for Secretary of State Chet Culver, rumor has it that Roxanne Conlin is jumping his ship to support Patty Judge, and Ed Skinner is doing the same to support Blouin."

"Are GOP chances to build on its Iowa House majority so great that House Minority Leader Pat Murphy is bailing out? Maybe so, several signs suggest. One GOP insider tells us that it's looking better and better for House Republicans' chances next fall. Only a handful of their incumbents are retiring next year, meaning the Democrats will focus even more on Senate control. Meanwhile, our source tells us that the House Republican districts that are being vacated are primarily safe seats, freeing up even more resources to pick off a couple Democrat incumbents. America Coming Together - along with their substantial resources to help House Democrats last time - has disbanded, and now even Murphy seems scrambling to get out of there by eyeing a run at Congress. This news, if true, is a gut punch for House Democrats. It could bring with it more retirements from House Democrat incumbents tired of being in the minority, and more PAC money to the House GOP from pro-business groups who want Republicans to keep at least one legislative chamber. "Things are definitely looking up for the House GOP," our source said."

--http://www.dmcityview.com/skinny.shtml


I don't know where to start, Pat Murphy for Congress? Is Culver sinking? What do progressives think about a Blouin candidacy? Which campaign has the "mo"? Which state legislators are going to support Fallon? Why is the Dem. State House 2006 prospects sound uneasy while the Dem. State Senate 2006 prospects are making Senator Iverson smoke more cigarettes? Is there usually a correlation where both are up or both are down? Fill me in. Discuss!

[DU9598]

1. Usually accurate

Cityview is usually fairly accurate. However, a lot of this is old news. It is true, and has been known for quite some time, that Roxanne Conlin is going to support Patty Judge for Governor. I don't think that is a sign that Culver is in trouble ... it is just that Roxanne sees Patty's chances as very good in November and she is a woman. I don't read anything more into it. I know it was a tough decision for Roxanne to make. This is good news for Patty because Roxanne carries a lot of weight and she knows Iowa voters, just ask John Edwards. One more week and Edwards would have won the caucuses. But, the primary will be a big battle and I see Culver in the nomination fight until the end.

I don't agree Pat Murphy is making the jump to the Congressional race because he believes the Democrats will not take back the statehouse. Rather, he sees a Congressional seat that is 80% likely to go Democrat. I for one would try to make it in the primary for that seat knowing those odds, so who can blame him? If he does not win - and I don't think he will win that primary - I am fairly certain he will run again for his statehouse seat. I think the Democrats have a lot of young, fresh faces who are already campaigning for Nov. 2006.

As for Blouin, I would be shocked that he is 10% up on anyone right now - likely republicans trying to cause Chet and Patty to have trouble raising money. I am not that excited about him as the nominee, but I would certainly vote for him in November. I think we have a lot of great candidates and that we are going to have a strong team in November.

[Debi]

3. I agree with you 100% about Murphy

Who wouldn't want to become Congressman _____________ (fill in blank here)? But what would Murphy getting in the race do to Dubuque County? Isn't that Dickinson's strongest county? If the two of them split the county who has the advantage assuming the other two large counties go to their respective candidates (Black Hawk to Braley and Scott to Gluba?) Can Murphy run in the General for his statehouse seat if he runs in the Congressional primary (legally I mean)? And if he loses the primary will he succeed in reelection for his house seat? That seems quite a bit to gamble in the hopes of serving in Congress (if it was his plan he should have started sooner making it a race in Dubuque against Dickinson).

On the Governor's race I think it's just too convoluted to have anyone ahead right now (if a poll was done weekly I'd bet there'd be a different Dem in the lead each time). Conlin's leaving (if she does) won't hurt Culver because everyone in Des Moines knows that Roxanne would support any viable female candidate - because she's female (and don't jump up and down about CMB in the caucuses...she wasn't going to win because of many other problems that had nothing to do with her being a woman). Blouin scares me because he's the most conservative Democratic candidate we have (except for when it comes to big business...hell, let the tax revenue flood gates open) and we cannot ignore his anti-women's reproductive health care stance. I do support Culver, that should be noted, but because of those two things Blouin would never have been on my radar screen anyway.

Anyone here attend the Iowa Federation of Labor Convention and see the candidates speak? Haven't heard much and would like to know the reaction from the labor crowd.

:hi: good to see you on the board!

[Broke Dad]

4. First Dem Gov candidate to bail? Gronstal

Gronstal announced today that he is pulling out of the race for Governor.

[Debi]

5. Saw it, thanks!

He'll do well as the Senate Majority Leader! :hi:

[Broke Dad]

2. Has anybody looked at the open/vulnerable House seats?

The Dems lost several close close House races in 2004. I haven't done a seat by seat analysis. Has anybody?

I agree the wave of Republican State Senators retiring (including Larson, Brunkhorst,Lundby) make it more likely the Senate will go Democrat. Iverson is looking hard for his next gig. So the Republican donors will/have bailed on the Senate Republicans and will double their bets on the races that Rants thinks he can win/protect. Murphy does not seem as well matched to deal with Rants as Dick Myers. If Murphy is going to run for Congress, he is too late for 2006. Anybody predict the next Dem leader in the Iowa House?

On the Gov race, Blouin is the only Dem (except maybe Judge) that has the potential to pick off moderate Republicans. I agree that Blouin is not progressive enough, but whoever we nominate needs 51% + in November 2006. Like Nussle on the R side, Blouin starts the race a couple of laps ahead of his opponents. Chet should start thinking about what he will do in January 2007 when he returns to the private sector. His support is like water on a mall parking lot after a big rain - wide but very shallow.