This week's Civic Skinny 12-15-05

[Debi]

Civic Skinny: Much uncertainty

Who is and who is not supporting Blouin?

Insiders in both Mike Blouin's and Chet Culver's gubernatorial campaigns have said that, while important, Culver's impressive lead over Blouin in recent polls will likely shift when the labor folks decide later this month which candidate they will endorse and when the campaign contribution numbers are released in January. Blouin had been thought to be a shoo-in for union support, but now some top party folks are saying otherwise. "No one wants to get behind a candidate that cannot win when they'll eventually need the support of the candidate who could win," a top Democrat told us. "The deal is that name ID does matter, and it's not so easily dismissed as they would like it to be. To actually move horse-race numbers you've got to start with your favorability and unfavorability ratings. And to move those numbers, people have to know who the hell you are. And sure, you can say, like your source does (Cityview, Dec. 8), 'We'll buy our name ID when the time comes.' But, if you're a donor or a stakeholder, where do you want your first million bucks going: to try to buy yourself out of the hole and get 20 points worth of name ID just to get into the game... or to the next step, where campaigns are actually won and lost, banking your favorability and using your money to move a message and fight the definition battle?" It's a point that is not lost on the labor folks.

At a recent cattle call of sorts, when union people had each candidate up to feel them out, to hear them pitch, most thought it was going to be a Blouin coronation. But distant-third candidate Patty Judge "pissed on Blouin's parade" when she passed out a Greater Des Moines Partnership resolution from 2001 regarding that group's opposition to a public labor agreement for the Iowa Events Center. Attached to the resolution was a bio-box from The Des Moines Register showing that Blouin ran the Partnership from 1999-2003. Said an individual with close ties to the labor community, "People started talking and asking out loud, 'this is the guy we're supporting?'" Blouin was also noticeably absent at a recent PLA rally, which has caused even more strife we're told. "There is a rebellion sort of taking place," our union source said. "Will it change anything? I don't know." So we asked another individual who might and he said this: "I suspect UAW will go with Blouin because of Tom Vilsack and Dave Neal's close relationship. I'm unclear about AFSCME since they have a new president. And the IDP is already in the back pocket of Blouin with (Sally) Pederson as chair, (Mike) Milligan as executive director, and (Travis) Brock as political director. They all owe their political lives to Vilsack."

So does this mean that Vilsack is backing Blouin after all? When the governor's go-to guy, Matt Paul, announced last week that he was taking over Blouin's campaign, it started quite the "shit storm," according to representatives of other campaigns and party bigwigs, who told Cityview that Vilsack spent most of the day Paul made his announcement on the phone saying "he was the last guy to know" and it did not happen with Vilsack's "blessing" and that the governor is staying "neutral." Said a Culver backer of Vilsack's supposed impartiality, "No one believes a word of it - except the Fallon bloggers." And with good reason, many have said. The governor sometimes acts as if Blouin is his man. And Blouin's wife continues to work in the governor's office, providing a nice set of eyes and ears for her husband in case the governor truly isn't providing under-the-radar help. Nevertheless, Blouin's biggest problem continues to be his pro-life stance, and that his view on stem-cell research alienates some liberals as well.

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http://www.dmcityview.com/skinny.shtml

[IA_Seth]

1. Blouin & PLA's

Is anyone here familiar enough with the Blouin camp to get a real feel for his stance in regards to PLA's?

I know the survey distributed by the Hawkeye Labor Council here in Cedar Rapids for possible endorsements had a question or two on PLAs and it seems to me that previous anti-SLA behavior would be a pretty big jab in the eye of Labor.

I am STILL undecided, leaning away from Blouin, but would like some clarification from someone in his camp or someone who may know what he is thinking.