Look at the internal numbers on almost all of the Survey USA polling <
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c90fa3e7-dd42-4dfd-917b-a05519181646&c=49>.
You'll see that Kinky and c4n3p currently get 24% and 19% (respectively) support of self-identified liberals and 20% and 26% (respectively) support of self-identified Democrats. This support should shift back toward Bell as the election grows nearer and the likely voters start basing their preferences on issues (this will increase after the anti-liberal/anti-Democratic policies of Kinky and c4n3p come to light) and replace the current basis for most adult's professions of support which is mainly a test of name identification at this point.
Also, consider the excellent analysis at the Lone Star Project <
http://www.lonestarproject.net/archive/2006voteproject.pdf>. They project Kinky taking 4 votes from Bell/c4n3p for every vote Kinky siphons off Perry. At that rate, Kinky only has to get into the low teens to guarantee a Perry re-election.
The current poll numbers reflect that voters are answering polling questions with almost no information about where the candidates stand on the issues that will shape the race. As that information comes out, it damages c4n3p's bogus claim to be an independent and her appeal among liberals and Democrats will fall. Likewise, when Texans learn that Kinky is nothing more than a self-promoting Republican with a fondness for cats and alternative fuels, his support among liberals and Democrats will wane.
Kinky cannot win under any scenario that I (or any political consultant I've read about) can imagine.
c4n3p cannot win unless she grabs BOTH a huge chunk of Bell's vote AND a huge chunk of Perry's vote AND Kinky virtually drops out. Assuming a voter turn out comparable to a non-presidential election year and the partisan breakdown reflected in the '04 Bush-Kerry election, c4n3p cannot even win if she gets 33% of the Democrat vote and 40% of the Republican vote if Kinky takes as much as 1% of voters that would have otherwise gone to c4n3p <
http://www.lonestarproject.net/2006votesim.html>. Unless something dramatic happens, c4n3p simply cannot move the right successfully enough to take more than 40% of the Republican vote while simultaneously moving to the left to take more than 33% of the Democratic vote.
Bell, on the other hand, has an excellent chance of winning if he can get 90% of Kerry's vote. That shouldn't be too tough because how many voters are going to vote for David Van Os and then NOT vote for Bell? I see that voter profile as limited, especially when election eve polling shows that Kinky has no chance of winning whatsoever and c4n3p has a snowball's chance in hell.